Current Touts

I've synched up Silver's chart with Gold's to show that the former is slightly outperforming the latter, leading the way, as it were. Last week's penetration of the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 24.70 was not sufficiently impressive to make further progress to D=26.62 a surefire bet, but at least it's a start. Similarly to gold, a pullback to the green line at 23,744, especially early in the week, would signal an attractive 'mechanical' buy.  We may be able to improvise on-the-fly, however, if there is not enough weakness to bring the futures down to our niggardly bid.

Bulls did what we asked of them last week, exceeding July's 39.70 peak on a squeeze-powered rally that ended the week. They had given up a lot of ground by day's end, but that won't diminish the authority of the impulse leg the rally created on the daily chart, and neither will the fact that the prior peak was exceeded by just 12 cents. It's all good, as they say, and we can therefore expect this vehicle to continue up to a minimum 41.81.  In the meantime, any one-level pullback from 40.09 or higher would set up an opportune 'mechanical' buy, even at the red line (where a 37.22 stop-loss would obtain).

Last week's rally, which occurred almost entirely with a leap on Monday, brought the futures to within easy distance of testing my recommendation to short the green line (x=75.88) 'mechanically'.  The textbook stop-loss would be just above the 'C' high at 79.57, implying nearly $15,000 of entry risk on four contracts. I will try to provide real-time guidance for this if there is strong interest in the chat room, but in any case we should be able to determine with a high degree of confidence whether the mini-bear market begun in late September from around 88 is over.

It may seem churlish for me to point this out, but the apex of last week's rally did not quite achieve the 4836.50 target shown in the chart. It fell 5.75 points shy -- enough in the context of so subtly perfect a pattern to temporarily cast doubt on the bullish enterprise, such as it is. A fist-pump through the target on Tuesday or Wednesday would put bulls back on track with more short-covering, the sustaining force behind a run-up begun in October that long ago exceeded the threshold of sanity. Assuming stocks head lower when trading resumes after Christmas, expect the March contract to fall to at least 4778.50, and thence to 4735.25 if any lower. You can bottom-fish at the latter number provided you know how to chisel the risk down to relative pocket change with a 'camouflage' trigger. The numbers are, respectively, the p and Hidden Pivots of the small reverse pattern shown here. It worked nicely on Friday, producing a gain of as much as $5,000 on four contracts for any subscriber who shorted at 4811.50 on the way down as I explicitly advised in the chat room.

This should be interesting, since the Dollar Index has triggered an appealing 'mechanical' buy with its return to the green line earlier this month. A stop-loss at 99.59 would apply, although we won't be trading on the signal.  A sustained rally would end the stock-market rally begun in October, since there is nothing that Wall Street, the banksters and everyone who owes money should fear more than a resurgent dollar. My hunch is that the rally would need to reach p2=109.66 or so before still-dim perceptions of the threat would sharpen. The first to feel the pain would be the growing hoard of motorists whose cars, including a few Bentleys, are slated for repossession. I'm looking for this debtor epiphany to occur simultaneously with MSFT's fall from a 430.58 bull-market target billboarded here earlier.

The short squeeze turned savage last week with a thrust that surpassed not only a 'secondary pivot' of daily-chart degree at 4754, but July's watershed peak at 4738 as well.  This show of bravado all but locked up more upside to at least 4950.00, the Hidden Pivot target of a bull cycle begun nine months ago. The flurry of crazed buying went into overdrive on Wednesday, spurred by a flash of 'pivot' porn from Jerome Powell that was subsequently retracted, sort of.  With the S&Ps in a blowoff, we should expect them to reach the target in less time than the month it took to get from p to p2. _______ UPDATE (Dec 20, 11:57 p.m.): When stocks plunge inexplicably as they did this afternoon, it's tempting to think they are at long last starting to respond rationally to troublesome developments in the real world. Not necessarily. Although the herd may in fact be infected with fatal spores of madness, I am sticking with my ambitious rally target at 4950.00. My confidence is based on the way buyers easily conquered the daunting midpoint resistance at 4559.00 shown in the chart. 

It wasn't long ago that we were reading about a menacing slowdown of iPhone sales in China, but the news evidently has been forgotten with the stock's push into new record territory. It has trailed Microsoft for a few good reasons but now appears eager to make up for lost time. Most immediately, that would portend a run-up over the very near term to 204.01, the Hidden Pivot target of the eye-jarring pattern shown in the chart. If bears push past it easily with feverish short-covering in the days ahead, it would bring into play a 253.96 target derived from a lower 'A' at 53.15 recorded in March 2020.

Feb Gold has been the unwitting slave of  the bullish pattern show, with a 2250.00 target that has been in play since mid-October. The bounce off last week's low was encouraging, since the futures managed to finish the week with a gain that left it comfortably above the midpoint of the weekly range. Nasty takedowns are still possible, but $2000 may have become a floor beneath which bulls would swarm thin, insincere offers. _______ UPDATE (Dec 19, 1:47 p.m.): I said in the chat room that Feb Gold would hit 2086, but Martin Armstrong's cautionary cited in the chat room has reminded me that I should wait for that to happen instead of pretending I have a crystal ball that says it will. The chart is mildly encouraging because the recent high at 2152 impulsively exceeded May's 2140 peak. That means the subsequent plunge to 1987 was/is corrective. But there are no guarantees that the theoretical buy signal at x=2037 will get the futures to p=2086.4. I do hope this happens, however, since price action at p can tell us a lot about the health and sincerity of the uptrend since October. In theory, the bullish impulsiveness of the weekly chart could survive a plunge all the way down to 1845, even if few bulls would be left standing to cheer it.

Silver has pulled out of a steep dive that retraced more than 80% of the rally begun in mid-November from 22.26. We are likely to know soon whether the reversal is capable of achieving the 26.865 target shown, since a crucial resistance lies just above in the form of a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 24.82, As always, an easy penetration of this obstacle, or better yet two consecutively weekly closes above it, would suggest bulls are back in charge.  This seems very likely because the impulse leg that drove the futures to their most recent high at 26.34 surpassed two 'external' peaks and one 'internal' without taking a breather.