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AAPL went all spastic on Wednesday, apparently because the quasi-criminal monopoly of its app store is drawing intense scrutiny from eurolands's notoriously zealous regulators. They've proven time and again that they can be bought off, but there is understandable concern that any bribe paid these extortionists will be in painful proportion to AAPL's $2 trillion-plus valuation. The wack-jobs powering Apple shares higher, famously including the central bank of Switzerland, will shrug it off in a day or two if not sooner so that AAPL can return in earnest to the urgent mission chosen for it by the U.S. Government: making all the pension funds that hold the stock appear solvent for as long as possible. From a technical standpoint, it is mildly bullish that the top of Wednesday's schizoid spike slightly exceeded a very clear Hidden Pivot target at 135.96. Let's see how long the correction lasts before we bull up with gusto for the next stab higher.

An interesting day, Hidden Pivot-wise. AAPL topped 0.03% from a rally target I'd drum-rolled before the split, and the Dollar Index bounced sharply from within six cents of Hidden Pivot target that's backstopped by a major trendline. Odds are against nailing the exact high in AAPL, which in dollar terms  is being driven by the most powerful and consequential buying mania in history, but we'll have to see what the new day brings before we write off the target as just another flash-in-the-pan. The important thing is that many subscribers evidently made hay as AAPL rampaged toward the rally target. If the stock and the dollar have in fact begun major reversals, that would be a very big deal, since every other lunatic trend in motion since March is about to reverse as well.  The Nasdaq 100 did not look toppy at all, but that hardly negates the possibility that it is about to plunge into the molten pit of hell. Regardless of which side of the craziness you're on, you can cross your fingers and root for a satisfying outcome.

AAPL didn't waste any time demonstrating why DaBoyz split it four-for-one, effective Monday morning. The stock was up a scandalously undeserved $6.18 at one point, or more than 5%, although the gain was not nearly as noticeable as it would have been prior to the split. The pre-split rise would have been $24.72, making it one of the most powerful rallies in recent memory. It won't be remembered that way, however, since the $4.16 closing gain is just not a very impressive number.  What is impressive is that it put about $70 billion more dollars into the financial ether, inflating pension and sovereign funds sufficiently to feed, house and clothe California's six million retirees from now until Christmas. The stock still has a little ways to go before it reaches the 134.37 target we've been using as an upside objective. At the rate it's going, AAPL could be there by Wednesday. Better watch this one closely, because if the shares are topping, so is the stock market. The big question is whether the bull market can be stretched out for long enough to allow DaBoyz to cash out of other megacap stocks that they are immersed in up to their eyeballs: TSLA, AMZN, GOOG, CMG, NFLX.  Hedge funds and pension funds have trillions of dollars locked up in these stocks, and they desperately need to unload them on the rubes, since they offer horrible value at these levels. Keeping the market levitated for the year or two it could take to split and reprice them for the hoi-polloi will be be quite a trick, even for the Masters of the Universe.

Index futures and bullion have opened moderately higher Sunday evening, suggesting DaBoyz are in no hurry to lighten up on inventory.  I'll weigh in later this evening when there is more evidence to judge the mood of investors, but at the moment, they seem quietly confident. I have provided some ambitious rally targets in my latest tout updates below, and there should be little doubt they will be achieved. ______ UPDATE (Aug 31, 12:22 a.m.): What began as a quiet rally has turned into yet another bear squeeze that could exhaust shorts by dawn. At that point the E-Mini S&Ps could be trading at the 3545.50 target sent out earlier, spent but incapable of pulling back to any significant degree. 

Buyers brushed aside a secondary pivot at 285.16, turning it into an apparent support by week's end. The clear implication is that DIA will achieve the 297.18 target, putting the cash Dow just below 30,000. I wouldn't count on round-number resistance to halt the stampede for long, especially since the bull market projection I've flagged for the E-Mini S&Ps elsewhere on this page would equate to around Dow 31,000. DIA's ascent, although not quite as steep as the Nasdaq 100's, has provided no opportunities to get long 'mechanically' on the daily chart, although there have been several set-ups on the lesser charts. They cannot usually be foreseen a day in advance, however, so we'll have to continue looking for them intraday. Meanwhile, I would not suggest buying naked call options merely because this vehicle is a lead-pipe cinch to reach the rally target. Instead, focus on butterfly spreads centered on or very near the target. The Sep 18 296/298/300 'fly would be a great buy for 0.10-0.15, since it has the potential to return perhaps 1.50-1.80 with DIA trading near the target between Sep 16-18.  You might also consider calendar spreading the 300 strike.  The Sep 25/Sep 11 for 0.60 would yield excellent odds, since it could widen to as much as 3.00. _______ UPDATE (Sep 2, 9:29 p.m.): The trade ideas suggested above have already produced significant gains, but because they attracted no discussion whatsoever, I have no way of knowing whether dozens of subscribers are keen to jump on put options when DIA hits 297.18, which it will. _______ UPDATE (Sep 3, 10:06 p.m.): Today's big selloff did not significantly alter the odds of DIA achieving the 297.18 target, although a further drop exceeding 275.87 would.

