Last night's explosive move through the 70.82 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown has removed any doubt its 86.51 target will be reached. It seems improbable that there should be a lid on an energy market that is now on wartime footing, but that's what the chart implies. However, if the move even slightly exceeds the target, and thence early April's slightly higher 'external' peak at 87.63, a lurch toward the magnetic $100 mark would probably become inevitable. In any event, your trading bias should be aggressively bullish until such time as 86.51 is reached.
There's no point in sugar-coating it: minor, bullish impulse legs on the daily chart have not been strong enough to reverse the horrific carnage in U.S. Bond markets. Absent some hitherto unimagined turn of affairs, we should expect TLT's slide to continue down to the 77.49 target shown, at least. The short-lived rally in early April to the green line triggered a theoretically profitable short, so we know the pattern is working. It now says p2=81.64 will be the next stop on the way down, so let's use that as a minimum downside objective for now,
The chart promises relief shortly for T-Note rates. The pattern shown suggests they are an opportune short at the green line (x=4.512%), stop 4.630%. That does not necessarily mean they are about to fall all the way down to the 4.161% target. But it does imply that rates will ease to at least p=4.395% before they head higher again, if they do. The secondary pivot, p2=4.278%, promises a tradable bounce as well, although not necessarily a durable bottom.
Sloppy action since mid-May has transformed a slightly promising picture for the dollar into a sorry mess. The bearish pattern shown has already signaled a profitable 'mechanical' short at the green line (x=100.58), and there's no reason it will not continue to dominate DXY until the 96.36 target is reached. The pattern is sufficiently clear and compelling to suggest that a tradable bounce from 'D' is likely, but if not much of a bounce materializes, it'll be time for Katie to bar the door.
The stock market is in a topping process, brazenly manipulated by white-collar carnies who cut their teeth at Sloan, Wharton and Stanford. These newly trained ass-bandits have been working Microsoft shares to hold the broad averages aloft while they offload inventory to widows, pensioners and assorted other bag holders. I described in detail how this game works in a previous commentary. Even though Microsoft, the world's most valuable company, has a $3 trillion capitalization, it costs the perpetrators almost nothing to drive the stock vertically higher, adding hundreds of billions of dollars of gaseous asset inflation (aka 'wealth effect') to the global ledger. Flimsy Reasons When last week ended, the world's largest-cap stock was poking its greasy little snout marginally above the previous all-time high at 468.35 recorded last July. This breakout will not have gone unnoticed by a million dip-buying homunculi, since it is no longer a dip they are buying, but the latest move into thin air. Although MSFT will continue to outperform all other stocks for reasons implied above, I doubt it's short-squeeze histrionics can drag the lumpen mass of securities significantly higher. At best, the also-rans will make marginal new highs until the last buyer runs out of flimsy reasons later this summer. It has never been clearer that mass mental-illness, far more than invented 'fundamentals', is what drives stocks higher in the late stages of a bull market. If news mattered, the 1914-ish darkness of today's headlines would have crushed the Dow six months ago.
Last week's push above the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 85.91, is the most bullish price action we've seen in more than a month. It has given way so far to a shallow consolidation with the potential to push this symbol to the 86.51 target shown. It would also make a pullback to the green line (x=84.60) an appealing 'mechanical' buy. You could do so with a bid there and no stop-loss, since the textbook stop at 83.29 would probably be overkill. For now, use p2=87.21 as a minimum upside projection for the near term. Decisive progress above the pivot would shorten the odds of a further run-up to the 88.51 target.
Silver's long-term chart has been promising a run-up to at least 39.272 for years, but don't hold your breath. It's been stuck in an $8 range for more than a year, but bulls show little inclination to leave the comfort zone any time soon. Moreover, you can see that even a $7 drop to the pattern's green line wouldn't have much impact on the big picture, even if investors would likely be feeling pretty disappointed by then. The most promising opportunity I can discern for bottom-fishing or augmenting a long-term position would come on a pullback to 30.033, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a corrective pattern projecting to as low as 26.058. The trade would be invalidated, however, by an upthrust exceeding 34.008. _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 1:04 a.m. EDT): I'm just a tad skeptical about today's big rally, which fell six cents shy of the 34.995 'd' target of the super-gnarly reverse pattern shown. Let's stipulate that the futures close for two consecutive days above it, or trade above 35.800 intraday, before we assume they're headed significantly higher.
Rates on the Ten-Year Note retreated last week precisely to a key Hidden Pivot support at 4.39%. We are likely to know soon whether the downtrend will continue, since the reverse pattern here is so clear and compelling. A two-day close beneath the support would portend more slippage to as low as 4.16% over the next 4-7 days. The bet would become even juicier on an intraday print decisively below the red line -- say, 4.34% or lower. If the downtrend reverses from 4.28%, however, that could indicate an important tone change and the possible resumption of the uptrend that has dominated since early April, when rates bottomed around 3.88%.
The internet has evolved into the perfect medium for spreading crime into every household and every age group, and now Bitcoin is fast becoming the perfect medium for pushing a more violent kind of crime out into the streets. There was a time when one could avoid getting mugged simply by not wearing Italian shoes, a Burberry coat or a Rolex watch in certain neighborhoods. Nowadays, though, any schlepper in a hoodie could be carrying a password in his head with access to Bitcoin enough to buy two-dozen solid-gold Rolexes. The assailant wouldn't even have to risk carrying a gun, since a small pair of pliers to yank out the schlepper's fingernails would be the only tool a thief who uses unfriendly persuasion in its most recently popularized way would need. Don't laugh, because you damned well know this is going to happen in some alley somewhere: a schmuck who wouldn't give up an alphanumeric key stored in his head will lie disfigured in a pool of blood, and the story will instantly be at the top of the news across America. It's impossible to know whether Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, is feeling remorseful over the current blizzard of headlines concerning the New York crypto investor held captive, tortured, peed on, beaten and threatened with death by two or more young men sadistically determined to pry a bitcoin account password out of him. If Satoshi has any humanity, he is asking himself 'What have I wrought?' Hadn't he simply wanted to invent a mathematically perfect money that would allow people to spend without being watched by the banks and the shadowy regulators who watch them? How ironic, then, that bitcoin has instead turned out to be an all but unusable medium for ordinary transactions while filling the heads of
Rates on the 10-Year Note gave up little ground last week, suggesting they want to move higher. If so, they'll have a chance to make an important top at 4.92%, the Hidden Pivot 'd' target of the reverse pattern shown. A precise reversal is likely there, given the obscurity of the pattern that produced resistance. We can use it as a minimum upside objective as well. That's bad news, considering the amount of refinancing ($9Tr.) the U.S. Treasury must do this year. There are no guarantees that the 4.92% target will cap the uptrend, but if it gives way, it will put a lot of weight on stocks.
