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This is the first chart I've drawn that projects a gold price above $5000/oz. The pattern is probably too obvious to work precisely, but that won't negate its ability to keep us confidently on the right side of the trend. A theoretical buy signal has already been signaled with the thrusts through the green line (x=4234.40). However, we can't know how likely the 5126.10 target is to be achieved until we've seen buyers interacts with the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 4529.79. For now, we can use it as a minimum upside projection. As always, a decisive move through p, and particularly a close above it, would shorten the odds of a continuation to D.

Like UFOs and Bigfoot, far more bear market sightings are imagined than real. I thought I'd spotted Papa Bear myself when Nvidia announced terrific earnings a couple of weeks ago, only to see their shares reverse and dive sharply after a deceptive spike higher. Was this the needle prick that burst the AI bubble? It certainly seemed like it; for it was not merely plausible, but logical, given that Wall Street and the entire investment world were desperately counting on a single company, albeit a $5 trillion one, to turn sagging markets around. They got their wish, but it was a delayed reaction that must have spooked many investors. Stocks plunged for several days after the announcement before catching a bottom and reversing steeply. Your editor was one of the non-believers who were certain stocks had entered a bear market that was long overdue. It wasn't just Nvidia's performance, either. Trump's fortunes, if not to say his very credibility, seemed to be ebbing, in part because his nemesis Epstein was creeping back into the headlines. The President was uncharacteristically back on his heels, seemingly in synch with falling stocks. But within a few days, NVDA appeared to be basing, Trump was masterfully diverting the news media toward a possible peace pact between Russia and Ukraine, and stocks were in a steep recovery. It was sufficiently ferocious to seem like a classical bear rally, and that's what I assumed it was  -- until, that is, in just three days, the broad averages had already maneuvered to within easy distance of new highs. That was on Friday, and there's no point pretending the rally is a fake, destined to end with a whimper. Place Your Bets I continue to believe, nonetheless, that stocks are in a topping process. However, a bear market

A minor rally target posted in the chat room on Wednesday caught Friday's spike high within 0.04%, but there's more rally room to at least 94,155 once Bitcoin completes its pullback. The whipsaw reversal to the downside shaved nearly $3,000 from the peak price in under three hours, underscoring the nasty volatility that occurs in this vehicle between swing highs and lows that have been precisely predictable. For those who trade BTC over the weekend, look for a reversal from 89,980 to leverage.  Be aware, however, that a decisive breach of this midpoint Hidden Pivot support (15m, a= 92,804 on 11/28) could send Bitcoin down to at least 88,688 in search of traction. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 7:30 p.m.): Bitcoin's slide through the 'hidden' supports given above implies more slippage to 86,884. If that Hidden Pivot gives way, the next support would be at 83,746, and thence 80,607. _______ UPDATE (Dec 1, 8:52 p.m.):  The low of today's plunge came within 54 points, or six-hundredths of one percent, of the 83,746 target given above. The lowest number in the sequence, 80,607, remains valid as a minimum downside objective if BTC relapses, and a run-up to 90,023 would trigger a theoretical 'mechanical' short, stop 93,163.

I've displayed a bullish pattern because the fall from mid-October's 112.45 peak didn't quite reach the corrective pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot (p).  The uptrend struggled for loft last week, however, and failed by 9 cents to trigger a conventional 'buy' signal at 95.79. The trigger will remain valid until such time as GDXJ slips beneath the 'C' low at 92.66.  We'll adjust C downward if that occurs, but below 91.50, the short-term outlook would shift to bearish. Even so, a tightly stopped bid can be attempted there if you're a scalper, since it is the 'd' target of a small reverse pattern.

There'll be more to say about the bear market as it develops. It has taken some baby steps so far, with a 2,100-point slide in the Dow over several days, then a stunning, 1,115-point reversal to the downside after Nvidia announced strong earnings last Thursday. Talking heads and editorialists opined that quarterly numbers were not quite as sensational as investors had anticipated, but they missed the point. For just as poor earnings barely fazed stocks during the 16-year bull market, merely decent earnings are unlikely to provide more than fleeting upticks in a bear market. Get used to it, because this new dynamic will be with us until shares hit bottom years from now. With respect to Nvidia, it didn't help that Wall Street and every investor on earth was desperately counting on their earnings announcement to reverse the slide of the broad averages in the days preceding the report. When the Dow notched a record high on November 12, pundits paid scant attention to the failure of the usually feisty Nasdaq Index and the 'Cubes' (QQQ) to follow suit. Six months from now, however, this divergence will be seen as one of those bells that supposedly doesn't ring at the top. Making Disney a Has-Been Although my vantage point on Nvidia is purely technical, others saw the stock's punitive reversal as related to the questionable way they report earnings. One analyst cited the exceptionally long lag time between billings and receipts. Were the global economy to fall into recession, he notes, the manufacturer could conceivably get stiffed by strapped customers, wiping billions of dollars in profits already recorded from Nvidia's books. 'Fundamentals' undoubtedly figured into NVDA's surprising plunge, but the long-overdue deflation of AI hubris was surely a more powerful factor. I address this subject in a recent interview

