Rick Ackerman

Friday's dive added to the insufferable tedium that has characterized the bullish pattern shown. Its 5144 target has been a guiding feature for two months, not that that has helped much.  A strong dollar has been weighing on gold and will likely get worse, according to some prognosticators. Bullion prices have endured this pressure before and are likely to do so again, but it could mean the 5144 target will be a long time in coming. In the meantime, a pullback to the green line (x=4382.40) should be regarded as a good opportunity to go bottom-fishing. The huge, 4128.40 stop-loss demands a 'camo' trigger if you are game, since the 'textbook' stop would entail entry risk in excess of $25,000 per contract. Using Hidden Pivot tactics, you should be able to reduce that by at least 95% to less than $800. ______ UPDATE (May 22): The futures spent every moment of last week vigorously screwing the pooch in a tight range above x=4382.00.  There are no changes or additions to the analysis and guidance above.

Silver's chart is similar to gold's, but with a significant difference from a Hidden Pivot perspective: a 'mechanical' bid at the July contract's green line (x=69.744) would be less likely to achieve the d target at 93.995 than gold would be to reach its corresponding target. That said, a one-level move, from x to p, looks like it will be a good bet. Expect both Gold and Silver to continue falling at least to x, where 'camo' bids will be warranted. ______ UPDATE (May 22): Last week's funereal dirge changed nothing in my outlook or the trading guidance given above.

Silver's chart is similar to gold's, but with a significant difference from a Hidden Pivot perspective: a 'mechanical' bid at the July contract's green line (x=69.744) would be less likely to achieve the d target at 93.995 than gold would be to reach its corresponding target. That said, a one-level move, from x to p, looks like it will be a good bet. Expect both to continue falling at least to x, where 'camo' bids will be warranted.

Before Friday's kamikaze dive, GDXJ looked like no worse than an even bet to reach the d target at 139.45. Now, however, even though we should plan to attempt bottom-fishing at the green line (x=112.02), we should expect no better than a one-level bounce to p=121.17. This is similar to the outlook I've detailed in the current Silver tout (see above), although it doesn't preclude the possibility of both vehicles eventually reaching their respective d targets. For now, use 112.02 as a minimum downside objective for the near term. Keep in mind that it is neither a target nor a 'hidden' support. ______ UPDATE (May 19, 10:44 p.m.): The trade has triggered. See my 22.41 post in the chat room for details. _______ UPDATE (May 22): No change. The trade ended the week about 30 cents in the red.

In my last weekly commentary, I drum-rolled a 128.19 target that seemed to grow increasingly remote as the futures descended last week to an apparent low at 88.66. However, a potentially robust turnaround was signaled the next day when the June contract bounced, triggering a theoretical 'buy' at 96.65. It is tied to a 'D' target at 120.62, but we'll need to see how bulls interact with the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 104.64 before we can judge confidently whether the target is likely to be reached. The pattern is compelling enough to expect an accurate and reliable assessment of the uptrend's strength.

This chart, with an 8107.25 target, has the virtue of simplicity: it follows all my rules, and that is reason to expect it to work. I've mentioned a couple of lesser targets based on somewhat different coordinates, but, as the song reminds us, it's never good to mess around with mister in-between.  The main subjective concern is whether last week's move past the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=7230,25) was sufficiently effortless to ensure the target, a 23% jump from here, will be reached. Because buyers did not exactly impale the resistance, I cannot guarantee that this will happen. But I am about 75% certain of it, and 95% sure that p2=7668.75 will be achieved.  In the meantime, although a relapse to the green line (x=6791.75) would be read by many technicians as the possible start of a bear market, it would signal a stellar buying opportunity from a Hidden Pivot standpoint. I will mention one other number that could be consequential: 7499.75, the 'D' target of a conventional pattern. But because it comes from a composite monthly chart, we shouldn't expect it to work quite  as precisely as a Hidden Pivot resistance on a chart where all four coordinates are tied to the June contract. _____ UPDATE (May 12, 3:56p.m.): A coincident target at 7498.00 drawn from the hourly chart needs to be considered as well. It is the 'D' Hidden Pivot of a pattern that began on April 12 with A= 6767.00 on the hourly chart.  This is yet one more reason to get short in some fashion when, either Wednesday or Thursday, ES sleazes its way up to 7500, a very round number that is bound to draw a crowd of clowns, algos and short-covering ninnies.  

A bigger picture stretching back a year projects as high as 666.84, but we'll stick with a smaller pattern for now that offers better form and clarity. It has signaled a move over the near term to as high as 464.66, but this has yet to be affirmed by a move through the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=431.34).  That number can serve as a minimum upside projection for the week ahead, as well as a tool for positioning a 'mechanical' buy if the opportunity should present itself. As always, a decisive push past p would shorten the odds of achieving D.

The two-month-long ascent of rates on the Ten-Year Note did an apparent death rattle last week with a run-up to 4.46%. That fell slightly shy of the 4.48% peak recorded at the end of March. I still think the peak will endure, at least for the foreseeable future. This outlook remains to be confirmed, however, by a downtrend that generates an impulse leg on the daily chart. At the moment, that would imply a decline touching 4.22%. I should note that someone who thinks rates will fall is considered bearish on rates. Because this can be confusing, we tend to say that the person is bullish on bonds, since bond prices rise as rates fall. _____ UPDATE (May 13, 6:20 p.m.): So much for my death-rattle theory.  TNX broke slightly above two previous peaks, but there is Hidden Pivot resistance an inch away, at 4.52%. Let's see how bulls fare before we draw any conclusions. If the resistance gives way easily, that will imply more upside to the next at 4.61%. _____ UPDATE (May 15, 10:36 a.m.) Today's breakout has all but clinched a finishing stroke to the 4.61% target flagged above. Let me therefore introduce a new one at 4.75%, my worst case for the near term. I'll also remind you that this is one important economic variable over which Trump has no control, although his eagerness to put a dove in charge of the Fed could be seen as driving rates higher. And mortgages thrusting once again toward 7% will surely not help to Make America Great Again.    

The 'mechanical' buy at the red line (p=4636.30) went in the black last week with a pop to 4775 on Thursday. That would equate to a theoretical gain of around $14,000 per contract, but there is an additional $36,000 of profit potential if the futures reach the 5144.00 target. Price action at p has been wishy-washy, but that is no reason to presume that the uptrend will not reach p2=4890 at least. When it does, you should take off half of the position you hold, either in this vehicle or in an equivalent such as GLD. Be alert to the possibility of a stall or reversal at 4847.40, a truly 'hidden' resistance.