DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:103.85)

The dollar has been falling for seven weeks, but a chart stretching back two years shows that the bull market begun at that time still has credibility if no longer youthful vigor. My bull market target remains 124.79, with a lesser objective at 112.14 that can serve as a minimum upside object for 2024.  Notice that just a little more downside to the green line (x=102.95) would trigger a routine ‘mechanical’ buy.  Thereafter, the anticipated rally to at least p=106.31 would give us an objective way to determine whether the bull is robust enough to reach the targets given above. If this occurs, it would imply that the global financial system is no longer in Kansas. Indeed, deflationary pressure on all who owe dollars would have turned the commercial banking system and the American heartland into a landscape of bankruptcies.