Free

I rarely update my dollar forecast because 1) my very-long-term outlook is unshakably bullish, and 2) subscribers do not trade it. Nevertheless, the dollar sold off hard last month, raising mild concerns about whether the long-tern trend has changed. A glance at the weekly chart, however, reveals little technical damage. Regardless, I'll need to start treating the chart as I would some trading vehicle I don't care about. Strictly speaking, a further decline touching the green line would put p=92.67 in play as a downside target. I refer to it as my worst-case scenario in the chart, but in fact 85.67, the pattern's 'D' target, would be the actual worst-case possibility. That is unimaginable to me, and so I've put it out of mind.  'Impossibilities' aside, I'll be watching for 'counterintuitive' buying signals each time DXY takes out a new low on the weekly chart. The nearest of them lies at 97.03, and thence at 95.84. _______ UPDATE (Nov 8): Interesting that a market as vast as the dollar should rally following a cheesy fake-out low that exceeded a previous one by a few cents.  That is what has happened, however, as this chart makes clear.  The rally would look more sincere if and when it exceeds the external peak at 98.65. _______ UPDATE (Dec 4, 6:44 p.m.): The greenback has taken a moderate fall after going no higher than 98.54, just 12 cents shy of our bullish trigger price. The weakness would become significant if it exceeds the 97.03 low recorded on August 9.

To repeat: AAPL is the only stock we need follow closely to know whether a major top looms for the bull market. The logic is simple: Because Apple is the most valuable company in the world, its shares top institutional investors' must-own list. Furthermore, as long as those who make their living throwing Other People's Money at a dozen or so stocks continue to throw the lion's share of it at AAPL, the bull market is all but certain to continue.  It is not so much a case of AAPL dragging the broad averages higher as dragging the institutional sheeples' brains into thin air. So what are we to infer from the chart show in the inset?  Very simply this: If the stock were to blow past the pink line, a secondary Hidden Pivot' at 248.48, it would strongly imply more upside to at least 283.97, the pattern's 'D' target. That's 14% above these levels, which would mean 30,951 (or so) for the Dow Industrials.  If this were to occur between now and early next year, it would be a fitting blowoff for the biggest U.S. bull market of them all. Keep in mind that your editor can think of a dozen good reasons why the Dow should be selling for half its current price. Better that you should get bullish advice from a permabear who can read charts than from some buy-side fanatic who believes current price earnings multiples alone justify significantly higher prices. ______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 12:02): The stock is getting drubbed after poking its snout slightly above the 248.48 'hidden' resistance on a bull-trap opening. For all we know, the high could endure for the next ten years. Although I doubt it, we needn't concern ourselves with AAPL until such time as it does what we

Careful! I'd practically guaranteed a run-up to at least 1535.90 over the near term, but it was not to be. Bulls who were counting on it got sandbagged on Friday -- or perhaps worse, since the high occurred just inches from the secondary pivot, 1521.40.  Hidden Pivot geezers will recall that when a rally reverses from very close to p2, the retracement often goes on to stop out the point 'C' low of the pattern. This is known as 'Matt's Curse', named after the 15th Century explorer who set sail for the southern tip of Florida but got no further than the Bermuda Triangle  Matt's Curse has yet to be statistically validated, but even so, the gratuitous nastiness of Friday's reversal warrants caution, since it suggests that we, meaning everyone who trades this vehicle, had grown just a tad too bullish. If the retracement comes down to the green line (x=1492.50), I'd be tempted to execute a 'mechanical' buy there, stop 1478.00, but let's play it by ear for now. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 8:05 p.m. ET): The trade triggered, but you should check the Trading Room for alternative entry strategies (and my rating, a 6.9), since the 'mechanical' one has initial risk of nearly $1,500 per contract. Just one subscriber, using mini-contracts, reported getting aboard. I'd suggest taking off at least half if the futures make it to p=1507.00. _______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 8:57 a.m.):  A nearly $30 rally from yesterday's  headless-chicken low has hit 1512.20 so far, allowing exit from half of a four-contract position at $1507.  The gain on two contracts would have been $1900 for anyone who did the trade. Offer another contract to close at 1535.40, half a point below the original target. _______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 5:49 p.m.): Bring the offer to sell one

