Rates on the Ten Year have receded from a high-water mark two weeks ago of 4.48%, a threshold that came close to throttling mortgage activity with a move above 7%, as well as all other forms of debt financing. It’s difficult to predict at the moment how much more relief borrowers will get, but T-Notes seem likely to fall to at least 4.18% from a current 4.32%. If they touch that Hidden Pivot, any bounce would presumably be merely corrective, since it would follow the creation of a bearish impulse leg via a penetration of March 17’s important, 41.89 low. ______ UPDATE (April 24): Last week’s steep ascent created a fresh impulse leg on the daily chart. The 4.18% downside target has receded, but it remains theoretically viable. We’ll need to monitor two Hidden Pivot levels closely to see whether bulls are about to resume their advance. They lie at 42.91 and 42.50, the respective midpoint and secondary supports of a downtrending rABC begun from March 13’s 43.51 high. If interest rates are about to rise anew, watch for this vehicle to bounce from 42.91 and continue higher.
