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Bottom-fishing at the 257.71 target of this pattern looks so promising that I hate to queer its magic with this semi-public ad.  The target looks likely to be reached because the stock never poked above p=266.91 after first penetrating it on the way down. Still, the failure to bounce precisely from the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2=262.31) is more than a little mystifying, since it is highly unlikely the support was front-run. (I've masked two coordinates for proprietary reasons).  I would call this a back-up-the-truck trade if the target had been disseminated and triggered intraday. As things stand, however, you'll need to use small-pattern 'camo' to get aboard with risk held to a practical minimum. _______ UPDATE (Mar 5):  Sunday's rickisms in this space set a new world record for the number of forehead-slapping errors your editor has committed in a single tout. The 257.71 target boldfaced in the original tout, above, did indeed nail a tradeable low with the eye-popping precision you have come to expect from Rick's Picks. The trouble is, I used MSFT in the header, but the tout pertained to AAPL. Now here's where the rickisms grew so thick that some of you may have feared your editor had imbibed a bad dose of LSD; for in fact, the chart included with the tout showed neither Microsoft nor AAPL, but April Gold.  Fortunately, or perhaps not, there seems to be only one subscriber who remotely cares about Microsoft, and it is was hhis comment in the chat room about my "janky" tout that prompted this update. To make amends, I've replaced the gold chart with one of MSFT so that  you can see that things worked out almost precisely according to the forecast.  Because the alert subscriber is one of the most experienced traders who frequents the

It took buyers all of three days to gnaw through heavy resistance at the 90.165 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. Adding to the challenge was the 92.015 peak recorded on Feb 4.  It had served as a stop-loss for a 'mechanical' short from 10 points lower that I had suggested paper-trading to gauge the strength of the uptrend. Although Friday's rally did not impale p, which we would have taken as a sign that more upside to d=116.43 was in-the-bag, bulls made such short work of it that there is little doubt the target will be reached. For now, however, let's use p2=103.298 as a minimum upside projection for the near term. It should show enough stopping power to get short, if only briefly, but I am recommending the trade only to subscribers who know how to manage the risk by using a small-interval trigger (aka 'camouflage'). _______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 3:11 p.m.): Check the chat room for timely posts related to Silver -- and please note that they all reference the MAY contract. Basis the May, d=117.485, p2=104.279 and p=91.073

GDXJ had a constructive week, exceeding p2=152.56 just days after shredding the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 142.01. This one-two punch has all but guaranteed more upside in the days ahead to at least D=163.11.  Given the clarity of the pattern, there is almost certain to be tradeable resistance there. But the coordinates are too visually obvious to expect precise stopping power, so you'll need to fashion a 'camo' trigger if you plan on getting short. Naked-shorting call options is another way to go, provided you understand the risks.  This is the best way to get short if you expect a few days' worth of evasions, feints and obfuscations as GDXJ attempts to shake off traders who will be trying to get short at 'our' D target. ______ UPDATE (Mar 5): So much for my seppuku-worthy guarantee. Bears turned tail at 157.49, nearly $6 shy of the 163.11 target. wouldn't it be crazy if the 'mechanical' buy about to be signaled at x=131.46 went on to achieve 163.11? I wouldn't bet the ranch against it, since stranger things have happened.

[Events in the Middle East have overshadowed my narrow economic critique of President Trump in the commentary below.  His alliance with Israel to knock out global jihad's command structure is likely to change the world in ways no one can predict. It will also test the idea that only military might can secure a lasting peace.  RA ] Stocks used to turn feisty toward the end of the week, but as the chart shows, the last few 'Freaky Fridays' have been pretty tame. My gut feeling is that this picture of tedium is the calm before the storm, and that stocks are being heavily distributed ahead of a major breakdown. Although I promised a few weeks ago that I wouldn't mention the words 'topping process' again, the alternative would make me sound like a Wall Street shill. The Street's best and brightest have been flat-out bullish on stocks since the 1929 Crash, having failed to issue a sell signal even on stocks implicated in some of the biggest scandals of the last hundred years. To cite a particularly notorious example, many of them were gung-ho on the shares of Equity Funding until the moment regulators halted trading in the stock one day in March 1973. Read about it here. So why have shares been unable to develop a head of steam on Fridays, when irrational exuberance has typically been highest?  There are two likely reasons. For one, the AI Bubble has popped. This occurred without much fanfare on January 29, when Microsoft shares dove $60, or 12%, overnight. The shills initially took this for a one-off event, an 'adjustment' in the share price of a big company they felt was heavily over-invested in AI. Rick's Picks saw it as the beginning of the end for AI mania and said so

I posted a moderately bearish note in Silver in the chat room Friday, but by day's end the little monster was threatening to trash my logic.  The March contract was on 'mechanical' short signals in two different time frames, one big, the other small, and things could have gone either way.  In fact, things went bonkers, stopping just shy of the 86.13 print needed to negate the lesser 'sell' signal.  Above it sits 91.285, which some may recall as the location of a stop-loss for the bigger-picture 'mechanical' short.  We should wait until these numbers are actually exceeded before we open a can of whoop-ass, but bullion looked primed to blow higher when trading resumes on Sunday.