The failure of Friday's short-squeeze to achieve the 3029.25 target we'd set for it is puzzling, especially considering how easily buyers shredded the p2 'secondary' resistance at 3015.69. It still looks like an enticing spot to try shorting, especially if you've made money on the way up. Check the trading room for rABC coordinates, since this vehicle has attracted an active following lately. If the target gets shoved aside, look for more upside to  3056.75, a Hidden Pivot resistance calculated by sliding the point 'A' low down to 2926.25.  The resulting pattern racked up enough precise hits last week to suggest it and its D target will not only work, but work precisely. _______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 8:21 p.m.): Buyers easily exceeded 3029.25, putting the 3056.75 target in play. _______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 4:59 p.m.): The 3056.75 target can be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as 3058.25. If it's hit, however, you should shift your sights upward to the 3069.75 target shown here. The sharp pullback from within a millimeter of p=2962.38 lends authority to the pattern and the target. _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 8:54 p.m.):  The little wind-bag has  wafted as high as 3055.00 in after-hours trading. Let's see how long it takes for buyers to chew through the 3056.75 target, since that will determine the odds for further upside to 3069.75. Note: If 3056.75 gives way easily, that does not necessarily mean that 3069.75 will be a pushover. _______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 6:06 p.m.): Sellers swarmed the opening, carving out a low at 3020 an hour later that may or may not survive Friday nuttiness. In retrospect, a short from the 3055.00 high that would have been worth as much as $1700 per contract was possible, but only if you were glued to your trading screen an

One could not ask for a more vivid picture of sleazeballs at work than the AMZN chart accompanying this tout. Thursday's melodramatic swoon recalled Oscar Wilde's quip, “One must have a heart of stone to read the death of little Nell without laughing.” And so it was with Amazon; for only an imbecile could have regarded the stock's swift, 165-point dive as bearish.  News out after the close fretted about the impact on Q3 earnings of Amazon's aggressive efforts to ramp up one-day deliveries.  Cutthroat play is exactly how the accompany has come to dominate the retail landscape, and plowing revenues back into operations rather than bringing them down to the bottom line is how Jeff Bezos rolls -- how he got to be the richest man in the world. This method of growing a business was a supposed sore spot for years with institutional investors, who never stopped whining about the huge sums of erstwhile profits Amazon was re-investing in itself from one quarter to the next.  The results speak for themselves. And yet, are investors' memories so short that they can't recall how DaBoyz used the phony 'over-investing' story to shake down the stock so that they could buy it at fire-sale prices from widows and pensioners they'd scared half to death? Bears Will Think Twice When the dust settled on Friday, AMZN had recouped nearly all of its losses, as any sentient observer might have predicted. The short-squeeze bounce was so vicious that bears will think twice about piling onto the stock. This is bullish, and it will help keep AMZN buoyant for the foreseeable future no matter what the news.  The running start may even be sufficient to propel the stock to new record-highs above $2000. Some of those who got shaken out near Friday's panic-stricken

The relentless upward drift of shares has crushed S&P volatility, which has been hitting record lows almost daily.  There may be an opportunity here for us, as the chart makes clear. Specifically, the 19.15 target looks likely to produce a trend reversal sufficient to be tradeable. If VXX gets within 0.08 points of it on Monday, we'll try to buy eight November 8th 22 calls. A price of 0.20 would be about right, but check the Trading Room, since I may need to adjust the bid on-the-fly. You can improvise your own strategy, but don't bet more than you could afford to lose painlessly on a lotto ticket, since this bet is a longshot. I'll note as well that there is a 19.82 downside target on the monthly chart that could reverse the downtrend. VXX closed slightly beneath it on Friday, but I didn't notice the target until after the bell or I would have suggested buying a few call options to hold over the weekend. We might attempt this on Monday, but it will depend on how stocks open. ______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 5:06 p.m.): I still like 19.15 as a place to try bottom-fishing. We may have to improvise on-the-fly, however, so stay tuned to the chat room if VXX gets within 0.20 points or so of the target. _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 9:01 p.m.): Big surprise, VXX is about to hit the 19.15 target. I'll leave it to those of you who have seemed interested in VXX to improvise a bottom-fishing strategy, but don't bet the ranch. A tradeable bounce "soon" from very near the target looks like a good gamble to me, but don't take that as a guarantee. You should be feeling good already about having dodged the bullet by NOT getting long six points

