July Silver has tripped a theoretical sell signal at 32.110 tied to a D target at 26.405. I doubt it will be that bad, but we should still be prepared for a fall to the midpoint Hidden Pivot, 30.210. We'll make that our minimum downside objective for the near term while planning to bottom-fish there with entry risk under tight control. Because of the way the pattern is constructed, with a somewhat unconventional 'A' and a 'p' Hidden Pivot in the middle of nowhere, a dip to p would provide an exceptional opportunity to bottom-fish. This will obtain unless the futures reverse and pop above C=34.015.
GDXJ is just an inch from touching down at the 57.53 Hidden Pivot target shown. The pattern looks too obvious to work precisely, but it is also sufficiently compelling to all but guarantee a tradable turn from somewhere near 57.53. This usually means that catching the low on a chart of lesser degree will endure a stop-out or two before the vehicle reverses and does what it is supposed to do: make you money. A decisive penetration of 'd', especially on first contact, would be quite discouraging, but I doubt we'll see it. _______ UPDATE (Apr 6): I first mentioned a 72.23 target two months ago when GDXJ was trading in the mid-50s. The target still looks all but certain to be achieved, especially with the recent breach of a 64.23 midpoint Hidden Pivot associated with an even higher target at 111.59 (!) Further attesting to the power of the rally, the thrust exceeded the watershed high at 65.95 recorded in August 2020. Although a stall at 72.23 should be expected, GDXJ would be signaling a potentially ballistic move to 111.59 if it punches through the lower resistance easily. The pattern yielding these targets is compelling, implying that a top of some importance could occur at 111.59. Here is the graph I'm using to get a confident handle on this vehicle. The data go back to 2009, the year in which GDXJ was listed.
We'll have a better idea of how long it might take for Bitcoin to reach the 129,978 target once we've seen buyers interact with the Hidden Pivot midpoint at 102,199. It can serve as our minimum upside objective for now, and also cue up a possible 'mechanical' entry. If the C-D leg of the pattern maintains its current pitch, a pullback to x from above the red line (102,199) would not be unusual. It could set up a juicy opportunity to get long or augment an existing position. _______ UPDATE (May 9, 3:55 a.m. EDT): Bitcoin’s poke on Thursday above a 102,355 ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ has shortened the odds that it will reach the 130,189 'D' target. (Note: These numbers differ slightly from the price points given earlier.) Moreover, a pullback to x=88,362 (the green line), however unlikely, would trigger a juicy theoretical ‘mechanical’ buy, stop 74,419. Let’s wait and see how much the upthrust exceeds p on first contact. Two consecutive weekly closes above it would all but clinch more upside to at least p2=116,247.
The unconventional pattern shown implies that TNX would be a short if it rises to 4.42%. This means interest rates on the 10-Year Note could be at or near a cyclical top at that level. If we treat the graph as we would any other, a fist-pump through c=4.59% would imply that rates are about to rise sharply. But if the 'mechanical' aspect of the trade works the way it's supposed to, rates could be on their way down to as low as 3.90% if they reverse at 4.42%.
June Crude has tripped a moderately appealing 'mechanical' buy signal, but we'll use it to get our bearings rather than try for a quick score. Pullbacks to the green line from the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2=63.66) are riskier to buy 'mechanically', at least for a move back to the target, but the set-up is often good for a one-level ride, in this case from 57.67 to 60.66. It's too late to jump aboard, since the futures are already trading above x=57.67. Still, I'll suggest observing what happens next to familiarize yourselves with the trade and the opportunity big retracements can create..04
The futures were bound for the 5787.25 target shown when the closing bell ended Friday's v-shaped rally. The implied 4.2% gain would put the June contract within shooting distance of old record-highs just above 6200. A move to 5787.25 seemed assured when the trading week ended, since the intraday low occurred precisely on a Hidden Pivot midpoint support. Strong uptrends are supposed to produce weak retracements, according to the rules of my system, and that perfectly describes what happened on Friday. There could be an opportunity to scalp a pullback from p2=5623.00 on the way up, but your trading bias should remain bullish otherwise.
MSFT should have little difficulty reaching the 400.26 rally target early in the week. If the 'D' target were not such a juicy round number, I'd recommend shorting there aggressively. However, many traders will be counting on it to halt the stock's ascent temporarily. The bar that pushed the stock past p=378.06 was bluntly decisive, implying you could buy the stock anywhere above C=355.86 and be confident of cashing it out eventually at 400.26. For better risk management, though, you should try to get long using a 'camouflage' trigger from the 5- or 15-minute chart.
As last week began, rates on the Ten-Year Note looked ready to jump to 4.58% from an already uncomfortable 4.40%. Instead, they eased sufficiently to suggest the trend will continue down to 4.09%, the 'd' target shown in the chart. That might be the most we can hope for, but if the weakness penetrates the 'hidden' support at that level, it could portend more slippage to 4.07%, or even 3.90%. These are somewhat different from the potential lows we were tracking earlier, but the graph looks equally capable of giving us an accurate read over the next 3-5 weeks.
The pattern shown, with a target as high as 130,189, is good enough for government work even though I've settled on an indistinct point 'A' low that could muddy the D target. Regardless, as I've mentioned before, the midpoint pivot is a reliable telltale even when it is embedded in a dubious or too-obvious pattern. It lies at 102,305 here, and so we'll make that our minimum upside objective for the near term. A decisive push through it on first contact would, of course, shorten the odds of a follow-through to at least p2=116,247, or 130,189 if any higher.
So many traders evidently anticipated Friday's low that the futures never got there. The peanut gallery would have been focused on Wednesday's 3270.80 bottom as a logical place for a test of support. It was not to be, however, and my 3264.60 midpoint support finished even further out of the money when the June contract turned higher from 3274.80, a number in the middle of Nowheresville. The subsequent bounce was impulsive on the hourly chart, implying bulls had a reason to hold a position over the weekend. This seems a little too pat to me, but I won't let skepticism cloud my thinking if bullion wants to go higher when the futures start trading again Sunday afternoon. _______ UPDATE (May 1, 12:52 p.m. EDT): Gold’s weakness appears to be merely corrective, and you can therefore expect an upturn from no lower than 3174.50. That’s a Hidden Pivot support that lies about $80 below the current price, 3225. A second possibility, dimming at the moment, would be for this morning’s so-far low at 3209.40 to support a strong rally. That’s a ‘secondary’ Hidden Pivot, and it is capable of turning things around. The so-far moderate decline since April 22 occurred after June Gold peaked within 0.6% of a 3533.90 Hidden Pivot I first featured here when the futures were trading below $2800. It stood to be a potential stumbling block, and that has been the case. However, I doubt that gold has topped for good and expect it to reach $ 5,000 an ounce or more eventually.