Robot demonstrations are notorious for going comically awry. Seat Robby at a staged dinner and he will stab himself in the eye with a forkful of make-believe mashed potatoes. Have him put a butter dish back in the refrigerator and he'll slam the door on his head. So what, then, are we to make of this video, which showcases China's latest entry in the global competition to build robots that are more human? Stunning, isn't it? This is a kung-fu ballet, performed by acrobatic children and a troupe of robots who move with the gracefulness of dancers at the barre. When they abruptly shift gears, vaulting into ten-foot-high somersaults, they land squarely on the rubberized balls of their feet, perfectly balanced. Even more impressive is that there are a dozen of them doing these elaborately choreographed moves in perfect synchronicity. Search Google for a skeptical take on all this and you have to call up a fifth page of results to find anyone who doubts the video is real. Ever the skeptic, my instinct is to disregard all the oohs and ahhs and focus on the doubters, just as many of us do with product reviews on Amazon. Here's a jibe on X from an observer who supposedly witnessed a similar demonstration in Shenzen a month earlier: "The [robots were] slow, shaky and could barely shuffle, let alone do any of this. This isn't the first time [Chinese manufacturer) Unitree has used CGI to fake capability." "13 Billion Views" So who's telling the truth? It's an important question, since the video reportedly has attracted 13 billion views so far. That's according to Chinese news sources, but does the outside world have any reason to trust them? The country's leaders have a strong incentive to show off the nation's technological prowess,

Last week's decline in 10-Year rates was the biggest since September, catalyzed by Fed easing of 25 basis points.  The chart implies there could be a further fall to as low as 3.706%, but I have my doubts. In fact, the steep slide triggered a 'mechanical 'buy' at 4.073% that suggests rates are more likely to rise from here or perhaps a little lower, to at least 4.452%, than they are to fall below 3.937%.  If they crack that last number hard, however, odds of more slippage to 3.706% would be no worse than 50-50.  FYI, I've substituted the 10-Year for the 30 because the shorter duration is a more sensitive indicator of interest rate risk. ______ UPDATE (Feb 20): As anticipated, rates have taken a so-far modest bounce from just beneath last week's settlement level. If the upward trend is going to get legs, a push above the 4.206% peak recorded on Feb 11 would announce it.

From a Hidden Pivot standpoint, the only thing of interest that occurred in this vehicle last week is that it failed by 11.50 points to hit a juicy target at 7023.00 that I'd advertised.  We were therefore unable to get off an opportune short, not because the target was front-run, but because the gratuitous daily blips that have been passing for rallies lately were too weak to reach it.  A logical conclusion is that the clueless meandering within the channel shown is starting to break down, and that the two recent breaches of the lower line might be significant.  I promised to be sparing in my use of the words 'topping process', but that 's what we are lookng at, it would seem, and it has become almost too tedious to watch.  However, since I always try to leave you with a price target no matter how muddled the price action, I'll proffer a bearish one at 6748.00. which comes from conventional A=7027.25 on Feb 3. It can be traded despite the pattern's obviousness,  but I'll recommend it only to those of you who know how to execute a CI (counterintuitive) entry.

I restored AAPL to the core list last week with reservations. The company is a dim also-ran in the AI race, having only recently found a partner in Google, the creator of Gemini. There is also the chance Musk will eventually make iPhones obsolete. He keeps insisting that Starlink has no phone on the drawing board, but he's probably just trying to screw with Tim Cooke's head.  When the XPhone finally arrives, with superior hardware and no monthly service charge, that will be it for Apple.  Concerning the chart, AAPL's steep slide on Friday triggered a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (259.09), stop 243.41. Ordinarily, we're supposed to feel queasy about excuting such trades, since they will always be going against the trend. In this case, however, I will recommend it only to Pivoteers who know how to fashion a reverse-pattern trigger that risks no more than $3.00 per share theoretical on the entry.  It should be good for a one-level ride to p=274.76 if it works. _______ UPDATE (Feb 20): The long position suggested from 259.09 ended the week $5 in-the-black. Continue to hold for a shot at 274.76, or even 306.09. You can raise the stop-loss to 255.81.