The burden of proof rests with bulls for the time being, since the rally from Aug 11-18 failed to surpass a distinctive 'external' peak at 44.18 (see inset). If the corresponding ABC downtrend were to play out, a touch at 42.48 would trigger a 'mechanical' short with a 37.64 price objective.  This is blandly objective analysis, but I must tell you that I'm not thrilled with the prospect of shorting GDX, given the difficulties sellers have had pushing gold lower over the last two weeks. I'll recommend watching from the sidelines for a couple of days, although there are always ways to trade the lesser charts with risk well controlled. I have crowdsourced this task but will join in the discussion if the interest is there. ______ UPDATE (Sep 3, 10:27 p.m.) The paper-trade short has gone as much as $205 in-the-black and is still profitable, predicated on a 37.64 target. Two successively higher Friday closes would turn stochastic indicators on the weekly chart bullish. ______ UPDATE (Sep 5): The short position is showing a theoretical gain of around $650 on four round lots. I'll suggest a 41.81 stop-loss for now, o-c-o with an order to cover the position four cents above the 37.64 target. ______ UPDATE (Sep 9, 11:48 p.m.): My bad, since half of the short position should have been covered last week at p=40.87. The trade produced  a $244 theoretical profit nonetheless. I am taking a vacation from GDX for a while, since it is too much trouble to track -- the most annoying vehicle on the list. I will wade into the discussion nonetheless if subscribers show active interest in  this vehicle in the Trading Room.

Thursday's psychotic price action showed what's on the tiny, fevered brains of traders as they continue to drive the broad averages to ridiculous heights. Supposedly, the wack-jobs wanted Powell to say more than he did in his keynote address Thursday morning at the Jackson Hole conference.  Here's the Fed chairman in his own words. Judge for yourself whether a more measured response on Wall Street might have been appropriate: “Our longer-run goal continues to be an inflation rate of 2 percent … Our new statement indicates that we will seek to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time. Therefore, following periods when inflation has been running below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.”  This is about as dog-bites-man as Fed announcements get, and so we should probably factor out the highs and lows Powell's words produced on the intraday charts when we calculate targets for the near-to-intermediate-term. They will be rally targets, to  be sure, since there is no evidence that Fed policy, such as it is, has caused investors more than a few nanosecconds of concern.

Bullion bulls should be enjoying the show even though silver and gold futures have gone nowhere for the last couple of weeks. Comex Gold has been pounding on a midpoint Hidden Pivot support of intermediate degree almost daily, and although the futures have traded slightly beneath the support a couple of times, most of the action has been above it. Silver has been even more recalcitrant, defying bears to push it down to a midpoint pivot at 25.66 (shown in chart above). So far this week, the September Comex contract has traded no lower than 26.09. Although both silver and gold could breach their respective midpoint supports and fall, respectively, to as low as 1837 and 22.75, this appears unlikely at the moment. In fact, bears could keel over from exhaustion if they are not able to breach the midpoint pivots by Friday. If that happens, it would clear the way for a strong rally Sunday night.  Although there is always the chance of a rout such as occurred for a single, ugly day two weeks ago, these episodes are becoming increasingly rare and fleeting. There are obviously enough buyers around to push back hard on days when bears don't have help from some source, or combination of sources, that ignorantly treats bullion like brick dust. _______ UPDATE (Aug 26, 10:29 p.m.): A 1907.50 correction target sent out to subscribers Tuesday night came within 90 cents of nailing the low of Wednesday's $55 moonshot.  Many subscribers reported getting in near the bottom, so I've updated with fresh guidance and targets. The Silver tout has been updated as well, so check it out!

An obsessive focus on AAPL has paid off for us by taking the guesswork out of the stock market's rally. As long as Apple shares are moving higher, so will the broad averages. And as long as we have price targets we are confident in, we can trade with an aggressively bullish bias no matter how strong our skepticism. There are good reasons to be skeptical, too, not least of which is that AAPL's price has doubled since March with no corresponding expectation of an increase in earnings. The shares have benefited in particular from the fact that every fund manager who wants to keep his job is heavily weighted in the Cupertino firm because the stock has never let them down. It is the biggest crowd-pleaser of them all, adding $40 billion in 'wealth' to the financial system with each $1 gain. More than any other stock, it allows city, state and county pension funds to pretend they are healthy.  And so it keeps going up because, well, because it has to. How long can bulls keep it up?  Until it hits 537.23, at least, according to our technical runes. That's exactly $33.44 above Monday's closing price, and we'll be bullish as all get-out until it gets there. After that?  We'll let the charts speak for themselves.