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GDXJ is probably within no more than five points of groping its way to the bottom of the textbook head-and-shoulders pattern shown in the hourly chart (see inset). If it's going to revive sooner rather than later, though, the secondary pivot at 43.44 would be a logical place for this to occur. You can bottom-fish there with a tight stop-loss, using expiring call options if you've got the chops. I've used a dubious one-off 'A' high here, and the pattern could turn out to be governed by the marquee high at 55.58, so plan accordingly.

The Dollar Index pulled back hard on Friday, half-correcting the steep upthrust from two days earlier. Given how the uptrend impaled the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=107.36), there is little room for doubt about whether D=109.30 will be reached. As noted earlier, that would keep weight on gold. It would also set up a potential 'mechanical' buying opportunity at p=107.36.  We don't often do this trade at p, but the trend is so strong that waiting for a relapse to the green line (x=106.39) might leave us empty-handed when the turn comes. _______ UPDATE (Dec 28): The dollar has hovered stubbornly aloft, denying us an opportunity to bottom-fish at the red line (p=107.36). The trade recommendation remains viable nonetheless. 

I am playing fast and loose with crude's 'technicals' this week, since chat-room interest in this symbol appears to be dead. As such, I have little reason to provide potentially tradable ABCD coordinates. Instead, here's a perfectly serviceable pennant formation with the January contract falling to around 67.50 before it gratuitously reverses direction.  Nudge me in the chat room if you actively trade this symbol and require more-detailed guidance. A bearish bias is warranted, albeit with close attention to the vicious feints and head- and foot-fakes that have always characterized this vehicle's movement.

[The following analysis was contributed by my friend  Larry Amernick. His work has appeared here in the past, including excerpts from The Amernick Letter, which is no longer published. He is a former president of the Technical Securities Analysts Association of San Francisco.] Last Wednesday’s brutal response to a mildly hawkish Federal Reserve announcement triggered two opposite market signals. First, the unusual nature of the sell-off in technical terms told us that the great secular bull market that began in 2009 is probably over. Second, the intense selling generated oversold readings that were bound to produce a short-covering rally, as they indeed have. The stock market is always coming and going at the same time, depending on which time frame one is using to measure the trend. It is an irrational and sometimes fragile creature of human emotions, and that's why it can be so difficult to predict. Nevertheless, let’s take a closer look, using the October 1987 Crash for comparison. It turns out the tape was actually more bearish this time, even though losses in percentage terms were nowhere near those of the earlier crash. In 1987, the McLellan Oscillator, which measures breadth, was a scary -110.14; on Wednesday, however, it registered an astounding -203.34. The advance/decline line differential was just as scary: -1921 in 1929 versus -3468 this time. The three-day exponential moving average was -1594.85 versus--2444.89. 3% Versus 22% Why did the market drop a mere 3% on Wednesday, compared to 22% in 1987, even though tape action was arguably worse this time? Although many stocks fell, they did not collapse; they moved only a few percentage points lower. It was the astounding breadth readings that made the difference.  Call it a foretaste of what could come in January. For good measure, I have applied a volume

T-Bonds got crushed last week, reversing precipitously from within an inch of what would have been a bullish breakout. The gap down through p=91.82 all but guarantees the downtrend will continue to a minimum D=88.78, a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished by interpolating the target for March T-Bond futures. The reversal is likely to work precisely if at all, so you can use a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks (or a 'camo' trigger) to get long. If the target is easily penetrated, that would be bad news for bonds and correspondingly bullish for interest rates. Higher rates would of course keep pressure on gold.

Last week's rally ended with 10-Year rates sitting just above a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 4.38%. If Monday's close is above this number as well, that would portend more upside to D=4.63%. This would be bad news for all who owe dollars, a class of businesses and individuals whose size is almost beyond imagining and which includes commercial real estate developers who have been hanging on for dear life. It will also put further pressure on bullion, which has faltered in recent weeks. If there's a silver lining, higher rates will also constrain our elected representatives in Washington from spending like drunken sailors.

The futures bottomed Friday at a key support, the 30.728 midpoint Hidden Pivot of a pattern that projects to as low as D=28.18. The pattern is gnarly enough to offer some potential trading opportunities, including bottom-fishing at p,  p= p2=29.456 or even D. Also, a rally from the sweet spot between p and p2 would set up an enticing 'mechanical' short from x=31.999, stop 33.275.  As always, a decisive penetration of the midpoint support (p=30.728) would portend more slippage to at least p2, or possibly D.

The Dollar Index is stealing up on a key Hidden Pivot resistance at 107.36 that is associated with a D target at 109.30. The pattern is clear and compelling, so we could be confident its target will be reached if buyers push past p with ease. That is what I expect, and it would have negative implications for gold, as mentioned in my update for the February Comex contract.  Shorts at p and D can be attempted nonetheless, using any vehicle of your choosing that corresponds directly or inversely with the dollar.

I'll trash bitcoin in a moment -- my new hobby -- but first a yellow alert for everyone who thinks the stock market's inevitable collapse is most likely to happen shortly after the first of the year. Although that seems quite plausible, fulfilling popular expectations is not how Mr Market usually works. Think how many lives he could wreck if the collapse were to begin any day now, at the height of Santa season. We should be especially cautious because premium levels for put options on the S&Ps have fallen to near-record lows. Although that does not tell us exactly when the crash is likely to begin, it does make one thing all but certain: The stock market's initial plunge will be so breathtakingly swift and steep that put prices will soar in mere hours to stratospheric levels where no one will want to buy them. Count on it. Concerning Bitcoin, I couldn't resist the temptation to weigh in at WSJ.com after they ran an article last week that attributed Bitcoin's extremely high price to 'scarcity'. The headline drew the usual crowd of youths who seemed to agree. Reaching deep into market history, one of them helpfully pointed out that Bitcoin has outperformed all other investible assets over the last decade. Who knew? Whatever he believes, it is indisputable that Bitcoin  -- unlike tulip bulbs, which can produce beautiful flowers -- has an intrinsic value of zero.  Granted, there's nominal value of perhaps $2-$3 per token because the blockchain within which cryptos are created can be used to effect and record financial transactions securely. But $100,000? That's absurd, considering Bitcoin cannot accomplish those tasks nearly as efficiently as credit cards or cash. Violent Money? And what kind of crazy 'money' explodes in value from five cents to a hundred thousand