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Bulls might be wondering what they did to deserve such brutal punishment. Why can't gold, which is in a bull market, rise relentlessly like the FAANG stocks have been doing for years? The answer is that gold's bull market is in its adolescence rather than in a hyper-extended blow-off. If it's any consolation, the two day plunge that ended the week failed to wipe out even half of February's strong gains.  The correction probably has at least another day or two to run, but I'd suggest using the pattern shown to get a handle on it as the new week begins. You should have noticed that the futures stopped a split-hair shy of a key resistance I'd flagged at 1977.10, demonstrating yet again their propensity to turn at price points so stupidly obvious that experienced traders are scared out of believing they will work. The best way for us to leverage this kind of group-think is to focus on 'counterintuitive' set-ups in particular, since they harness our own fears to make hay with contrarian ideas. _______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 9:08 a.m.): Here's the same pattern, but with 'C' adjusted higher.  Unless the new 'C' at 1935.20 is exceeded, the pattern should still work well for trading and analytical purposes.

The dollar's precise stall at p=93.38 in early April augured a similarly precise one at the 97.54 'D' target of the pattern. This did in fact occur, but the resistance looks like it is about to give way to a renewed surge following a relatively weak correction that lasted just ten days. The picture will become even more bullish if the buying that powered last week's leap takes out the look-to-the-left peak at 97.80 recorded in June 2020, when the dollar's 'Covid' slide was nearing the halfway point. ______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 7:45 p.m.): Today's coy peek-a-boo high at 97.83 exceeded the peak I'd flagged by just three cents, but that's enough to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart. This is exactly what healthy bull markets do: exceed prior peaks with each new upthrust.

With stocks sharply on the rise last week, bitcoin bears turned unsurprisingly docile. Most bitcoin, a bazillion satoshis' worth, is in the hands of machers who have no plans to sell under any circumstances. That leaves only a relative handful of foolhardy pessimists who seem to think they can turn a profit betting the 'Don't Pass' line in a vehicle completely dominated by strong hands.  When conditions are  right, such as now, all that's needed for Bertie to soar is for what little supply that is sitting on the books to disappear. In the week ahead, look for an effortless ascent to the 42,558 'D' target, telegraphed by an impaling thrust through p=40,172. ______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 8:14 a.m. EST): Gratuitous chop on Friday altered the pattern, lowering the rally target to 41,982, but it remains bullish.  It will still take a decisive push though the new midpoint pivot at 39,509 to clinch an easy ride to 'D'. ______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 8:59 p.m.): We'll spectate for a while as BRTI disembowels doubters. The rally will achieve a minimum 47,191 for certain (60-min, A=  33,044 on 1/24).

The sharp reversal from $100 last week was so predictable that it's hard to take it seriously. Everyone has known that $100 is a psychologically crucial price, implying there is absolutely no way it will cap crude's world-shaking ascent. Enjoy the correction while it lasts, since the new highs that are eventually coming will push gas prices above $6 in California and other places where fuel pretends to be scarce.  The 107.63 target given here earlier still obtains, and only a drop below the 87.46 'external' low recorded on 2/18 would hint that it is not necessarily a done deal. _______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 9:10 a.m. EST): I can't account for having overlooked the very major, 101.88 rally target shown in this chart, but here it is. A place for caution, to be sure, and to squeeze off a tightly stopped short if you know how. ______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 12:17 a.m.): Shorts will have gotten their faces ripped off by today's spectacular bear squeeze, but their pain is the least of civilization's worries. When energy used to power nearly everything on the planet is repriced to take today's massive surge into account, it will turn that which lubricates global economic movement into something like glue.  Under the circumstances, the Dow showed chutzpah to have fallen a mere 500 points. Consider it an odd kind of distribution --the best the sleazeballs who manipulate markets professionally could do. But don't expect the relative softness in selling to last much longer once investors get the message. The same bozos have also underreacted to the breathtaking rally in T-Bonds, but it, too, is about to overtake them with dread. _______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 8:44 a.m.): Speaking of bozos, here's a chart I prepared last night that, if I'd remembered to include it with the update,

Bertie is working on a promising bullish impulse leg, but not outperforming the market as it used to do so effortlessly. The chart I've linked is ostensibly bullish, inferring as it does a massive head-and-shoulders pattern that looks like it will be hard to disrupt. Regardless, this vehicle is just a trade at the moment, so you'll need to nudge me in the chat room if you see any opportunities you'd like vetted.  Notice that sellers could push down to as low as 29,000 without much affecting the constructive look of the big picture.

