Apple Computer

The steep selloff that ended the week should continue down to at least D=156.63 before bulls can mount a strong counteroffensive. The pattern associated with the target looks good enough for government work, although only barely because of its 'sausage' point B low. Even so, you can bottom-fish at D if you're able to keep the entry risk down to perhaps 5-7 cents per share using an entry trigger from a chart of minute degree.  I'll provide guidance on request if I'm in the chat room at the time. ______ UPDATE (Apr 26, 11:47 p.m.): AAPL plummeted $10, but sellers didn't crash the 156.83 Hidden Pivot until just after the close. Its decisive breach says considerable weakness remains to be spent. _______UPDATE (Apr 28, 10:10 p.m.): After the wicked goosing DaBoyz gave AAPL on the opening bar, shorts never had a chance. After-hours price action has been so violent, however, that there is little point in prognosticating ahead of Friday's opening.

While it would be lovely to think that the chimpanzees who make their living throwing OPM at AAPL are finally getting their comeuppance, the reality is that they are allowing it to fall in order to reload at lower prices. AAPL being our main bellwether, this is yet another picture of the groundhog seeing his shadow: six more weeks of phony springtime to be endured by permabears. It's possible I could be wrong -- but not likely, given that the selloff of the last two weeks has come from a high that had impaled two very significant 'external' peaks recorded, respectively, on January 12 and February 9.  Most immediately, however, the downtrend targets 158.47, a tradable Hidden Pivot that comes from A=178.49 (hourly chart) on 4/4. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 11:15 p.m.): The weak rally to x=168.07 on the opening triggered a 'mechanical' short, stop 171.27.  No one mentioned having done the trade, but I'll track it anyway since AAPL remains our key bellwether for the stock market as a whole. Here's the chart. ______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 11:18 p.m.): Shorts had no chance when a gap-up opening goosed the stock to 171.53 before it collapsed almost as sharply.

AAPL is still an enticing 'mechanical' buy on a drop to x=158.97, although there are no guarantees that the sleazeballs who control the stock are planning to let it fall that far. A bid at p=167.83 would be riskier, but we may attempt it anyway -- using a 'camouflage' set-up, of course. That would entail dropping down to the 5-minute chart or less to create an entry trigger on an ABCD pattern of small degree, but we'll leave the details for when the stock closely approaches the red line. The 'D' rally target at 185.56 will nonetheless remain viable in any foreseeable case. _____ UPDATE (Apr 12, 12:19 p.m.): Sellers have pulped the midpoint support so badly that there was no blip to trigger us 'long'. The downtrend looks ferocious enough to achieve x=158.97, setting up the 'mechanical' buy noted above. Stay tuned to the chat room and 'Notifications'  for details. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 4:39 p.m.): The downtrend turned to mush, but I doubt there are enough buyers to ignite a rally with staying power.

The stock closed above a key midpoint pivot for the second consecutive week, significantly shortening the odds that the 194.77 rally target will be achieved. It also set up a potentially appealing 'mechanical' buy if AAPL should surprise with a seeming kamikaze dive to the green line, x=161.27. We'll find a way to cut the implied $4500 entry risk if and when the time comes, but for now let's focus on the lesser charts for set-ups that can put us onboard with risk held to a practical minimum. _______ UPDATE (Apr 4, 10:08 p.m.): Buyers have blown past p and D, implying there is every likelihood the stock will hit D=185.56.  The 194.77 target of a larger pattern given above remains valid as well. ______ UPDATE Apr 6, 11:35 p.m.): DaBoyz may let AAPL fall to as low as 158.97 before they pounce on it again. That would set up a no-brainer 'mechanical' buy, although we might attempt it with somewhat more risk at the red line, p=167.83, stop 161.92.  Here's the chart. Stay tuned to the chat room and switch on your 'Notifications' if you care.

The institutional chimps who went all-in on AAPL 13 year ago can scarcely conceal their giddiness at the ease with which short-covering has been propelling the most bloated-pig-of-a-stock in history steeply higher. Last week they pushed AAPL decisively past p=171.94 in the chart shown, significantly shortening the odds that the squeeze will ultimately produce a new all-time high at 193.78. This is a more bullish picture than the one I've proffered for the E-Mini S&Ps, but it is AAPL we should watch, since it is the stock singularly responsible for making portfolio managers look like geniuses and for buttering their bread. A swoon to the green line, however unlikely, should not be regarded as the resumption of a bear market presumed by many to have begun on January 4, but as a fabulous buying opportunity. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 11:17 p.m.): The secondary (p2) pivot at 182.86 shown in the chart (inset) can be used as a minimum rally projection for now. It can also be used to get short with a tight 'camouflage' set-up. _______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 6:27): Today's selloff was another fake. DaBoyz will pull their bids for a day or two, then reload at lower levels.  The only thing to notice is that Wednesday's stab higher blew past p2=176.65 and two daunting 'external' peaks made, respectively, at 176.65 (2/9) and 177.18  (1/12). That is quite bullish.

