Rick Ackerman

The chart raises the question of whether Friday's sharp bounce precisely from the 'D' target of a fairly large, bearish pattern is the start of a major rally. We'll keep an open mind rather than speculate, trading this vehicle as opportunities present themselves. Subscribers who bottom-fished as I suggested would be cushioned by partial profits booked after TLT reversed with a powerful leap. The run-up caused Feb 22 138 calls to more than quadruple in value, but whichever options you used, gains already booked should be sufficient to put your mind at ease about holding onto a few for a swing at the fences. You can rotate them into the future with calendar spreads, but in any case please let me know in the chat room if you need further guidance. ______ UPDATE (Feb 15, 11:15 p.m. EST): The resumption today of TLT's death spiral should serve to renew our focus on the 3.01% rate I've projected for the long bond. It currently sits at 2.36%, up from  1.70% in early December.

The 1875.10 rally target of a 'reverse' pattern tracing back to November remains my minimum upside projection for the near term. The pattern has produced stellar 'mechanical' gains for subscribers who used it to get long on the dip to the green line back in October. Looking ahead optimistically, I'll suggest using the new, larger 'reverse' pattern shown to stay with the trend no matter how erratic it becomes. The pattern paradoxically yields a more modest target at 1916.40 than some smaller ones I could have used. However, because this is gold, which so often disappoints, I am being cautious. As always, a decisive move through this Hidden Pivot resistance on first contact would be a welcome sign that the rally has farther to go -- perhaps much farther. We shall see. _______ UPDATE (Feb 15, 11:23 p.m.):  The rally's failure by $1 to surpass key peak at 1882.50 recorded in November warrants a cautious outlook. Even if the peak eventually is exceeded, the likelihood of significant upside from there has already decreased. _____ UPDATE (Feb 17, 6:15 p.m.): The futures appear all but  certain to achieve the 1916.40 target, which served to keep us confidently on the right side of a balky trend. Let's see how bulls handle this 'hidden' resistance, since an easy move past it would portend a continuation of the uptrend. You can short there with 'camouflage' if you've made some bucks on the way up.

The chart shown uses a slightly more ambitious and gnarlier pattern than my latest one in gold to project a rally target at 26.12.  It has yielded a profitable 'mechanical' buy, although not as lucrative as the one in gold. However, it should serve in any case to keep us confidently aboard the uptrend for as long as it continues. A second 'mechanical' entry could be attempted if the futures revisit the green line (22.59), but I am recommending this only if the implied drop follows a high in the 'sweet spot' between p and p2. We should also be alert to a possible resumption of weakness, since there is a downtrending conventional abc pattern that tripped a 'mechanical' short on last week's rally to x=23.72 (Daily chart, A=25.54 on 11/16).

Quotes are headed to at least 101.88, but more likely to the maxed out D target at 107.63 shown in the chart. We've been using a 105.08 target that was based on the March contract to keep us comfortably in step with crude's sensationally steep rise, but switching to the April futures has revealed a pattern of greater clarity. The $100 mark is of course psychologically important, but it also raises the prospect of a global economy dependent on cheap energy collapsing under the staggering load of even marginally higher prices. Will the inevitable price reversal be the catalyst for the catastrophic deflation that central banks have struggled for decades to avoid? That would be my guess. Whatever is coming, we'll stay disinterestedly focused on the two targets given above to get a sense of whether prices could conceivably rise to as high as $200 a barrel, as at least one noted forecaster has been predicting.

Bertie has displayed little of its former market-leading brio lately, but it is nonetheless in a robustly impulsive uptrend that projects to as high as 51,556 over the near term. That target is speculative at this point, since the calculation uses a low at 42,011 on Friday that may not endure. A bigger picture using a 'reverse' pattern dating back to October offers the prospect of a run-up to as high as D=61,163, but we'll need to see how bulls fare at p=47,070 before we can confidently assess the strength of the uptrend.