TLT has bounced from a place that is obvious only to us -- the swaddling bosom, as it were, of a visually defined 'discomfort zone'.  That means the rally has been endowed with enough mystery and surprise to juice it pretty good. Will bulls seize the advantage ? Rather than try to predict, we'll simply keep an eye on it and trade TLT with a bullish bias. Bring your timely ideas to the chat room if you're interested and I will gladly vet and score them using Morning Line odds. _______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 12:10 a.m.): The rally looks certain to hit a minimum D=145.13, given the way buyers obliterated midpoint resistance today at p=139.82. Here's the chart.  ______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 8:05): The worst selloff in recent memory triggered a 'mechanical' buy at x=137.19, stop 134.50. No one mentioned this opportunity, but I'll track it as a paper-trade nonetheless. We're looking to exit at least half at p=139.82. _______ UPDATE (Mar 3, 10:52 p.m.): Once again, a 'mechanical' trade has caught the low of a scary dive to produce a quick and relatively painless winner. T-Bonds' sharp reversal this evening has pushed TLT up to the 139.82 midpoint pivot where I'd advised selling half. If you used expiring, near-the-money calls, they should have more than tripled in value.  Selling TLT against the calls tonight would hedge the profit with a backspread. Here's the chart, with the elongated green bar representing night-session price action.

[The markets will be closed on Monday for President's Day, but I am putting out fresh touts and commentary because DaBoyz are required to briefly let the beast out of its cage on Sunday evening. Up-to-the-minute updates from Rick's Picks will resume on the home page and in the trading rooms on Tuesday.  RA ] Technicians use charts to get a precise handle on trends and price reversals. However, even the unschooled eye can sometimes form a tradeable opinion by merely glancing at a chart. Does the one displayed above tell you anything that might be actionable? To my eye, and without resorting to any of the proprietary tricks that are possible with the Hidden Pivot Method, I see the Dow Industrials rolling over due to the presumptive weight of heavy supply. There are many reasons we could adduce for this; however, pondering 'reasons' would negate the value and usefulness of technical analysis, which shuns 'reasons' as mere noise in order to focus on how an infinitely complex conflation of 'reasons' are actually perceived and acted on by traders and investors. The chart above does not make it possible to infer with confidence that a full-blown bear market is about to unfold. But there is still the visually intuitive sense that: 1) a major rally from these levels is unlikely; and, 2) a large drop is needed to form a base before spectacular new highs could conceivably be achieved.  Again, using only the eyes rather than the brain, how far do you think the decline would have to go in order for a base to form?  There is no correct answer, but my subjective eye 'needs' a selloff into the void between the pink and red lines. Respectively, the levels are a 'secondary' Hidden Pivot at 31,036 and a Hidden

This is a test Tout from Rick's Picks - please ignore Thanks Rick's Picks

For now, allow for minimum downside to the 165.41 midpoint 'hidden' support of this pattern. Because of the mild gnarliness of this picture and the deep-sea location of p, you can try bottom-fishing there with a very tight stop-loss, even using out-of-the-money call options to leverage the bounce. Be sure to cash out half if they double in price!  The chart shown in the inset yields a different and more troubling picture. The stochastic divergence shown is quite bearish, even if it is not yet ominous. I will continue to monitor it, since AAPL remains The Only Stock That Matters. ______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 2022): AAPL's unwillingness to fall is what kept the stock market from continuing Friday's refreshing slide. The Hidden Pivot at 165.41 could still get schmeissed, but that didn't seem likely at the bell. _______ UPDATE (Feb 15, 11:04 p.m.): Even if the pattern shown in this chart doesn't develop into a textbook head-and-shoulders, the look of it at the moment is bullish. To give bears the benefit of the doubt, however, we should hold the applause until such time as buyers push above the key peak at 177.18 recorded on January 12. _______ UPDATE (Feb 17, 6:07 p.m.): Weakness over the last several days has started to bend the head-and-shoulders pattern out of symmetry, somewhat diminishing its bullishness..