The uptrend easily exceeded the 106.84 rally target given here last week, so I am presenting a longer-term view with a much more ambitious objective at 124.72. More immediately, however, there's a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 112.16 that we can use as a minimum upside projection for the near term. As always, if buyers surpass it easily, that would portend more upside to at least p2=118.44, and thence to the D target itself.
The massive terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel over the weekend will unsettle the geopolitical world for the foreseeable future. The economic implications are potentially too grave to be treated merely as a tradeable event; investors should instead be thinking about safeguarding capital. Will the price of crude spike to $117 or higher, as predicted here last week? A chart supporting that conclusion appears in retrospect to have been prescient. However, I doubt the $117 price will be hit until the global supply of oil has actually been curtailed. Hezbollah's entry into the war could cause this to happen overnight. They've been firing rockets at strategic targets in Israel, a provocation that threatens to unleash a retaliatory response frightening to imagine. Electromagnetic pulse (EMP), for one. The use of a pulse weapon would amount to Hiroshima without the body count, forever altering the way war is conducted. Cities, regions or even nations could go dark instantly, transported back to the Stone Age when everything powered by electricity ceases to work. Whatever happens, the possibilities are too complex, and potentially too disastrous, for investors to handicap. These all-too-interesting times have become still more interesting, leaving all of us at the mercy of the news as the holiday season approaches.
November Crude has pulled back sharply after topping last week a hair from the 94.76 Hidden Pivot target billboarded here. The weekly chart not only allows for another burst higher, most immediately to the 98.65 target shown here; it can also be used to project a blowoff to as high as 117.22. Indeed, there is nothing unreasonable or illogical about this interpretation. Moreover, one could reasonably infer that the decisive penetration this month of p=90.67 has already made a move up to 117.22 no worse than an even bet. _______ UPDATE (Oct 2, 10:56 p.m.): The correction targets 87.20 most immediately, but an easy breach of this Hidden Pivot support (90-min, A= 95.02 on 9/27; B= (90.35 on 9/29) would imply the correction has farther to go.
TLT has turned higher because it is synched with a 4.81% target for the Long Bond that was precisely achieved last week. However, there is room for another leg up, to 4.98%, and therefore room for TLT to fall commensurately to the 80.84 target shown in the chart. TLT's rally should be tradeable nonetheless, and some subscribers have jumped on call options suggested by 'Spartacus' in the chat room. Implied volatilities are running at least a third higher than historical, so the bet will face some headwinds no matter what happens. It is not encouraging that the rally from Thursday's 87.10 bottom, steep though it was, could not push impulsively past last Wednesday's 89.62 'external' peak. Here's the chart.
The futures finished the week with a whoopee cushion rally that allowed subscribers who got long the day before to come away with a profit of as much as $3,000 per contract. The pattern, with a 4462.25 rally target, remains intact for next week, provided the E-Mini can hold above the 'C low at 4277.00. After topping on Friday, it came down hard, giving up all the day's gains and settling near the green line (x=4323). This generated a theoretical 'mechanical' buy signal for a presumptive second shot at p=4369, but I would not have advised it so close to the final bell. _______ UPDATE (Oct 3, 8:13 a.m.): The futures are struggling to hold above d=4299 of the small reverse pattern shown in this chart. If this 'hidden support' fails as I expect it to, the December contract should be presumed headed to D=3956 of the larger pattern. It is gnarly but not illogical.
Although AAPL's fall to the 164.90 target (see inset) was all but ordained two months ago when hard selling crashed the midpoint support at 181.57, the stock's handlers have made it an ordeal for bears to profit easily. Shorting 'mechanically' on the squeeze up to 189.90 worked well, and I expect bottom-fishing at 164.90 to be a money-maker too, since the pattern is not very obvious. The rally would have the potential to hit 182, but I'll suggest using a trigger interval of $1.50 to get long. If you are unsure about how to do this, ask in the chat room for guidance when appropriate.
The Dollar Index came down hard last week after topping to-the-exact-penny at a 106.84 target that had been advertised here. The rally was due for a rest, but I doubt the peak will endure for long. The ABCD rally pattern shown should help us gauge the health of the dominant uptrend. If DXY achieves D=106.64 without providing any single- or two-level pullbacks for a 'mechanical' buy, that would affirm that pent-up demand for dollars remains strong. This is going to create big problems for the world's financial system, particularly for debtors who owe dollars, and for a central bank that remains committed to tightening.
Gold is close enough to the depths of despair that we might hope for a rally. However, since hoping is for losers, we'll just watch and learn to like it as the futures swirl down the crapper. Ordinarily, Friday's slight overshoot of D=1865.20 would be no cause for alarm, but in this case we'll infer the worst -- i.e., that the support should have held if gold were ready to turn. If you want a slim reed to grasp, use the 1855.40 target of this gnarly pattern. It's okay to back up the truck there, but only if you use a very tight stop-loss. (Note: I have not boldfaced and colorized the target because I don't want to draw attention to it.) _______ UPDATE (Oct 2, 9:19 a.m.): The $7 rally from within less than a dollar of the number given above would barely have paid for a Soho lunch, although the very tight trigger interval (TI) I'd advised would have prevented a loss. The subsequent relapse means gold is still in gold-is-garbage mode. A little overdone, don't ya think? _______ UPDATE (Oct 2, 11:07 p.m.): The futures look bound for the 1777.10 target of the reverse pattern shown here. I am awed by the viciousness with which the bullion bankers and their scummy friends in high places have defenestrated, drawn-and-quartered, impaled and flayed those who might have intended to take delivery on September COMEX contracts. When there's no 'physical' available to supply, Their solution is to crush demand.
Putting aside the depressing question of how low Silver could go, the 21.75 downside target of the pattern shown is pulsating with opportunity. It's the legit (i.e., non-sausage 'B' low) that brings this picture together. I have not boldfaced the target (or a similar one in gold) because I don't want to queer its potential magic for purposes of bottom-fishing. The daily chart requires a large trigger interval of 37 cents, but I'll suggest looking for a smaller 'natural' trigger on, oh, the 15-min chart when the futures get within 25 cents of the target. _______ UPDATE (Oct 2, 11:28 p.m.): This chart shows how the trade suggested above could have produced a $1,200 win on four contracts going against today's overwhelming downtrend. The 'natural' trigger shown was the only available choice, and it yielded an interval of 5 cents. However, the trade was signaled at 6:15 a.m., well before the regular session began, and many of you have been asleep.
GDXJ was headed higher when the week ended, but the chart suggests this was no reason to celebrate. Although a strong rally to the green line would set up an appealing 'mechanical' short, I doubt it will get there. That means we could try to squeeze off the short at the red line, a type of trade we don't do that often. The stop-loss would be at 34.87, calculated by taking a third of what we stand to gain if this vehicle eventually drops to D= 30.36. Eagle-eyed Pivoteers might notice that the impulse leg is not strictly kosher, since the would-be 'external' low at 34.04 recorded on March 16 is in the shadow of June 29's 33.95 low.
