Current Touts

Silver's breakout last week above the watershed high at 30.94 recorded in August 2020 is the subject of my latest commentary. The move has opened a path to the pattern's 'D' target at 36.96, a Hidden Pivot resistance that looks capable of stopping the bull in its tracks, albeit not necessarily for good. For now, though, we should treat the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 32.42 with the same deference we give midpoint resistances (p) and supports. It can serve as a minimum objective for the moment, but also as a place to hedge or adjust long positions, or even to get short for a while. If buyers impale p2 on first contact, that would likely clinch a move to 36.96.

The long-term picture shows the dollar's three-year-old bull market to be mildly resurgent. Although the most recent rally failed to punch past October 6's 107.35 peak, the move to p2=106.44 was sufficient to keep the chart constructive. Specifically, DXY would become an appealing 'mechanical' buy if it comes down to the green line (x=102.56).  Thereupon, a one-level move back to at least p=104.50 would be more or less assured, even if further upside to p2, or to D=108.38, would probably be no better than an even bet.

There were two good reasons for the June contract to have retreated from its recent high at 86.97. First was the daunting resistance from the 88.15 peak recorded nearly two years ago, and second was a coincident Hidden Pivot resistance at 88.31 that is shown in the chart. Together, with help from behind-the-scenes election-year manipulation, they stopped a move into the $90s that still seems all but ordained by the longer-term chart. In the meantime, the so-far moderate correction looks to be in no hurry to get traction. It suggests that quotes could be rangebound-to-lower until mid-summer (or so).  Of course, there will always be the possibility of an exogenous event or even a black swan spiking prices outlandishly. Considering that Houthi missiles fired at tankers in the Suez caused barely a blip in quotes, however, we can assume that larger forces of supply and demand are in near-stasis at the moment and will continue to keep volatility subdued. _______ UPDATE (May 25): I'm updating with a chart of the July contract, but the comments above still apply. It has just breached a double support by dipping beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 76.48 and also May's 76.36 low. It has rallied as we might have expected, since crude is the champ of fake-outs that stop out everyone, but I doubt it'll get very far.

Bulls will face a crucial test at 49.02, the Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance shown in the chart. It is congruent with my outlook for gold and silver futures, which although sunny is not limitless. The target seems certain to be achieved, and your trading bias should therefore be aggressively bullish in the interim.  This means naked-shorting puts is okay, provided you understand the risks and your account can handle it.  Scalping against the trend would be warranted if p=49.02 is hit at the same time gold and silver futures reach their respective targets.

The armpit-sniffing monkeys who believe themselves to be in control of the markets seem to have forgotten what kicked off this too-steep rally. It was the uncannily well-timed announcement by AAPL of a $110 billion stock buyback a week earlier. Ironically, although AAPL appears to have stalled out with a relatively modest 6% gain on news they'd ginned up themselves to cover a faltering outlook, the S&Ps were as revved-up as ever last week, looking like they want to vault the previous all-time high at 5333.50 recorded on April Fool's Day. They made such dramatic progress toward that goal last week that I am not going to insist that the old high will endure. Even so, I will be on Defcon One alert to the possibility Mr. Market will set the hook for bulls and bears alike via an irresistible feint to marginal new highs. Buying power would be supplied mainly by short-covering, so look for signs that bears are getting shredded, defenestrated, mauled, tortured and impaled by oscillations near 5333.50.

The rally off the 389 low recorded on April 29 has exceeded just one 'internal' peak, meaning it is not impulsive, strictly speaking. It also left the stock well shy of the 430.82 high recorded on March 21. Subscribers will be familiar with that number by now, since it was first introduced in 2023 as a potentially very important rally target. I'll be interested to see whether the stock languishes well below the high even as the S&Ps push to a new record. We'll be on our guard in any case, prepared to short this little monster if it shows even subtle signs of topping. A reverse-pattern target at 421.63 still looks like our best bet for this to occur.

The June contract has been routinely generating buy signals on the intraday charts, but the upthrust that ended the week created a strong signal on the daily chart. Judging from the ease with which buyers penetrated the green line (x=2352.40), more progress to at least p=2419.50 seems assured. That would leave the futures somewhat shy of the record 2448.80 recorded a month ago, but it would also 'magnetize' the peak to draw a test of resistance.  We should pay close heed to price action at p, since a decisive push past it would put D=2553.80 solidly in play.

Silver stalled Friday precisely at the 29.00 midpoint of the bullish pattern shown. My gut feeling is that it will finish the week above this Hidden Pivot resistance, presumably bound for at least p2=30.37, and thence D=31.75.  These are relatively modest targets in comparison to longer-term charts that show upside potential to 36.03 and higher, but we'll take them one at a time, the better to keep risk under tight control as we augment and hedge positions on the way up.  If you're keen on trading this vehicle, please be vocal about it in the chat room.

Rather than speculate on whether this vehicle will push above mid-April's 44.70 peak, I've drawn a chart that you can use to trade it knowledgeably. Friday's weakness triggered a theoretical sell signal with downside potential to as low as d=41.47. However, the pattern can be used to bottom-fish at any of the three levels yet to be achieved: p=42.92, p2=42.24 and d. In each case, you should get long with a reverse-pattern trigger that comes from the lesser intraday charts. There's a possibility the downtrend will turn from p=42.92 and go on to surpass the 44.26 high. That's why some call options acquired at p should be held for a possible swing for the fence.