Thinking back over the last 30 years, it's hard to recall a single instance when traders ultimately lost money diving into stocks on 'bad' news. There was a hot mess of it on Friday, when shares plummeted to presumptive bargain levels on reports that Putin is about to invade Ukraine.  That's bad news indeed, although the talking heads seem as clueless as the rest of us about what it will ultimately mean.  The end of NATO? Possibly. But even then we are left to wonder how  NATO's demise would change the global balance of power. And is Biden's further mishandling of this crisis likely to doom his presidency?  There's no denying that he has ever looked stupider or more incompetent, and that's saying something. His first disastrous gaffe was to announce to the world that America's reaction to an invasion would depend on the scale of it. In other words, if Putin invades only a little bit, the U.S. would stand down militarily. Biden's handlers had already drummed up some very harsh economic sanctions a couple of weeks ago, but the jury is still out on whether the measures are so extreme that they will cause the collapse of the global banking system. We should have an answer in the fullness of time, but for now it couldn't hurt to get a vegetable garden started in your back yard as spring approaches. Realize that the myriad shortages we are experiencing these days could seem relatively mild if shock waves from Ukraine prove unexpectedly destructive to worldwide trade. Where Red and Blue Agree Biden could have placed the blame for whatever happens in Germany's lap by simply pointing out that the U.S. has no compelling reason to risk blood and treasure in Ukraine if Germany's leaders can't summon the gumption or

Although headlines can move the markets, more often the opposite is true -- i.e., the cyclically-ordained ups and downs of stocks tend to color our perceptions of the news. We are watching this dynamic unfold in real time as Russia prepares to trample Ukraine. Headline writers have done their best to gin up a seemly amount of dread, even if few understand Ukraine's crucial significance to the balance of power in Europe. But if and when Russian tanks make their move, leave it to Wall Street bulls to shrug off a mere land war on foreign soil and then celebrate it with an exuberant surge. Even the pundits would be baffled into thinking investors somehow got it right -- that Ukraine really doesn't matter. Unfortunately for us all, Kiev's collapse could turn out to be just a warm-up for China's impending invasion of Taiwan. Look for the stock market to grow more and more agitated in the months leading up to this increasingly  likely event. Although it has been anticipated for years, it may have become inevitable with President Biden's extraordinary lack of leadership. The only thing that could be preventing it from happening now is China's expectation that the U.S. economy and political system are about to topple. Why put Chinese troops at risk, they may be asking themselves, when Mao's dream of triumphing over America is so close to becoming a reality? Energizing a Dying Bull In the meantime, the stock market's fright-mask feints, dives and swoons will be viewed by the herd as opportunities to scoop up 'bargains'. If any event has the ability to revive a dying bull market, it is the brutal subjugation of Taiwan by our most powerful and threatening enemy. Again, a bull rally in the wake of such a disaster would confuse

AAPL began the week with an impressive rally but couldn't summon enough additional thrust to surpass a key 'external' peak at 177.18 recorded on January 12. This doesn't necessarily mean the stock won't eventually push above the peak and the all-time high at 182.94 notched a week earlier. However, it does suggest that the move will be lacking in power and the new high potentially fleeting. That's as much speculating as we can do at the moment, so let's sit back for a few days and let price action speak for itself. ______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 7:55 p.m.): Bulls have consolidated late January's steep rally and are now ready to take on the record high at 182.94 recorded on January 4.  The pattern shown in this chart is a bullish reverse head-and-shoulders formation, but even if you were oblivious to it, the visual impression it gives is unmistakably positive.

Short-covering extended the stock market's bounce for a second week, but without generating any impulse legs on the daily chart. On balance, bears still appear to hold the edge, mainly because of the steep pitch and power of January's sell-off.  We should give bulls wide berth nonetheless, since the week ended with an earnings blowout at Amazon and a 20-1 stock split for Google shares that will enable the riff-raff to own the stock just like the big boys. Let's greet the new week from the sidelines, until we get a clear sign of where things are headed. _______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 8:24 p.m. EST): Signs this week have been clearly bullish, which suggests that the bear rally, if that's all it is, is doing its job effectively.  If the move achieves new record highs, which looks like no worse than an even bet at the moment, we may be pondering the same question even then: is it for real, or not? Instead of worrying about it or trying to guess how and where a top might occur, we should simply trade with the trend. Nudge me in the chat room if you want further guidance during regular hours.