Try shorting the 486.17 target shown, since it promises a high-odds climax to the hoax rally that has wafted MSFT into the ozone since May 1. I explained earlier how this trick is done, and I will not belabor the details yet again. However, the manipulators themselves are controlled by forces they do not acknowledge, much less understand, and that's why this pattern will work. It can also be used to bottom-fish a swoon using a mechanical bid at 458.64, stop 449.46. To enhance your odds, I will not drum-roll this target in the chat room, nor make it publicly viewable.
Despite the rabid-mongoose energy of Friday's short-squeeze rally, I'm unpersuaded that this vehicle will not come down to d=97,616 before it stages a meaningful reversal. Regardless, I'd rather do my buying down there, even if we are forced later to attempt it at a higher price that will require more care and effort. In the meantime, we can test the integrity of the pattern by 'mechanically' getting short at 108,404, stop 112,001. We would be shooting for a one-level profit on a pullback thereupon to p=104,808. The trade is recommended only to those who are familiar with my tactics and comfortable using them.
The strong rally materialized on schedule, then stalled almost precisely at the 3423.20 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance that I'd flagged. Bulls will need to exceed this impediment decisively to clear a path for more upside to the 3559.20 'secondary' pivot, and thence D=3695.30. I'd said that last target would take 5-7 weeks to reach, but there can be no guarantees it will be reached at all until such time as p=3423.20 is left choking on prop wash. More immediately, plan on bottom-fishing if the futures pull back to x=3287.10. A 3150.00 stop-loss would be appropriate, but you'll need to employ your own risk-reduction strategy to pare the theoretical entry risk of $13,700 per contract down to something closer to $300. I do this by using a much smaller 'trigger' pattern to get me aboard, a somewhat labor-intensive tactic called 'camouflage'
I almost never use conventional ABCD patterns any longer, but it's the only choice we have at the moment. Fortunately, even lousy patterns that every pinhead and algo on earth see still work with respect to the predictive value of price action at p, the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p). In this case, the decisive move through p=34.142 all but guarantees the rally will reach a minimum D=40.439. It seems odd that the freakish skew of the gold:silver ratio is about to end with so little fanfare, but in this case, all it will have taken to start bringing the two back into line is just a couple of extra-strong rallies in silver that went unmatched by gold.
You can be confident the bull market will reach the 74.87 target shown, given the way buyers speared p=66.14 on first contact. This target is slightly higher than the one given here previously because I've switched to a daily chart that uses a 'marquee' low at 49.33 as point 'A'. This is justified by the power of the impulse leg, although we should still be alert to a possible stall at 74.11, the original target. More immediately, be ready to attempt a 'mechanical' buy at the red line (p=66.14) using a 63.23 stop-loss if the opportunity should arise.
There's no point in sugar-coating it: minor, bullish impulse legs on the daily chart have not been strong enough to reverse the horrific carnage in U.S. Bond markets. Absent some hitherto unimagined turn of affairs, we should expect TLT's slide to continue down to the 77.49 target shown, at least. The short-lived rally in early April to the green line triggered a theoretically profitable short, so we know the pattern is working. It now says p2=81.64 will be the next stop on the way down, so let's use that as a minimum downside objective for now,
The chart promises relief shortly for T-Note rates. The pattern shown suggests they are an opportune short at the green line (x=4.512%), stop 4.630%. That does not necessarily mean they are about to fall all the way down to the 4.161% target. But it does imply that rates will ease to at least p=4.395% before they head higher again, if they do. The secondary pivot, p2=4.278%, promises a tradable bounce as well, although not necessarily a durable bottom.
Sloppy action since mid-May has transformed a slightly promising picture for the dollar into a sorry mess. The bearish pattern shown has already signaled a profitable 'mechanical' short at the green line (x=100.58), and there's no reason it will not continue to dominate DXY until the 96.36 target is reached. The pattern is sufficiently clear and compelling to suggest that a tradable bounce from 'D' is likely, but if not much of a bounce materializes, it'll be time for Katie to bar the door.
The stock market is in a topping process, brazenly manipulated by white-collar carnies who cut their teeth at Sloan, Wharton and Stanford. These newly trained ass-bandits have been working Microsoft shares to hold the broad averages aloft while they offload inventory to widows, pensioners and assorted other bag holders. I described in detail how this game works in a previous commentary. Even though Microsoft, the world's most valuable company, has a $3 trillion capitalization, it costs the perpetrators almost nothing to drive the stock vertically higher, adding hundreds of billions of dollars of gaseous asset inflation (aka 'wealth effect') to the global ledger. Flimsy Reasons When last week ended, the world's largest-cap stock was poking its greasy little snout marginally above the previous all-time high at 468.35 recorded last July. This breakout will not have gone unnoticed by a million dip-buying homunculi, since it is no longer a dip they are buying, but the latest move into thin air. Although MSFT will continue to outperform all other stocks for reasons implied above, I doubt it's short-squeeze histrionics can drag the lumpen mass of securities significantly higher. At best, the also-rans will make marginal new highs until the last buyer runs out of flimsy reasons later this summer. It has never been clearer that mass mental-illness, far more than invented 'fundamentals', is what drives stocks higher in the late stages of a bull market. If news mattered, the 1914-ish darkness of today's headlines would have crushed the Dow six months ago.
Last week's push above the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 85.91, is the most bullish price action we've seen in more than a month. It has given way so far to a shallow consolidation with the potential to push this symbol to the 86.51 target shown. It would also make a pullback to the green line (x=84.60) an appealing 'mechanical' buy. You could do so with a bid there and no stop-loss, since the textbook stop at 83.29 would probably be overkill. For now, use p2=87.21 as a minimum upside projection for the near term. Decisive progress above the pivot would shorten the odds of a further run-up to the 88.51 target.
