June Gold looks headed to at least 3730.00, but that's provided it can get past the 3533.90 Hidden Pivot I ballyhooed here for a while. (The target worked well, to put it mildly, getting within 0.6% of the actual so-far top at 3510.) If June Gold were to drop by $200 now, it would not necessarily be reason for concern; for in fact, 3135.90 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 2938.00. These numbers come from the monthly composite chart (see thumbnail inset), where A=1618 in November 2022. Best bet for tightly stopped bottom-fishing: 3261.50, the 'd' target of a pattern discernible on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 3:08 p.m. EDT): The savage drubbing gold has received today reversed from such an obvious place that a relapse seems likely. The low for June Gold occurred at 3211.20, a hair above an important low recorded on May 1. Look for the selling to continue to at least 3147.70 before the futures find a decent foothold. (Note: The pattern on which this target is based is poorly formed, so I would not advise trying to bottom-fish there with the usual tight stop-loss.) Alternatively, a pop above 3352.70, however unlikely at the moment, would put bulls solidly back in charge. The selling feels more engineered than organic, and I doubt it threatens the long-term bull market. However, we’ll let the charts decide, since the downtrend would likely have farther to go if bearish ABCD patterns of varying time frames start to exceed their ‘D’ targets routinely
The midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 32.493 has repelled three bear assaults, hinting that the futures want to go higher. Notice that the first time the futures came down to the red line, setting up a 'mechanical' short at the green line (x=32.986), the trade produced a quick $2400 profit when it plummeted once again to the red line. But this appears to have spent sellers, and that's why the chart is bullish, at least for the near term. Since I've provided a 'best bet' for a tightly stopped bid in June Gold (see tout above), let me do the same for July Silver: 32.480, exactly 40 cents below where it was trading when the clock ran out on Friday's impacted action. ______ UPDATE (May 12, 5:05 p.m.) The nice thing about no one giving a rat's ass about Silver is that when Gold gets crushed as it did today, Silver does necessarily fall in sympathy. It just might, however, so be prepared for a drop to 31.505 (60-min, A= 33.835 on 4/29). You can try bottom-fishing there with a very tight stop-loss if you know what you're doing.
I've flagged two rally targets that lie, respectively, at 72.23 and 111.59. The first is 'guaranteed' to be reached, but I cannot yet certify the higher target as a sure thing. However, GDXJ will be drawn more immediately to the 66.71 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown (see inset). The likelihood of this increased with last week's failure to reach the 'd target of a minor bearish reverse (rABC) pattern. If buyers pop it through p=66.71 easily, this vehicle would be on track for a move up to 75.04, a tad better than the assured objective at 72.23.
The dollar's unaccustomed burst of strength last week actually generated some hubris, along with speculation that the bear market begun in late 2022 might be over. Although it's too early to be confident about this, the possibility warrants our attention. The move so far tripped a theoretical buy signal at x=100.43, the green line. It's a strong bet that the uptrend will continue to p=102.93, the midpoint Hidden Pivot, but we'll be better able to judge its strength and durability once we've seen bulls interact with p. A completed move to d=107.94 wouldn't signal an inevitable end to the dollar's 2.5-year dither, but it would put DXY in good position to break out for a run at 2022's high, 114.78.
Bitcoin’s poke last Thursday above a 102,355 ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ has shortened the odds that it will reach the 130,189 target. (Note: Because of a change in my coordinates, these numbers differ slightly from the price points given here earlier.) Moreover, a pullback to x=88,362 (the green line), however unlikely, would trigger a juicy theoretical ‘mechanical’ buy, stop 74,419. Let’s wait and see how easily and/or decisively the upthrust exceeds p on first contact. Two consecutive weekly closes above it would all but clinch more upside to at least p2=116,247.
At the risk of being premature, I've used the weekly chart's breach of a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 56.30 as evidence that crude is likely to be trading lower in the weeks and months ahead. This is like trying to call Arizona's election an hour after the polls close, but in any case, sellers' ability to penetrate the support is surely not a sign of robust health. Even now, a rally to x=60.57, the green line, would trigger a mechanical short, stop 64.85. There is no way to estimate how long it will take for this to play out, but in the meantime, we should trade even the rallies with a bearish bias. ______ UPDATE (May 18, 12:43 a.m.): I now see that the short noted above had already triggered at x=60.57 when I posted the tout. I will track the trade nonetheless, using the suggested 64.85 stop-loss. The worst-case target for this gambit is 47.87, a conventional 'D' target where A=69.93 (4/3) on the daily chart. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 2:59 p.m.): I've been bearish or indifferent toward crude for so long that it has become a habit to predict generally lower prices. That said, a fist-pump through 65.78 would grab my attention, since it would indicate more upside to as high as 76.89. I doubt this will happen, but it's always better to be prepared if it does.
