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The impulsive phase of Bertie's rally is quite steep, and I therefore doubt that C-D can replicate it. D=30,873 looks quite achievable nonetheless, and so you can use the pattern shown to get long 'mechanically' with a bid at x-25,676, stop 23,942.  We don't typically risk that much initiating trades, so I am suggesting this one only to traders who know how to cut the entry risk by 90% of more with a 'camouflage' trigger. Please note that BRTI is not a tradeable symbol, but rather a real-time reckoning of best bids and offers across a wide variety of cryptos. ______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 9:10 a.m.): Bertie took a gratuitous poke at p2=29,141 that did not alter the odds of a finishing stroke to D=30,873. Here's the new chart.

When I refer to Fed chairman Powell or to the Fed governors, collectively, as morons, I'm not suggesting that readers take this characterization literally. Indeed, most of them have IQs that are probably twice the 51-70 range that would categorize a person clinically as a moron. (It is only when casting aspersions on politicians, some of whom demonstrate persuasively and often that their IQs are in the 26-50 range, that the term "imbecile" may be construed literally.) To give economists their due -- even economists like Powell and 'Easy Al' Greenspan, who were elevated to positions of leadership by, mostly, political imbeciles -- the men (and woman: Janet Yellen ) who inventively script U.S. monetary policy are intelligent and well-schooled. It is only when they attempt to bend their knowledge toward the running of the economy that we see clear evidence of impaired thinking. How else to characterize the moronic idea that the more we borrow, the richer we become? And yet, so devoted are economists to this crackpot scheme that they would set it aside only temporarily when it appears to beckon disaster. They tighten, that is, only to set up the next phase of easing. This has been the Fed's MO since the central bank was created in 1913 as an instrument financiers could use to steal from the rest of us without detection. The ruse has succeeded to a degree that even the greediest of them may never have imagined, but at the cost of creating increasingly devastating boom-and-bust economic cycles over the last hundred years. We're All Bozos We are all complicit, to be sure, since the Fed is able to 'manage our expectations' only because tens of millions of Americans think and act like economic morons. For instance, we borrow against inflated home values to

The dollar has looked like hell for the last three weeks, but I've given it the bullish benefit of the doubt nonetheless because DXY signaled an appealing 'mechanical' buy with last Wednesday's fall to the green line (x=102.60). The implied rally target of the modest rABC pattern shown is 107.92, but that Hidden Pivot resistance would need to be slightly exceeded in order to take out a crucial external peak at 107.99 recorded last November. That would signal the likely return of the long-term bull market begun at the start of 2021 from 80.21. Alternatively, if the dollar continues to fall, it should be presumed bound for the 98.71 target shown here. This pattern also strongly implies that DXY should be 'mechanically' shorted at the green line (x=104.09). The bullish target at 107.92 would still be viable unless 100.82 were exceeded to the downside. (That's the 'c' low of the pattern shown in the inset.)

Buyers blew past the 1964.50 D target of a minor pattern with such ease on Friday that they all but clinched a further run-up to the 2036.40 target of the larger pattern shown (see inset). The psychologically important $2000 barrier is unlikely to provide much resistance as the new week begins, although it could act as support on a pullback. The move has been so steep that it has offered few opportunities to get aboard 'mechanically, even on the lesser charts. Gold should start turning up in the headlines once it is trading comfortably above 2000, and that could be a problem for spinmeisters who would deign to suggest that all is right with the world. _______ UPDATE (Mar 20, 8:45 p.m.): Apparent distribution over the last two days has created a minor but potentially controlling head-and-shoulders pattern with the potential to send the futures down to 1930 or so in search of traction. _______ UPDATE (Mar 22, 9:11 p.m.): Today's nutty, Fed-induced rally spilled into gold, driving the April contract into a parabola that negated the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned above. The new pattern project to 2034.20, with midpoint resistances, still untested. at 1985.40. Here's the chart.

TLT had a busy week clearing the way for a strong push to D=115.32. It started with a fist-pump past the midpoint 'hidden' resistance at 107.10. The breach was sufficient to suggest the target is about 75% likely to be achieved. The picture of strength brightened still more when the pullback from Monday's upthrust failed to set up a 'mechanical' buy at the green line. Having fewer bulls aboard, and therefore less profit-taking, will always steepen the trajectory of a rally. For now, use p2=111.21 as a minimum upside projection for the near term. _______ UPDATE (Mar 25): No change. _______ UPDATE (Mar 31): Still no change, although TLT would trip a 'mechanical' buy if it were to feint down to x=102.99.

