Free

The futures were on a 'mechanical' sell signal to D=6925.25 when the week ended.  It came in the final hour of the session, well after the trade was triggered 'conventionally' on the way down on Thursday afternoon.  Price action continued a lengthening string of Fridays so boring that a trader fixated on his screen could fall into a trance. We may not know for a few weeks or longer whether this has been topping action or  alternatively a consolidation for a run at higher prices.  In any event, I wouldn't suggest bottom-fishing at the target of the pattern shown, since it is compromised by a coincident low on Wednesday that is bound to attract a thousand clowns. ______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 12:40 a.m.): Sellers went bananas over more Trump tariff bullshit, sending the futures down to 6911.00 so far. That's 2.0 points from the 6909.00 target I billboarded in the chat room last Tuesday as a back-up-the-truck number.  It still is, provided you know how to set up a 'camo' trigger on the hourly chart. The tactic is explained in detail in the Hidden Pivot Course I've made available free to subscribers. _______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 10:10 a.m.): Sellers crushed the 6909.00 support, putting the futures on course for a rendezvous with 6819.75 or worse.  In theory, 6869 has triggered a 'mechanical' buy and would be the second signaled at the green line of a bullish pattern that projects to 7163 (60-min, A=6596 on Nov 21). That pattern would be wrecked, however, and stopped out, with a print at 6771.00.

The stock spent most of the week lollygagging near the 457.04 'secondary Hidden Pivot' of the bearish pattern shown.  Its eventual  target is 444.89, a $15 fall from here. However, the breach of p was such a laborious affair that I cannot guarantee that it will be achieved.  But if p2 is decisively exceeded to the downside, or if the stock closes for two consecutive days beneath it, odds of further fall to 444.89 would shorten significantly. For now, 444.89 should be viewed as a worst-case low for the near term. It is also a back-up-the-truck number for bottom-fishing, since even with the somewhat obvious pattern, D=444.89 cannot possibly give way without a struggle. ________ UPDATE (Jan 21, 5:57 p.m.): After the stock MSFT has put in a tradable bottom at or very near 431.89, the rally along a big-picture C-D leg would have the potential to reach 593.79. Seems farfetched, I know, but the stock will face a test we can rely on near 469.29, a major midpoint Hidden Pivot that coincides with the 2024 top. Neither of those Hidden Pivots exists yet, and their exact, respective locations will depend on where the actual low occurs. Please note that the time stamp for this post, along with the last price, come from my update in the chat room yesterday. 

There is nothing to suggest this vehicle will not reach the target at 135.90, a once-unimaginable milestone that was first signaled in mid-November when GDXJ crossed up through the green line. The subsequent, confident move through the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 111.63, significantly shortened the odds the target would be realized.  This now appears all but certain, and although it would be implicitly bullish for gold, we shouldn't be too concerned if the respective moves appear to be somewhat out of synch. The ABCD pattern is sufficiently clear to imply that the correction following the final run-up to the target could be long and painful. _______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 11:10 a.m.):  It is headed to 139,55 at least, or to 144.86 if any higher. Currently 134.68, just off the high.

The futures punched through the 79.38 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown on Friday, but when they settled above it, that all but guaranteed the uptrend will continue to at least 85.235, the 'D' target of the pattern.  Because the point 'B' high is pure 'sausage', I've made certain to start the pattern with a distinctive one-off 'A' low.  For that reason, D=85.235 should show precise stopping power that can be shorted with a 'camo' trigger. Any further progress to the upside would likely encounter new resistance at 86.860, the target derived from sliding 'A' down to December 31's 69.575 low. It would be shortable as well. _______ UPDATE (9;38 a.m.): The 85.235 target has stopped the rally, but not precisely and probably not for long. _______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 9:17 a.m. EST):  March Silver's decisive push through p=86.235 this morning has put D=103.215 solidly in play: https://bit.ly/3NHjcnz

GDXJ's ascent over the last month left quite a mess on the hourly chart, but it all fits so nicely within the 13-point channel shown that we can probably rely on it for predicting important turns both above and below.  An ambitious target at 135.90 has served as a bullish lodestone for quite a while, and even though I am growing increasingly skeptical that it will be reached any time soon, meaning with the sensationally steep slope of the last six months, I'm ready to set my skepticism aside if this vehicle vaults the trendline and holds above it for at least two days.

