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March Silver's rally to D=24.95 was signaled a month ago and lies but one good thrust above. That will be scant consolation to bulls who just slogged through yet another week with no reward. Silver futures have outperformed gold, however, having consolidated at p2 while the latter was stuck a level lower at p. A swift pullback to the line (p=22.86) should be used as an opportunity to get long with a 22.16 stop-loss. The risk is substantial, so the trade is recommended only if you know how to cut it by around 90% with a 'camouflage' trigger. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 7:10 p.m.): The recent high at 24.78 fulfilled the target for trading purposes, although it remains theoretically viable.  A 'dynamic' stop-loss would have taken you out of the trade at around 24.77. ________ UPDATE (Jan 6): March Silver is not likely to make a marginal new high that touches our longstanding target at 24.95 only to die there. Assuming buyers pop through it, we should expect Feb Gold to do the same when it reaches a corresponding target at 1907.  The C-D leg has provided only one opportunity so far to get long 'mechanically', adding to the evidence that there is still considerable buying power percolating beneath the surface. Here's the big picture.

Three weeks of jitterbugging around the 104.08 midpoint Hidden Pivot support has left the Dollar Index primed for a fall to at least p2=102.13, and thence to D=100.18, a target first signaled in late November. The weakness has somewhat alleviated pressure on gold and silver and promises to contribute to their further ascent, possibly with a spike finale to an intermediate top. Presumably, it would occur above the 1908.10 peak currently forecast for the March Comex contract. ______ UPDATE (Jan 6): The Dollar Index shook us briefly out of complacency by adding an Ali Shuffle to its all-too-familiar jitterbug routine. A bull-trap rally before Friday's opening bar reversed with such ferocity that we should infer the bearish targets above are still likely to be achieved.  I'll reconsider only if it pops above 105.81. Here's the picture. 

Be skeptical if stocks start the new year on a positive note, since that would be the perfect way for Mr Market to set the hook to trap bulls and bears alike. It would probably take most of the opening session on Tuesday for an enticing rally to build up steam, since the bears who would be doing most of the buying via short-covering will need some painful prodding before they hit the panic button. Mr Market has had an especially hard time trying to stampede them lately, since he holds such lousy cards. Recession is upon us, tightening its grip as the shares of such former world-beaters as Apple, Tesla, Google, Facebook and Amazon have collapsed. This has caused the "wealth effect" to deflate precipitously, unnerving investors who understand that the carnage will end only when a tsunami of exhaustion selling lays waste to the most resilient bulls. Not Bottomless My best-case scenario comes from AAPL's chart, which looks ugly but not bottomless. In fact, the stock need only fall a further $8 or so, to around $121, to find good support at a trendline I've been drum-rolling for months. "Get Apple right and you get the stock market right" has been Rick's Picks' mantra for nearly two years, and it has served us well. Because the stock provided a decade-long free ride for portfolio managers and has hooked them like dope, it will always tell us exactly what's on their minds. Now, despite grim headlines and dark clouds of war and recession hanging over 2023, Apple's chart says the stock market's decline may have just a little further to go before either stabilizing or rebounding. Some of my guru colleagues appear to expect strongly otherwise and have been predicting a January disaster. But don't be surprised if stocks

In an economy that over decades has grown increasingly dependent on revved-up holiday sales, investors have responded by praying more fervently each year for a Santa rally. It's an odd metaphor, however, considering that Wall Street even at its seasonal cheeriest has a heart as cold and dark as volcanic glass. The Santa of investors' imaginations is assuredly not the fat, jolly one originally drawn by a Dutch artist Haddon Sundblom for the Coca-Cola company, but rather someone more like Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gone silly in a headdress of fluffy white dove feathers. Unfortunately, Powell has not left much room for silliness in this holiday season. Gone are the days when Neiman Marcus could get a rise by featuring his-and-hers Bentleys in their Christmas catalog. The typical American household is thinking about more practical presents in these recessionary times: PG&E gift certificates...bread machines and pasta makers...survivalist seed packets...battery chargers. More Turbulence The result for investors has been a balky stock-market shaped more by Scrooge than Santa. Even with bullish seasonality at maximum force last week, the Dow Industrials could muster only a 300-point gain. They closed on Friday at 33,203, down a thousand points since Thanksgiving. More turbulence seems likely in the final days of 2022. Perhaps the best we can hope for when the markets lurch into gear on January 3 is that stocks continue to drift through a circa 1914 minefield without triggering a nuclear war or the debt deflation we all know is coming. [What do the charts say? Click here for my latest interview with Howe Street's Jim Goddard. RA]

The dollar's timid rally last week increased the likelihood that it eventually will fall to the 100.18 target shown before it can turn around. That would equate to a 12.7% decline since DXY topped at 114.78 on September 28.  The correction would be mild relative to the spectacular run-up that commenced from around 90 in mid-2021. Bullion investors should enjoy the favorable tailwind provided by a weak dollar while it lasts. It is also providing respite to Powell & Co. by alleviating deflationary pressures that eventually will asphyxiate consumer inflation and usher in a global economic depression.

