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The 283.76 rally target shown in the chart has gotten billboard exposure on the home page for so long that it can hardly be expected to work. Even so, I'll recommend taking a small short position when QQQ gets there, buying the first close-to-expiring puts you can find trading for under $1.00. Do NOT go out farther in time so that the trade has more time to work; this is a losing strategy. If the trade works the way it's supposed to, you should see a nominal profit within 30-60 minutes of your entry. Since we are going against the most powerful rally in history and odds will therefore be against us, you should risk no more on this speculation than you can lose painlessly. The trade should be executed with QQQ no farther from the target than 0.03-0.06 points.  Stop yourself out if QQQ trades above 285.00 intraday. _______ UPDATE (Aug 24, 9:22 a.m. ET): Cancel the trade, since QQQ has gapped through the target ahead of this morning's opening. This is remarkable, considering how clear and compelling the resistance was. It attests to the demented strength of the rally. _______ UPDATE (Aug 25, 7:55 pm.): There is little point in proferring rally targets as potential tops, since even the most obstinate of them withstands the onslaught for no more than a day or two. QQQ has spent the last two days developing thrust for a push above a 286.28 target that came into play when 283.76 gave way. Now, assuming it falls as well, we'll be looking at a run-up to 292.41. It will become an odds-on bet if and when buyers push the Cubes above p=286.84.  Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Aug 26, 10:03 p.m.):  The 292.41 target flagged above caught the top of today's rampage within a

My skepticism toward last Monday's spiky run-up was vindicated when GDX sold off for the remainder of the week. Although punitive, the reversal did no serious technical damage to the intraday charts. However, the failure of buyers to push above a 44.18 'external' peak recorded on August 10 has shifted the burden of proof to bulls. If they cannot mobilize early in the week, look for GDX to continue falling to 39.30, or possibly 37.69 if any lower. Alternatively, the chart pattern could be resolved in bulls' favor with a two-day close above 43.35. That is a midpoint resistance and it is shown in this chart. It's tied to a 47.80 target. _______ UPDATE (Aug 25, 8:07 p.m. ET): A three-day, $2.47 plunge looks to have reversed today from a low 29 cents above the 39.30 target above.  You'll be on your own managing the risk if you bought near the bottom, but it will likely be with the wind at your back because of the well-time entry. _______ UPDATE (Aug 26, 10:14 p.m.): Several traders reported getting in near the low, so I am establishing a tracking position of 400 shares @ 39.70. Use a 40.76 stop-loss today, o-c-o with a closing offer on 200 shares at 42.03. ______ UPDATE (Aug 27, 10:33 p.m.): The tracking position produced a $678 gain on an extremely wild day.  Half was exited in the opening minutes at 42.34, where  GDX opened, and the rest was stopped out for an additional gain of $212.  We held no position at the close, nor do I suggest jumping in again at this time.

We've been using a 285.16 price objective for months, but it is not even a 'D' target, just the secondary pivot of an unambitious pattern that projects to 297.18. It has been a long slog -- one not particularly well suited to naked-call strategies. A perfectly timed bet on Aug 28 280 calls would have made you a few bucks, but not much more. As always, the key was to have taken off half of the position after the options doubled in price early on.  The ride to 285.16 from here is a no-brainer, and DIA could eventually make it to 297.18, but I have no simple option strategies to recommend. Here's one that sounds harder to do than it is -- a call butterfly centered on the 295 strike:  Buy the Oct 2 295/300/305 'fly for around 0.20. This implies shorting two 300 calls and buying a 295 call and a 305 call for a net debit of 20 cents ($20). The most you can lose is $20 per spread, but if the stock is trading near 300 at expiration, you could make as much as $500 per spread (although $260-$320 would be more realistic).  Work out the value of the options in this position with DIA trading at various prices between 250 and 350 if you want to understand exactly how butterfly spreads work. You could also do a 'rolling'  calendar spread, buying Oct 16 300 calls for 1.25 while shorting Sep 4 300 calls against them for 0.10. When the latter expire, you would short Sep 11 calls; then, the next Friday, Sep 18 calls. If DIA continues to move higher, the premium you would take in for each successive short sale would continue to increase. Ideally, DIA would be trading for around 300 on Oct 16,

The E-Mini S&Ps ended the week a millimeter shy of a well-advertised rally target at 3402.75, poised to achieve it when index futures start trading again Sunday evening. If we were so confident the target would be reached, why, you might ask, didn't we simply buy a dozen contracts weeks ago and avert our eyes as the futures made their way toward an all-but-inevitable rendezvous with 3402.75? The chart shows why such a strategy -- why nearly ALL buy-and-hold strategies -- are so diabolically difficult to employ. For although there may have been little doubt about whether 3402.75 would be reached, simply holding a few contracts for an "easy" ride would have subjected a trader to enormous strain, waves of excruciating doubt and many sleepless nights. Notice how the E-Minis' incremental gains from one green peak to the next were punctuated by losses several times as large with each downdraft to a red-numbered low. That is Mr Market's way of denying easy money to traders and investors who see "obvious" trends, and who think the path to riches entails simply sticking with those trends no matter what. It turns out that the 'no matter what' aspect of trading the big swings can be so harrowing that few of us have the balls or the discipline to ride out the inevitable wailing. shrieking days and nights. How to Die Rich We've all heard stories about some commodity trader who made a killing riding a monster move all the way to the top. A cursory look at the chart would seem to suggest this was easy -- just up, up, up and aw-a-a-y, like AAPL and TSLA have been doing lately. On closer inspection, however, the steep uptrend is revealed to be a deception: the magnifying lens reveals how even parabolic rallies