Bitcoin is due for a bounce, so I've focused on the smallest possible instance of it on the hourly chart. It tripped a minor buy signal at 82,617 on Friday, then delivered an opportunity to take a small partial profit 86,685, the pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. The overshoot of p was slight, but it is still sufficient for us to infer the bounce will achieve the 'd' target at 88,821. Scalpers can short there provide they've made a profit on the way up and that they are able to keep entry risk down to 0.1% or less. The short squeeze powering this oversold rally could be nasty, so be prepared for significantly higher prices, albeit not to a new record high.  (UPDATE: Bitcoin is a nuisance for me to track because it never stops to observe a sabbath. The analysis above was prescient and precise, as you have come to expect from Rick's Picks. However, between the time I prepared the forecast a day ago, when this symbol was trading for around 84,630, and now (Sunday morning), it has frog-leaped higher and will soon be at my 88,821 target.  I don't ordinarily publish a new slate of touts until late Sunday afternoon, but I'm going to hit the send button on this update now, since I don't want it to appear as though I am predicting the little s.o.b.'s every move with hindsight. As long-time subscribers will have observed, it is no great trick to forecast Bitcoin's hysterics precisely and consistently using the Hidden Pivot Method.)

My hardcore deflationist point of view has saddled me with a bullish bias whenever I ponder a T-bond chart. Although this allowed me to catch the October 2023 bottom just off the low, it also caused me to see the nearly two-year dirge that has occurred since as base-building for a long bull market that has yet to materialize. I don't doubt that it's coming, presumably in conjunction with the next recession. But TLT's chart suggests it could take many months before it rises and, inversely, yields begin to fall. In the meantime, look for it to scuddle sideways, with a moderate bias to the downside that would correspond to merely somewhat higher long-term rates.  Altering our expectations in this way can help diminish the distraction of believing Trump can do something about it -- i.e., about rates determined by markets, and about high levels of debt that are crushing America's middle class. He can't, and his expansionist, credit-driven economic policies will only exacerbate the bearish trend in bonds. Suppose the small rise in their price over the last two years has completely discounted the global appeal of Trump's bold leadership and the additional demand this has created for U.S. Treasury paper. In that case, it's hard to imagine a bullish surge in T-bonds when the President's inflationary policies produce the opposite of instant economic miracles: stagflation. ______ UPDATE (Dec 3): TLT is breaking down in the context of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern begun three months ago. This is within the scope of my original tout (see above), which was intended to provide a much more accurate picture for long-term rates than the guys and gals with degrees in economics who toss darts to predict such things. Rising rates and inflation are going to increasingly hurt Trump's credibility and popularity

Friday's carnage left the futures on track for a likely relapse to the 3976.20 target shown in the chart.  A bullish alternative would start with a rally exceeding Friday's intraday high at 4215.10. New record highs would become an odds-on bet at that height. Because the reverse pattern yielding the 3976.20 target, a Hidden Pivot support, is not obvious, bottom-fishing there is recommended. I'd suggest using a 'camo' trigger from a lesser intraday chart to do this, however, since there are several prior lows to the left that are likely to attract competition from overly eager buyers, some of whom are as clever as we are. ________ UPDATE (Nov 18, 10:29 p.m.): Buyers came back to life, giving the futures a possible reprieve. The uptrend projects to 4144.60, and a pullback to 4034.20 can be bought with a 3997.00 stop-loss. The rally will still need to exceed 4215.10 to tell us that bulls are ready for a charge to new record highs. _______ UPDATE (Nov 20, 9:03 a.m.): The futures have rallied as high as 4096 after lightly kissing the bid I'd suggested above at 4034.20 with a 4034.00 low. The subsequent rally could have produced a profit of more than $6000 per contract, but I have not established a tracking position because no one mentioned it in the chat room. The 4144.60 target has yet to be achieved, and the effort is not pretty to watch, but it remains valid nonetheless as a minimum objective.

We've vested our confidence in a 91,358 correction target that was signaled more than a month ago, when Bitcoin fell from a record 126,296 on Oct 6 to a sell signal at 117,561 a few days later. This week's update features an alternative at 89,864 that is nearly as likely to arrest the damage, at least for a while, as the higher number. As a practical matter, we can attempt tightly stopped bottom-fishing at either using a 'trigger' pattern extracted from a lesser chart. I expect a tradable bounce to come from within 0.2% of these Hidden Pivot supports, enabling us to hold entry risk down to perhaps $100-$200. Tune to the chat room for guidance if the opportunity gets close. _______ UPDATE (Nov 18, 10:10 p.m.): Bitcoin has turned higher from an 89,183 low that missed the target flagged above by 0.7%. The bounce so far  has traveled 4592 points to a so-far high at  93,775, but it will need to exceed 95,950 before bulls are out of short-term jeopardy. ________ UPDATE (Nov 21, 9:19 a.m.): Expect Bitcoin to continue falling to 72,808 before it turns around -- and not for good. It will have shed 42% of its peak value at that point. A low there would generate a robustly bearish impulse leg on the weekly chart, something that hasn't happened since a weak leg formed in May 2022, on the way down to 15.460. The implication is that whatever rally follows the low will be corrective and therefore a sale or short sale.