We should know soon whether Silver's mini-explosion upward, the second in three months, is just another false start. From a Hidden Pivot perspective, the selloff of the last two weeks is not as bearish as it seems. It triggered an attractive 'mechanical' buy on Monday when it touched the green line (x=86.95). This implies that a bounce will reach p=89.91, at least, before it can stop out bulls with a dip beneath c=85.00. Whether it can muster a finishing stroke to d=92.81 depends on how easily buyers penetrate p on the next rally. _______ UPDATE (May 18, 12:50 a.m.): Bulls held on by a hair when TLT dipped last week to a bottom just 20 cents from the 85.00 point 'c' low of the ostensibly bullish pattern detailed above. _______ UPDATE (May 25): TLT popped a wheelie at an 83.66 voodoo support, but don't expect the bounce to get legs. The low occurred just inches shy of a chasm beneath the watershed low recorded in October 2023 at 82.42. It is too obvious a place for a good bottom to form, nor does the dollar much respect 'technical' tops and bottoms. For now, all we can do is watch.
[The S&Ps are losing steam after recouping two-thirds of their 1400-point loss in March/April. The stall near 5700 has left them hovering in the danger zone, just like the U.S. economy. Will it skirt recession? I have my doubts, even if price action on the S&P chart on April 7 led me to speculate that business would continue to hum along. The index had bottomed slightly above an important Hidden Pivot target at 4820, and so it was no stretch to infer that this may have marked the end of the bear market. Without the chart, though, it's hard for me to imagine that America will skate past recession. A real estate crash is coming, and it's only a matter of time before its mounting weight overwhelms whatever miracles people expect from Trump. His tariff announcements, to the extent they can be construed as bullish for stocks, have lost their ability to affect securities markets for more than an hour or two. He did a deal with Great Britain last week, spinning it as the first of many. That story will not distract anyone from the only deal that matters, however -- with China. No one could be optimistic that President Xi Jinping will be an easy touch, so don't be surprised if stocks take a header this week. Meanwhile, the commentary below will continue to run until an S&P breach of 4820 proves my bullish thesis wrong. RA ] *** A word of advice if you’re looking for bankable information on the direction of the economy: tune out the mainstream media’s cavalcade of Trump-deranged bozos and focus on the 4820 target in the SPX chart above. Think of it as Trump’s lucky number, but also a very good place for these all-too-interesting times to find temporary equilibrium. That is
The slimeballs who manipulate this stock for a living made full use of a short-squeeze opportunity when Microsoft announced earnings after Wednesday's close that unsurprisingly surpassed estimates. What could bears have been thinking?? DaBoyz kicked off the celebration with a $40 rally after the close, then worked their criminal magic again on Friday's opening to hoist the stock a further $10. Realize that no stock changed hands during the spectacular first stage of this maneuver, and only a relative handful of shares traded on the second. The result was an approximately $317 billion contribution to the financial realm's gaseous 'wealth effect'. Most of it came in mere nanoseconds, since that's how long it takes to create an enormous gap on a chart. This is a feat that mere bullish buying could never have hoped to achieve. It required mainly the arrant stupidity of shorts, who dependably acted as though the risk of getting blown out of the water was negligible. If I had to guess where MSFT, financialization's chief instrument for adding fake money to the system, is headed, I'd say to xxx.xx. I don't want to queer the bold, Hidden Pivot magic of this number, so I'll post it only in the chat room.
The futures ended the week a hair shy of a 5736.00 target I'd posted in the chat room. This would have merited an aggressive short if the target had been hit, ideally with at least 90 minutes remaining in the session. Alas, we'll have to reserve these ambitions, since it will be a new game when the futures start to trade again ahead of Monday's opening. The target is still shortable, but squeezing off the trade could be harrowing in the thin-volume nervousness of Sunday evenings. If the June contract blows past 5736.00, be prepared to short the next target aggressively, a Hidden Pivot 'd' target at 5867.00.
