Rick’s Picks

Friday's blast through p=23.03 clinched more upside to at least 24.08, the unexciting target of the pattern shown.  That would amount to a rally of just 60 cents, but if the futures thrust past this 'hidden resistance', we could look for a test of the peak at 24.895 recorded on December 22. It's too early to start counting our chickens, especially given the way the futures have underperformed since early December. But our bias will be bullish for now. Since the last correction would have trashed a 'mechanical' bid at the green line, I won't suggest attempting to buy there if the opportunity presents itself.

It took TLT more than a year to achieve the 100.25 target of the reverse pattern shown, and so the three-week-long correction that has occurred so far should be viewed as an early phase of whatever retracement is coming. That doesn't preclude the possibility of a reversal at any time, even in the next week or two, that would take this T-Bond ETF to new recovery highs. Most immediately, though, technical signs suggest the correction will come down to 91.20, and that is where we should look for signs that the worst is over. Probably not, but as always, we'll let the price action speak for itself. _______ UPDATE (Feb 23): Friday's strong rally derailed what had looked like an unavoidable descent to the 91.20 target noted above. The bounce, if that's what it is, should carry to at least p=94.94. Even at 96.80, however, the thrust would still offer a promising opportunity to get short 'mechanically' for a one-level ride south, at least.

The chart offers a moderately bullish picture of the dollar, but with one caveat: the impulsive rally last summer to 107.35 just missed exceeding a small but important peak at 107.99 recorded along the dollar's horrific plunge in late 2022/early 2023.  This subtle but significant failure does not preclude the possibility of a further rally to D=108.38.  Actually, it seems entirely likely based on the teasing interaction between buyers and the pattern's 104.50 midpoint resistance. But don't expect the C-D phase of the bull cycle begun in July to play out symmetrically relative to the A-B leg. This means it could take a while longer for the second leg to reach its destination than the 11 weeks required by the first.

Here's a picture I can't recall having seen before -- and on the weekly chart, no less. We would ordinarily expect buyers to have show deference toward the 4950.00 Hidden Pivot resistance, which could not be more clear or compelling. Instead, they plowed right through it last week, turning it into a launching pad to lengthen the previous week's modest breakout. It's possible this will turn out to have been brought on by the pattern's obviousness. If so, the rally will not have much further to go until it sputters out. But the impalement of D has already been sufficient to suggest otherwise -- i.e., that it is unadulterated, muscular buying that has turned the resistance into chop suey. Regardless, I'll suggest using this extremely gnarly pattern to get a fix on the trend Sunday night/Monday morning.  Price action at p absolutely guarantees D=5061.00 will be reached, at least. If it, too, gets blown away, bears had better get out of the way. However, if the futures into creep up to D Sunday evening or at the opening, you can try shorting there with a trigger interval (TI) as tight as 4.25 points.

The pattern shown simplifies AAPL's tortured histrionics so that you can trade the stock without fear of significant loss. A drop to x=183.27, for starters, could be bought 'mechanically' for a minimum one-level ride. And D=195.33 could be shorted, albeit gingerly, with the tightest possible stop off a reverse pattern. If the stock pops through 195.33 with little effort, you can infer that the rally is about to pick up tempo and move into record territory for the third time since July.

Ten mincing steps higher, one or two devastating steps back. That's the way gold rolls. It is such as nasty little sonofabitch that we can only infer Mr Market is intent on terminally discouraging every last bull before he lets it fly. The chart shown is short-term bearish, although not horrifically so. It suggests the futures are on their way down to at least 2017.50 most immediately. There's a chance it could catch a bounce at p2=2028.50, in which case you'll want to use a tight trigger interval of perhaps 2 points for bottom-fishing. Make sure it's tied visually to a clear 'a-b' leg on the 30-minute chart or less. There is also voodoo number just above p2 that I will leave to be discovered and used by hawk-eyed Pivoteers.

The futures are on a reverse-pattern buy signal triggered nearly three weeks ago at the green line (x=23.06). They haven't done much since, other than disappoint, but the signal remains valid nonetheless until such time as the March contract drops below C=22.04.  My gut feeling is that the trade will work, delivering at least a one-level ride to p=22.08. However, I'd be tempted to try again with a tighter reverse pattern if sellers should stop out C. A voodoo number sits about 30 points below it and could be useful for those inclined to trade this vehicle and who are familiar with voodoo set-ups.

The pattern shown may not be pretty, but it is textbook-perfect for bottom-fishing. I hesitated to spotlight so promising a Hidden Pivot, since doing so is likely to impact its usefulness, but here it is anyway. The 32.05 low from October 10 could interfere, but possibly in a good way, since GDXJ would have to break down below it to actually set up a reverse=pattern buy. I will not mention this further in the chat room, nor even provide the target in this tout, but you can see for yourself where it lies, and you can use it to get long with risk very tightly managed.  A trigger interval of 21 cents looks about right for the job.

However high stocks climb, there will always be an earnest, bespectacled egghead on Wall Street ready to tell us why shares are likely to keep on rising. Here's Yung-Yu Ma, chief Investment officer for a firm called BMO Wealth Management and a finance professor at Lehigh University: “A better economy, healthy profits and lower inflation,” he avers, are what have powered the stock market to its fourteenth gain in the last 15 weeks (a feat last accomplished 52 years ago), Better, healthier and lower than what? one might ask.  If Mr. Yung is comparing the U.S. economy to that of Venezuela or West Virginia, then he is more or less correct: We are living in a relative economic paradise. But at what cost?  It has taken $2.5 trillion in fiscal stimulus to keep the U.S. out of statistical recession. This sum unfortunately has not slowed the commercial real estate market's inexorable drift toward collapse. The coming plunge is certain to be steep, since more than $1 trillion in commercial mortgage loans will have to be refinanced over the next two years, at significantly higher rates and with property values already eroding dramatically. To add force to the incipient downturn, layoffs are growing not just among world-beaters like Amazon and UPS, but in Silicon Valley. It is hardly reassuring that an ostensible offset -- a supposed 353,000 jobs created in January  -- came mainly from a sector that produces exactly nothing: government. Permabulls Nervous Small wonder, then, that the stock market's unjustified rise should have begun to worry even permabulls. Like the rest of us, they understand that the revelry has to end sometime, probably sooner rather than later. It is foreseeable that a top in the market will bring these illusory boom times to a halt, pushing the economy --