I offer this view of AAPL to complement the menacingly bullish look of last week's short squeeze in the E-Mini S&Ps.  Together, the two charts cannot fail to tell us whether new all-time highs are coming. Although both need more upside to make this bet and D=172.05 a lock-up, AAPL's thrust through p=161.08 on Friday strongly implies it won't be a problem getting to at least p2=166.50. That will generate a strong enough impulse leg on the daily chart to put permabears' fond vision of global ruin in jeopardy. Trade the stock with a bullish bias for now, but you'll need to tune to the chat room or your email 'Notifications' to exploit this lamb chop with Hidden Pivot voodoo. [Note: I have revised my numbers to accord with the chart. I am not sure what planet my brain was on when I typed the original numbers.] _______ UPDATE (Mar 24, 12:59 a.m.): AAPL spent most of the day diddling the 172.05 target before relapsing in the final hour. It took two months to get there, so we should expect a pullback that lasts for more than just  a few days. Anything less would be quite bullish, but we'll let the stock decide this rather than speculate. ______ UPDATE (Mar 24, 10:40 p.m.): AAPL's take-no-prisoners institutional handlers took all of one day to push the stock past a daunting Hidden Pivot resistance at 172.05, signaling a continuation of the uptrend to at least p2=182.86. I've altered the point 'A' low, slightly lowering the 'D' target to 193.78.

The institutional chimps who are paid to rig this vehicle's ups and downs have become so obvious about it that they've opened themselves up to abuse and insult by pishers like us. On Friday, we guessed correctly that they would open the stock with a poorly supported feint toward 160.  They did, enabling many Rick's Picks subscribers to buy expiring 157.50 puts on the opening for 0.50 that sextupled to 2.97 by the close. Two days earlier, the supposedly all-knowing, all-seeing 'They' pushed distribution shenanigans to the limit with a closing-bell stab at the green line, triggering a 'mechanical' short that would have produced a gain of as much as $9 a share for alert disciples of the Hidden Pivot Method. The stock now appears bound for a minimum 147.57, the 'D' target of the pattern shown, but be alert as always to a possible bounce from the 'secondary' pivot, p2=152.91. That's where we can expect many killer bear-rallies to start in the weeks, months and years ahead. ______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 10:42 p.m.): The bounce from no man's land between p2 and D is now impulsive on the hourly chart, so any trades over the next day or two should go with the flow.  If this team effort makes it to the green line (x=163.58), which I suspect it will, that would trigger a 'mechanical' short similar to one that has worked for us very consistently in the past.  However, if we attempt it, it will be with a risk-controlled entry, camouflage-style, on the lesser charts. Alternatively, if the stock surprises on Wednesday by diving, I would strongly recommend bottom-fishing at 147.57.

The stock narrowly missed triggering a 'mechanical' short last week when it rallied to within an inch of the green line (x) on Thursday. For analytical purposes, however, we'll treat the trade as having filled, since that will preserve a useful pattern for gauging the strength of the downtrend if  AAPL should continue to fall as I expect. The Whoopee Cushion bounce off the Feb 24 low at 152.00 appears to have sputtered out, but if buyers get second wind and push up to the green line again (x=169.59), it can be shorted with a stop-loss at 176.65. (We can cut the risk by 95% with 'camouflage', so stay tuned to the chat room if the trade interests you.) Meanwhile, look for more slippage to at least 155.47, the secondary pivot. ______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 8:04 p.m.): Time for me to mention D=148.41, the downside target shown in the chart.  A rally to the green line (x=169.59) would still make an enticing 'mechanical' short, but we may not be so lucky. 

If the rally hits the green line (x=169.59), it would set up a textbook 'mechanical' short, even though the trade might not feel so appealing at the time. It would come with the stock in the throes of a ballistic ascent fueled by increasingly panicky short-covering. Still, the success rate of 'mechanical' shorts at the green line following a dip into the void between p and p2 has been nothing short of remarkable -- perhaps 80% or more.  Success in this context means the short once initiated would deliver a gain of at least one full Hidden pivot level. With initial risk of about $2800 on four round lots, I'll suggest using a 'camouflage' set-up to trigger the trade. For real-time guidance, tune in to the chat room if and when the stock gets within 1.00 point of the target. ______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 11:40 p.m. EST): If AAPL rallies to the green line, a short there has become less appealing because the stock will have done so following a three-day consolidation above the red line. The trade would still be do-able, but only if you can whittle down risk to a practical minimum with a 'camouflage' trigger. Stay tuned to the chat room and to 'Notifications' if you seek more-nuanced guidance in real time.