Friday's dive stopped a hair shy of the 3848.00 midpoint support shown. Since the trouble began with the March contract's failure to get anywhere near the 4245 rally target I'd proffered, and because minor abcd downtrends subsequently have exceeded their 'd' targets, it seems clear that the bear market is about to return following a two-month hibernation. The 3848 Hidden Pivot was worth bottom-fishing, but because the futures went no lower than 3855, the trade I'd planned to do myself did not trigger. However, several chat-roomers caught the low and bottom-fished it profitably after a subscriber posted a chart showing a 3855 downside target. For now, for purposes of forecasting and trading, I am treating that number as erroneous even though it 'worked'. Regardless, it, too, puts the March contract in a perilous place. If selling resumes on Monday and produces a close below 3848, that would telegraph more downside to at least p2=3682.00. _______ UPDATE (Dec 21, 8:34 p.m.): A vicious short-squeeze, for sure, but I doubt the rally will get legs because of the way sellers crushed p=3849. At x=4014.63, it would trip a 'mechanical' short, stop 4181, but I'd suggest paper-trading unless you know how to cut the $33,200 theoretical entry risk on four contracts down to $1600 or less using a 'camouflage' trigger.  ______ UPDATE (Dec 22, 12:06 p.m.): Now that's more like it! The futures are getting savagely pounded, a reality-based Santa Rally in reverse.  Use the 3682.00 (p2) secondary Hidden Pivot shown in the chart (inset) as a minimum downside target for the holiday season, but keep in mind D=3516.00 as a worst-case projection for the near term. A cascade could make that happen sooner than most on Wall Street might imagine.

In this week's Morning Line commentary, I explained why AAPL's dismal trajectory is about to worsen with a 10% plunge that will sink the stock market as well. More immediately, we are going to see a test of the 130.92 Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart (inset). There is additional, structural support from a key low at 129.69 recorded back in June, so don't expect the stock to break down straightaway. Like many stocks, AAPL is falling after having failed to achieve a clear rally target of daily chart degree. If this ostensible correction overshoots its 'd' target, that would affirm the likelihood that the bear market is back in force after hibernating since October. _______ UPDATE (Dec 21, 8:46 p.m.): My downside target at 130.92 caught the low of a so-far $7 bounce from 129.89. Let's see how well DaBoyz exploit this opportunity, which was ordained by cyclical forces beyond their (and our) understanding.  A small reverse pattern (a=140.00 on 12/7 'daily')  says AAPL will get to at least 139.85, and that a pullback to 132.37 could be bought 'mechanically' with a stop at 129.87. _______ UPDATE (Dec 22, 8:40 p.m.): See my 13:22 chat room post for an explicitly detailed bottom-fishing gambit using expiring at-the-money calls. If you have enabled 'Notifications' on your account dashboard, you would have received a timely email concerning this trade.

Crude's fright-mask squeeze last week would have made a tempting short if it had reached the green line (x=79.44). Alas, buyers quit at 77.75, sending the futures into a $3 dive on Friday to 74.29. The 67.74 downside target remains valid, and so our trading bias should be bearish as a new week begins.  Nudge me in the chat room if another fake rally hits x=79.44, and I may be able to provide timely guidance.______ UPDATE (Dec 22, 9:00 a.m.): See my posts in the chat room earlier this morning regarding timely and real-time trading opportunities in the February contract. 

The bigger the picture, the less glamorous bitcoin seems. Each time it embarks on yet another doomed rally, we are reminded that the supposedly smart money is just as trapped as the hoi polloi. This bitcoin proxy, which reflects best bids and offers in real time across whatever crypto markets still exist, appears bound lower to at least 11,484.  Bitcoin long ago stopped leading the flow of speculative money and now lags it, a lowly slave to the stock market's ups and downs within the context of the bear market begun last January. If Bertie were to rally to the green line (x=21,774), that would be a gift to bears who'd rather short into strength than weakness.