I've been a hard-core deflationist and dollar bull for decades, and so I've been eager to see technical evidence that the dollar's wrenching correction since March is at an end.  Alas, although there are faint stirrings in the greenback that hint of a short-to-intermediate-term rally, I doubt that it heralds the resumption of the dollar's long-term bull market. My expectation is that this will occur in conjunction with a deflationary implosion that will usher in a global economic depression. For the time being, though, the money spigot is wide open, fiscal stimulus is at unprecedented levels and few are worried about a ruinous debt deflation.  It is inevitable nonetheless because too many dollars are owed -- including more than a quadrillion of them tied to financial derivatives -- for debtors to slip the noose. The sum is vastly more than the piddling trillions being loaned or gifted to the financially strapped. And although no one thinks they or even the taxpayers will have to repay this money -- meaning it is ultimately inflationary, at least in theory -- the deflationary black hole created by a collapsing derivatives market and falling prices for energy and real estate will suck all debt into the void of singularity. Stochastic Blahhhs Concerning the Dollar Index, its last few, minor rallies have exceeded prior peaks on the intraday charts, and this is bullish. However, stochastic indicators do not suggest that a major reversal is at hand. Notice in the chart (inset) that DXY's descending lows since March have generated correspondingly descending lows in the weekly stochastic. Although this 'non-divergence' is not bearish per se, it is not the kind of chart action we should expect at a major low.  In contrast, notice how just before the dollar took off at the beginning of 2018, we

AAPL remains in thrall to madmen, mountebanks and child molesters, although this determined crew could run out of room to manipulate the stock moonward very shortly. The Cupertino firm's shares rose $10 on Thursday, settling at 472.83 and adding a total of $40 billion of 'wealth' to the net worth of Switzerland and, probably, every homeowner within three blocks of Malibu beach. From here it's no more than a three-day climb to 490.97, a potentially important rally target that Rick's Picks subscribers have been using to suspend disbelief as Apple's valuation climbed toward, and now above, the $2 trillion mark. Analysts say the manufacturer's smartphones and computers are selling well, but of course they'd have to be selling very well indeed for the firm to rack up the highest valuation of any company in the history of the world. Looking ahead to the inevitable, there's a limit to how high AAPL can go, and this will necessarily place a limit on how high the stock market itself can go. The Dow Industrials gained a paltry 47 points on Thursday, a divergence in relation to the lunatic stocks -- AMZN, CMG, FB, GOOG, MSFT and NFLX -- that will grow increasingly worrisome if it persists.  No one seems to have noticed it yet, but if and when they do, investors' damn-the-torpedoes attitude is certain to prove far more fragile than it now appears.

An interesting day, since nearly everything went the 'wrong' way: stocks, the Nasdaq 100 and even the lunatic sector were down while the dollar actually rose. Bullion got hit pretty hard, crude fell, and AAPL's solid gains from earlier in the day were reversed. Could the foregoing herald a major tone change? It's possible, although I have my doubts. In any event, I will stay closely focused on a $490 rally target in AAPL, since there is strong technical evidence to suggest it will be achieved. If so, look for Wednesday's selloff to reverse and for recent trends, including the bullish one in bullion, to resume.

The S&Ps flirted with new record highs for the sixth straight day, waiting for news that could conceivably be used to squeeze shorts for a few headline inches. Besides the presumptive structural resistance at the old highs, there's an important Hidden Pivot obstacle that was first mentioned here in early June.  Together they represent layers of supply capable of keeping stocks from soaring into the wild blue yonder.  For now, I'm looking for a marginal new high that could provide an excellent opportunity to get short. AAPL, however, is a wild card. Currently trading for around 463, it looks primed for a thrust to 490. The stock would make an enticing short at that price, but it remains to be seen whether the broad averages will be at or near highs that would offer an equivalent opportunity.

I'll be tracking AAPL more closely than ever in the days ahead, since it is closing on a Hidden Pivot rally target with the potential to create a major top. If one occurs, the stock market will be topping as well, since Apple shares, valued at nearly $2 trillion, are the most important market bellwether of them all globally. The target lies at 490.97, and it is all but certain to be achieved, given the gap-up moves through x and p (see inset). I cannot guarantee that this will be THE top, since the pattern's point 'A' low is not very compelling. But there is just one logical alternative at 519.50 that would remain if 490.97 is easily exceeded. It comes from sliding 'A' down to the 236.90 low recorded on April 2. However, the pattern shown is sufficiently clear that a tradeable pullback from 490.97 is extremely likely. This scenario will make an excellent bet, presumably using put options priced below $1 that expire in about 8-12 days. _______ UPDATE (Aug 17, 7:15 p.m. ET) Buyers have turned uncharacteristically lugubrious, doing a Parkinson's shuffle atop the 457.37 'secondary' pivot rather than a sprightly jig. This implies AAPL may need to swoon in order to get a running start on 490.97.  Traders please note:  If the stock were to fall to p=423.78, that would trigger a mildly enticing 'mechanical' buy, stop 401.38. _______ UPDATE (Aug 18, 5:48 p.m.): AAPL needs to close above the 464.36 top of the pooch-screwing range of the last three days to get back in gear.