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Uh-oh. A couple of FAANG heavyweights rolled down hard Tuesday after failing to reach their respective Hidden Pivot targets. Apple shares had appeared bound for at least 190.33 when they reversed from 188.99 mid-day along with the broad averages. AMZN was well into a weeks-long, 220-point climb to a 1842 target when it turned tail and dove from 1784. Both stocks could find traction and resume their ascent before the week ends, and that is what I would ordinarily expect. However, because the E-Mini S&Ps reversed sharply precisely from a longstanding rally target at 2858.75, odds are higher that today's top could prove to be an important one. We should know soon -- probably by week's end -- but it is hardly encouraging that TSLA and FB were relapsing and seemingly primed to fall.

If you've been waiting for Mr. Market to spring the Mother of All Bull Traps, check out today's chart. What a beauty this picture would be if Tuesday's sharp reversal turns out to be the start of The Big One.  Granted, odds of getting the timing of so important a peak exactly right will always be against technical swamis. But the chart has enough going for it that permabears could be forgiven for thinking they might finally be right. For starters, notice how the C-D leg of the bull cycle begun in December topped today at exactly 2858.75, a target sent out to subscribers in early February. The ensuing, 30-point plunge tells us that for some reason, sellers were spooked. If the intraday high turns out to be the bull's last gasp, it picked an interesting place to occur -- i.e., just above three important peaks labeled Curly, Larry and Moe in the chart. They were recorded, respectively, in October, November and December, and any rally that surpassed them, especially without correcting, was bound to get the attention of bulls who have been sitting on the fence. The three-peak breakout also would have spooked more than a few bears into covering short positions. A 'Perfect Storm' of Deceptions Add in the fact that the Fed on Wednesday is expected to mumble something dovish, and you have a perfect storm of potential bullish deceptions. If you're a contrarian and a pessimist, the set-up looks irresistible. However, a very important caveat must be added: If the futures blow past the 2858.75 target in just a few days after having taken ten weeks to reach it, bears had better dive for cover, since that would be signaling more upside to at least 3,000 for the S&Ps and a further thousand-point rally in the

DaBoyz have been artfully rotating money between a handful of high-profile stocks in order to keep this distributive rally going for as long as possible. On Monday, although the broad averages seemed leaden all day, the Dow still eked out a 65-point gain while AMZN, AAPL and MSFT rose, respectively, 1.75%, 1.08% and 1.48%. This was despite the fact that shares of Boeing, the 800-pound gorilla of late (click on inset to see how Kong has been soothed), was off $7, or 1.65%, Tesla was getting sacked for 2.4%, and Facebook was down 2.24%. It feels as though for each marquee stock that is falling on a given day, there's a corresponding biggie that is rising. This suggests that the Masters of the Universe have been systematically going about their business -- i.e., unloading as much stock as they can on widows and pensioners while conditions are favorable  -- with relatively little firepower at their disposal. As we know, the only buyers voracious enough to generate headline rallies and push stocks above previous peaks are short-covering bears. Unfortunately for Wall Street, there has been insufficient "good" news to goad them into the kind of mini-buying-panics that worked so well in January/February. Very Stale News The smart money undoubtedly is waiting for "news" from this week's FOMC meeting to help trigger a short squeeze worthy of the name. However, the requisite but increasingly moronic-sounding story -- that the Fed sees "no strong reason" to tighten "right away" -- has been rehashed so many times over the last couple of months that it has become as stale as a sitcom laugh track. Each time this supposed news is rehashed, the wording is adjusted slightly so that it sounds as though the Fed has budged another millimeter or two in the direction of

The broad averages have rallied from their Christmas lows almost as steeply as they got there. The first 2,000 points of the Dow's trampoline bounce took just seven trading days. At the time, we wrote that the trend would continue until even hardcore skeptics were convinced that new all-time highs were likely. That is what bear rallies are supposed to do. Well, another 1100 points and we'll be at new highs, but that still wouldn't persuade us that this rally is the real deal and not just a bull trap. No one can predict such things with certitude, or course. But when we examine just two key stocks, Apple and Facebook, the smell of distribution is unmistakable. Both companies have serious problems, but lately their shares have been acting like everything is coming up roses. Facebook's core subscribers, the millennials, have been leaving in droves, in part because of the dishonest way the company has handled privacy issues, but also because Facebook conversations have turned increasingly political and rancid. (Click here for Tim Pool's report, Facebook Is Dying and Taking Buzzfeed With It.) Zuckerberg evidently sees the handwriting on the wall and recently announced a major shift from an advertising-based model to a service-based one that would facilitate small-group conversations. This is just a smokescreen, since Facebook's bottom line will continue to depend on how aggressively it sells out its users. Two key executives have left the company since the announcement, presumably because they do not see a brighter tomorrow. $100 Billion Buyback Apple long ago stopped innovating and is dependent mainly on iPhone sales at higher and higher prices to grow its bottom line. Trouble is, Huawei and other manufacturers are producing smartphones that can do everything iPhone can do for half the price. It's a little late in