A 'high-confidence' target at 243.68 has allowed us to go calmly and confidently with the trend, even when the stock was swooning $45 in June and $30 in August. The target, a Hidden Pivot resistance drawn from the daily chart, has been my minimum upside objective since around early April. This implies the stock could go significantly higher if it blows past 243.68. Specifically, and just in case, we should keep the 286.00 target shown (inset) in mind. It is important to be objective about this, since we are using AAPL as a bellwether to tell us when the bull market, which just entered its 92nd month, might be fixing to draw its last breath. Because AAPL is the most valuable company in the world (having recently surpassed MSFT) and a must-own stock for portfolio managers, it stands to reason that the broad averages won't top out until AAPL does. I'd be surprised if we do not see a tradeable pullback from 243.68, and I am therefore still recommending that you go short there using options purchased for $1.00 or less with perhaps two weeks left on them. You can buy a quantity of them provided you do so against a tight stop-loss. Specifically, if the stock were to trade $246 or higher, or close for two consecutive days above 243.68, we should infer it's on its way to at least p2=250.00 of the new pattern, but more likely to D=286.00. ______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 12:28 a.m.): A 238.15 target that caught this week's so-far high within two cents must be respected. It differs from the one at 243.68 given above in that it uses a point C low recorded overnight that lies $5 below the regular session low I used.  My thanks to 'Ovcactus,' a relatively new Pivoteer, for

We'll keep this chart in mind to avoid getting spooked whenever the usual, benighted yeasayers gang up on Treasurys. I am not wavering on my still-bullish outlook for T-bonds and -notes, notwithstanding the fact that some notable bond bulls, including Gary Shilling, have publicly glimpsed the end of T-Bonds' three-decade winning streak. A generational reversal is coming, for sure, but let's not look the gift horse in the mouth while yields are continuing to fall. A rally to the 154.93 target shown in the chart would equate to a rate of about 1.65% on the long bond. _______ UPDATE (Oct 12): We've waited for a chance to get long, and this is the best opportunity that has surfaced in a while -- at the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a substantial corrective pattern. Tradestation is kaput at the moment, but I'll update with a trade suggestion on Monday if the option screen revives. My plan is to calendar-spread a well-out-of-the-money strike. _______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 5:21 p.m.): TLT looks fatigued, so let's allow it to fall before we attempt to get aboard. _______ UPDATE (Oct 21, 7:49 p.m.): We side-stepped TLT's nasty sell-off by remaining on the sidelines, but the secondary support at 136.93 will be a good place to attempt bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss. A 136.96 bid can be used, stop 136.79, on 400 shares. _______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 10:38 p.m.): A pop above 140.38 would generate an impulse leg on the hourly chart. We'll consider buying on strength -- something we rarely do -- if and when the time comes. _______ UPDATE (Oct 23, 10:54 p.m.): The stock popped to 140.31 -- close but no cigar! -- before receding sharply.  Even so, the head-fake generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Let's see if buyers

I've been trying to avoid this vehicle, since it stirs up craziness in the trading room. That said, a pullback to x=7609 would trigger a textbook 'mechanical ' buy.  Hard to ignore? Not for me, since the nearly $4500 initial risk is scary no matter how you slice it.  I'm putting out this advisory for informational purposes anyway, but if I hear from at least two subscribers who do the trade (this will be on the honor system), I'll make it official by establishing a tracking position. Little further guidance would be needed, since winning would be a simple matter of gutting it out. Your stop-loss would be just beneath C=3134, with p=12,083 as a minimum objective.  Please let me know in the trading room if you're a player. Good luck! ______ UPDATE (Oct 5): Paypal has dropped out of Facebook's Libra cryptocurrency experiment, so don't be surprised if the 'mechanical' buy at 7609 triggers soon. It missed by an inch on the last selloff. ______ UPDATE (Oct 10, 10:50 p.m.): Bitcoin has turned pathetic again. I'll leave the tout up for a while anyway because the dip to 7719 came so close to signaling the 'mechanical' buy noted above that we could consider the trade as having triggered. _______ UPDATE (Oct 24, 6:50 p.m.): The nasty selloff from late June's 13855 high has finally triggered the 'mechanical' buy signal noted above.  This type of trade works best in vehicles that move violently, but I'd suggest watching from the sidelines, since, with a stop-loss at 3133,  the initial theoretical risk would be $4475. A less risky place to attempt entry would be at the 6166target of the smaller ABC pattern shown here. The long-term rally target associated with the 7609 buy signal is 21,032. _______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 8:30 a.m.):