Bitcoin tallied enough votes to remain on the list, but that doesn't mean it will get any respect just for being here.  This week's chart avoids visualizing an ABCD pattern that would probably prove too conventional for a rabid badger like this one. Instead, I have extrapolated an imagined head-and-shoulders that follows from the suggestive homunculus traced out so far.  If it materializes as imagined, we should see a potentially important top near 113,000 in April. And what a tedious slog that would be --unsatisfying for bulls and bears alike, since the former have long expected Bitcoin to use $100,000 as a launching pad for a moon shot to $200k or higher, while the latter, regardless of how high the king of cryptos goes, will never be convinced it is good money.

The Dow is poised to hit 50,000 this week, a milestone that would have seemed surreal when the blue chip average, plagued by covid, was bottoming near 18,000 six years ago. Although there can be little doubt that Trump helped kick stocks into high gear, one could argue that a powerfully bullish economic cycle made the man rather than the other way around.  Stated another way, the stock market's spectacular rally reflects a cyclical mood-change across America that made Trump's election not merely possible, but inevitable. Would shares be at these heights with Kamala Harris in the White House?  It seems implausible, since she could never have matched Trump's ambitious agenda. This is not to suggest that all or even most of his initiatives will succeed. In fact, some of the most important ones could lay an egg. Tariffs, for instance. They amount to little more than a new tax on global trade, with consequences that have yet to produce a clear result, let alone a positive one.  His promise to make life more affordable for most Americans could also be a non-starter for reasons explained here a couple of weeks ago. And his plan to revitalize Venezuela's oil production has already been labeled 'uninvestible' by the CEO of ExxonMobil. As for the reshoring of manufacturing. no one is talking about how revived and new factories would have to be practically worker-less to compete with heavily robotized plants in South Korea, China, Japan and elsewhere. What Jobs? And what about Trump's plan to radically reorganize the mortgage market so that young people can buy houses?  Although this sounds appealing, what will be the source of their income? The job market is changing so rapidly, especially with AI increasingly replacing more white-collar workers, that even seasoned recruiters can no longer predict

We've been using an ambitious rally target at 135.90 for a while, but the pattern shown looks so heavy that it's time to focus on corrective patterns on the lesser charts. This will give us a more finely nuanced 'read' on trend strength, and perhaps even telegraph an exuberant leap into the bearish gap that occurred when the markets opened on Monday after Christmas. The immediate target is a 'd' Hidden Pivot at 115.12, and it would need to be penetrated easily and decisively to suggest a very-bullish 'island-gap reversal' in the making, Alternatively, if the rally fails, brace for backsliding to around 108, where GDXJ consolidated in early December for its powerful run-up to the 122 peak recorded on December 26.

The speculative frenzy in silver has provided welcome relief from AI claptrap, but will it last?  There are a hundred theories about why silver has come exuberantly to life after lagging gold for so long.   I've been puzzled myself, since my technical runes suggest that gold futures could make an important top at $5132, about $800 above Friday's settlement price.  Silver would likely peak at the same time, unless the squeeze on physical supply were to pick up enough climactic energy to cause an historical readjustment in the gold:silver ratio. The Founders thought 15:1 was the correct peg, implying silver could be trading for $342 with gold at $5132. That sounds farfetched, but stranger things have happened in the financial world, especially in markets caught in short squeezes. What is most peculiar about the current run on silver is that it probably couldn't have occurred without Trump's blessings.  He has said he wants a much higher gold price in order to monetize America's few remaining, unhocked assets (including residential real estate). Letting silver off the leash would make almost everyone feel at least a little richer.  The problem is, some of Trump's most powerful buddies in the banking business are short silver up the wazoo.  Citi and B of A alone reportedly have loaned out at interest $4.5 billion of silver they do not possess, exposing themelves to potentially catastrophic losses if AG quotes should soar anew. Trump's Fortunes And what if gold goes no higher than $5132?  A corresponding top in silver followed by a steep slide in both could cap Trump's fortunes. It would certainly destroy the comforting illusion that financial markets are under control.  Of course, crazy ideas like that can only persist in bull markets.  If stock averages were to sell off by 30%-40%, which they