On a long-term chart, the exceptionally clean reverse pattern shown reveals some mildly disturbing signs that we hadn't detected before. First there was the dip beneath the pattern's D target at 3584.75. The 80-point overshoot amounts to 2.2%, and although that may not seem like much, for a pattern this crisp, any breach exceeding even 1% should be viewed as moderately bearish. The stall on the rebound at p=4196 is not quite as compelling because the Hidden Pivot levels were already spent. However, the bounce from D appears to have lacked guts because it died well shy of the 'external' peak just to the left. All of these factors together do not necessarily spell collapse, but they argue for trading the S&Ps with a bearish bias. Here's a weekly chart of the June contract that projects to as low as 3425.75 if sellers take out p=3834.88 decisively. The futures were a spec buy when they nearly touched the red line, but because the low missed it by five points, a run-up to the green line would not trigger a 'mechanical' short under a strict interpretation of our rules. I've offered a bigger picture than usual because smaller ones show an impacted mess that is best traded on sub-hourly charts. _______ UPDATE (Mar 22, 9:00 p.m. EDT): This afternoon's universally expected outbreak of mental illness produced no significant changes in the technical picture. A Mexican standoff began on Feb 13 when the futures reversed from p=3824 of this presumptive bear-market pattern. This was a logical place for a trend, even a major one, to end, but we will continue to bide our time trading the swings until a clearer signal comes. Bears may be feeling burned out by now, but that is no reason for them to think the bear rally

Just a little more selling would have brought May Crude down to a back-up-the-truck low at 64.25 where we would all have become bulls. Alas, the futures ran out the clock last week pussyfooting with lows just above this Hidden Pivot support, leaving a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the world's most valuable commodity as the new week begins. There is obviously a lot of bottom-fishing going on, so we should expect some more stop-outs beneath prior lows before crude gets traction. Another possibility, less likely, would be a gap-up opening on Sunday that leaves bulls choking on dust. _______ UPDATE (Mar 20, 9:14 p.m.): The futures rallied nearly $4 from a 64.36 low that missed my target by 11 cents. This happened at 5:00 a.m., however, an inconvenient time for U.S.-based traders. Only one subscriber mentioned it, so I have not established a tracking position. Here's the chart.

To pivot, or not to pivot? That is the question Fed Chairman Powell will have pondered over the weekend while tending chicken breasts, franks and burgers spaced meticulously on the grating of a 148,000 BTU grill. If conscience doth indeed make cowards of us all, we might expect him to act boldly. But how? Does he risk gutting the American Dream for a generation or longer by staying the course? Recall that his last utterance, on March 7, implied not merely that credit tightening would continue, but that it would accelerate. The stock market reacted like a concertgoer sitting in the middle of a row who has just felt the first gurgle of food poisoning in his bowels. Sellers panicked with spasms that quickened as the week wore on, and it was fully five days before fears appeared to recede. Investors opened their air locks last Monday and cautiously drew a lungful of what they hoped would be oxygen. It was, with just enough helium to make the broad averages frolicsome at times, if not quite giddy. One could almost forget that the U.S. economy is in shambles as some of the biggest multinational companies continue to scale back growth and axe workers by the tens of thousands. Biden’s tax proposal threatened to beggar what remains of America’s middle class; the nation’s military preparedness was being exported to Ukraine; and our three worst enemies -- China, Russia and Iran -- were making nice to each other.  Although GDP growth was officially reported most recently at around 3%, pundits were unofficially speaking of recession as though it were an entrenched reality, not merely a threat. The Haymaker If the picture were not already grim enough, the haymaker came last weekend with the failure of two large banks that cater to tech

DaBoyz are taking no prisoners in this rampage to 28,548, a Hidden Pivot resistance that looks likely to be fulfilled precisely. That means that if you've been riding with the move, you should either lighten up or put on some hedges when it gets to where it's going  The pattern is gnarly enough to favor all of our entry strategies, but there have been no pullbacks generous enough to offer a 'mechanical' entry opportunity on charts of this degree. Once above 28,548, bulls will have a lot of chewing to do in order to munch their way through supply just above, and below, the psychologically interesting number 30,000. Those who are trapped in bitcoin at much higher prices will probably need to see 45,000 before they turn from prayerful to greedy. _______ UPDATE (Mar 18, 9:00 a.m. EDT): The above was written after Friday's close. However, that was before I noticed a WSJ story that had been published around the same time. It began as follows: "Barney Frank says regulators seized Signature Bank last weekend because they wanted to send a message to other banks not to do business with the crypto industry. The evidence increasingly suggests the former Congressman could be right."  It is 8:40 Saturday morning, and BRTI for whatever reason appears not to be trading. This is unusual, but perhaps it is just a regular Saturday pause that I hadn't noticed before. In any event, I'll be interested to see how the article affects bitcoin. There are times when seemingly devastating news has no initial impact on a trading vehicle; then, after a baffling period of seeming calm, said vehicle collapses. These delays can be orchestrated by the usual dirtballs, who wisely resist the temptation to panic. This allows them to keep the trading vehicle hovering at altitude for