The drumbeat is quickening ahead of TSLA's impending fall.  Bears who believe it will be easy to profit from this should think twice after Friday's experience. Although I'd recommended buying some out-of-the-money puts a day earlier, the company's shares were among the session's biggest gainers in the institutionally-worshiped-sector. The rally was pure short-squeeze, announcing very clearly that everyone is short the stock, or wants to be. Whenever that is the case, bears should fasten their seat belts and prepare for an extremely rocky ride. It is not unknown for shares of a company to rise even with news stories of criminality swirling around them. The Equity Funding scandal was a notorious example.  Although the stock fell steeply on most days, there were moments when it rallied ferociously on short-covering. Inevitably, these rallies were ascribed to the possibility that maybe, just maybe, the most salacious things being reported about Equity Funding were untrue. Unfortunately, this proved not to be the case. But that didn't stop some of the smartest investors on Wall Street from buying stock up until the moment the SEC halted trading for good. Shades of DeLorean I don't mean to suggest that Tesla CEO Elon Musk is a crook. In fact, he is one of my heroes. But it appears that in shifting money between various Musk enterprises, including SpaceX, and in booking car sales aggressively, he may have pushed the boundaries of accounting beyond their conventional limits.  Read the stories linked here, here and here and you will find it hard to disagree, even if you are as big a fan of Musk as I am. The chart (click on inset) shows what could happen to the stock when its institutional supporters begin to jump ship.  This grave turn of events will seem to happen overnight, sending the

Face it, this monster could veer wildly in either direction right now and even an Einstein could not confidently predict which. My heart's desire is to see the S&Ps plunge into the molten pit of hell by summer. The 2313.00 target shown suggests that, at least from a technical standpoint, this is possible. Presumably, the years-overdue collapse would drive out the crooks who have rigged shares while leaving the virtuous, widows and pensioners untouched. Thus cleansed in fire, Wall Street and the banking system would regenerate themselves and return to health; investors would enter a new era where accounting methods are honest, the behavior of stocks reasonably predictable, our economic and political lives guided by plain sense. In the meantime, a trader could get his ass kicked, as your editor did Thursday, betting that the scenario above will commence within the week. The E-Mini S&Ps are positioned precariously enough (click on chart inset) so that it's not such a bad gamble. The 'CI' stands for a 'counterintuitive' trade intended to flout the raucously bullish mood of the day. But the futures have been so squirrelly lately that one can only infer many traders have flocked to the 'Don't pass' line, eager for the broad averages to seven-out. Is there a less stressful way to do this? Check out my strategy in VXXB, which tracks short-term S&P 500 volatility. It is close to a possible turning point, and although call options are not cheap, owning a few of them beats getting flogged all day long by S&P futures in rabid-badger mode. If you don't subscribe, click here for a free two-week trial that will give you access to everything. And please do stop by the Trading Room to say hello. _______ UPDATE (Mar 17, 6:30 p.m. EDT): Each sharp upthrust has

Say this for DaBoyz, they've got rotation down. When Boeing and Facebook are getting socked the smart guys simply redirect the money toward, in today's case, AAPL. There's always some biggie moving higher, sustaining the illusion that all is well on Wall Street. It isn't, and that's why we should treat the rally from late December's lows as a bull trap. We can go with the flow in the meantime as we have been doing. At the same time, we'll continue to monitor stalls at important Hidden Pivots as occurred in Facebook. By keeping a midpoint resistance at 174.04 in our sights we avoided getting sucked in ahead of today's 4% downdraft.

Let's try to leverage a possible bounce from p2=28.86 by bidding 0.18 for four (or a multiple thereof) 22 March 32 calls, day order. If you're new to this strategy, let me make clear that it's a longshot bet. As such, you should wager no more than you can comfortably kiss good-bye. Our bid lies a penny above a 0.17 downside target in the options.  If the order fills, offer half of the position to close for 0.40, good till canceled.______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 10:39 a.m. EDT): Orders filled at 0.15, since the exchanges, at least in this instance, supposedly are trading only in nickel increments. You should lower to 0.35 the offer to close out half. Also, for good measure kiss your $60 good-bye. _______ UPDATE (Mar 18, 6:02 p.m.): We hold a longshot bet. Stand pat for now. _______ UPDATE (Mar 22, 12:27 a.m.): With the E-Mini S&Ps down as much as 52 points so far, volatility has exploded, pushing our calls from a low of 0.02 to as high as 0.50. Since this represents a tripling in their initial price, you should have taken profits on at least half of the position, leaving yourself with a few calls to swing for the fences.

The Dow's ability to forge relentlessly higher with Boeing shares getting slammed is unprecedented. We might as easily have imagined Duke's basketball team winning the upcoming NCAA tournament with Zion Williamson out of commission. The six-foot, seven-inch, 285-pound power forward sprained his knee and has missed several games since one of his Nike sneakers blew apart during a widely televised match-up with North Carolina. Nike shares have inexplicably surged since the accident, which arguably was the worst publicity a maker of athletic equipment has ever received. There was a time when serious weakness in Boeing, the most important stock in the blue chip average, would have weighed on investors. These days, however, the geniuses who get paid to throw Other People's Money at a handful of stocks evidently have so much of it sitting idle that shares cannot simply rest for a day, especially when cyclical forces are as powerfully bullish as they are now. Look for their shills in the news media to soften and brighten the Boeing story ("Nothing to see here, folks. Just a minor software glitch that will be fixed in a jiffy.") as much as possible in the days ahead, so that the business of Wall Street -- i.e., filling the stock market with hot gas -- can resume in earnest. Don't Be Surprised The Dow has gained 250 points since a 737 Max jetliner went down in Ethiopia, killing all 157 aboard. The aircraft has been grounded around the world, causing Boeing shares to plunge from recent highs near 446 to a low this afternoon at 336.  BA looks primed to fall a further $54, but don't be surprised if the Industrial Average acts as though it can barely wait to recoup heavy losses from Q4 2018 to achieve new record highs.