Conventional patterns project rally targets that seem too ambitious, so I've settled on an rABC that allows upside over the near term to a relatively modest 158.55. This should be an easy trek, but I would still consider shorting near the target with a 'camouflage' set-up that risks no more than 12 to 20 cents a share initially. A sign that the pattern is working is the winning 'mechanical' buy at the green line. Don't pass up a second opportunity to buy there, stop 129.03, if the stock should unexpectedly revisit it by Wednesday. _______ UPDATE (Jul 18, 18:03): If AAPL is about to reclaim its usefulness as a market bellwether, it should deliver a 'mechanical' winner from the red line (p=143.80). The trade would require a stop-loss at 138.88, but I'd suggest paper trading if you are developing your 'mechanical' chops or just curious to see how well these trades work. _______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 10:22 p.m.): AAPL did in fact lead the way, but with a nasty short squeeze on the opening bar rather than a shakedown. The target at 158.55 is not quite a lock-up, but it is a good enough bet to suggest the broad averages are likely to move higher for the next 2-3 days.
Our favorite stock-market bellwether had a decent week, with a 6% rally sufficiently lacking in excitement to suggest the stock's handlers are quietly planning more of the same. The rally came on the heels of a successful 'mechanical' short from x=143.27 that I had recommended paper trading. The winning pullback did not so much suggest weakness as restfulness, and that's why we should expect the current uptrend to take out C=151.74, even if there's not much follow-through. Indeed, it would be a shocker -- at least for me -- if this bear squeeze makes it to 166.48 peak that I've used as the point 'A' high shown in the chart. _______ UPDATE (Jul 13, 10:01 p.m.): Portfolio managers who have lived effortlessly off AAPL over the years are prepared to move heaven and earth to stop out shorts above C=151.74. They will have their work cut out for them, since iPhone sales have never faced a global downturn remotely as menacing as the one that has already begun.
AAPL has been so quietly boring and disappointing that one could almost forget that it is the most important stock in the world, a true bellwether for...everything. It's on a 'mechanical' short at the moment, triggered last week by a rally to the green line (143.27). It shows no eagerness to do the right thing by falling to D=117.87, but it's going to get there sooner or later. How can it be avoided with sales of the company's overpriced cell phones facing the deepest recession since the 1930s? There is mountainous supply every inch of the way above these levels, so it'll be interesting to see how the stock's evil-genius handlers hold it aloft for distribution. The time-honored tactic in bear markets is not a lengthy slide sideways, but rather a nasty goosing of shorts just when things are quietest. Let's watch to see how they do it. _______ UPDATE (Jul 6, 7:53 p.m.): The ratcheting short-squeeze is how, but there's real supply in the range 147-150 for DaBoyz to choke on, so they have their work cut out for them.
The bear rally has come from a promising place just a hair above the 128.24 midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown. The fact that the last dive did not quite reach its target somewhat shortens the odds that the bounce will take out C=151.74 before it sputters out. Regardless, we should plan on getting short near there, possibly with a 'counterintuitive' set-up on the five-minute chart, since it looks like potentially juicy discomfort-zone play. _______ UPDATE (Jun 29, 6:46 p.m.): The 'mechanical' short that AAPL tripped Monday at x=143.27 looks pretty juicy, but I'll suggest using this intelligence to observe rather than trade. Were this promising set-up to be stopped out by a move above C=151.74, it would suggest DaBoyz have regained control of the FAANGs and are ready to run them up shorts' old wazoo. We needn't wait for the rally to rack up a $15 gain to assess the odds, since lesser abc patterns toward the right edge of the chart will telegraph incipient strength. FYI, the downside target of the bigger pattern, still very bearish, is 117.87.
Get AAPL right and you get the stock market right. I've repeated this adage many times, and it has been borne out consistently. However, it is about to be crucially tested as the stock falls to a compelling midpoint Hidden Pivot support (p) at 128.24. We'll have to see how sellers interact with the support before we can judge whether more downside to D=104.74 is likely. However, the A-B impulse leg on the weekly chart (inset) is sufficiently powerful to suggest bears eventually will win this battle, even if it takes 2-3 months to play out. That would represent a 42% haircut for the most valuable stock in the world, and a deflationary juggernaut for portfolio managers' balance sheets.
AAPL got pounded Friday, but it would take another drubbing to bring it down to the green line at 139.99, where the stock would become an enticing 'mechanical' buy, stop 132.60. There would be no guarantee of a rebound to D=162.12, since the uptrend begun two weeks ago has struggled to get clear of the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, 147.37. I suggest watching from the sidelines for a couple of days, since getting aboard in a place other than the green line would be labor intensive.
AAPL's clever handlers are going to milk every last ounce of potential from this short-squeeze rally, so don't even think about intercepting it until you've made a pile of money on the uptrend. Friday's goosing failed by pennies to impulse above the 'external' peak at 149.77 recorded on May 17, but only because DaBoyz believe they will get more mileage if they complete the job on Sunday night, when sellers are likely to be at their most chicken-hearted. AAPL has been more market follower than leader lately, a sign that fund managers are extremely eager to get this rally rolling even if it lacks some key participants. If the stock catches fire, however, here is a pattern with a 162.12 target you can use to get a tradeable handle on the trend.
Last week's plunge generated an impulse leg of weekly-chart degree, implying that any rally will be merely corrective and an opportunity to restock short positions. The bounce came off a low less than a dollar from the 131.81 target we'd been using to nail the bottom. The pattern in retrospect was far too obvious to have worked as precisely as we've come to expect. Increasingly gnarly ABCD patterns will continue to serve us for trading and forecasting purposes, but it's clear that the whole world is now front-running obvious targets. Looking just ahead, AAPL would need to pop above 141.56 to become impulsively bullish on the hourly chart. ______ UPDATE (May 23, 8:22 p.m.): The stock is headed most immediately for the 145.96 target shown in this chart. There have been no pullbacks sufficient to trigger a 'mechanical buy, but the pattern is gnarly enough to produce profitable results no matter how you use it. ______ UPDATE (May 24, 9:57 p.m.): Buyers failed so miserably to fulfill the promise of the bullish pattern linked above that AAPL could weigh on the market Wednesday. Let's move to the sidelines for now. _______ UPDATE (May 26, 5:56 p.m.): This time it was the stock market dragging a punk-looking AAPL higher rather than the other way around. If the stock gets in gear, the broad averages look primed to soar.
AAPL, the crown jewel of the institutional investment world, has lost more than 20% of its value since January. Last week it signaled still lower lows down the road when it deeply pierced a case-hardened floor of Hidden Pivot support at 146.77. But how far down the road? My hunch is that last week's bounce on Thursday from a bombed-out bottom at 138.80 will prove to be the start of the most powerful short-squeeze since January. As such, and according to design, it will devastate bears who have grown complacent betting against the biggest portfolio managers in the world. The fact that the squeeze began off a bottom on Thursday, giving the stock a running start for a psychotic leap into freaky Friday (the 13th, no less), is evidence that DaBoyz are taking no chances. They do not want this rally to flame out quickly like all the others that nipped at shorts' privates in April. The stock will still need to take quite a leap, to 156.75, merely to generate an impulsive leg on the hourly chart. Expect DaBoyz to succeed at this project -- the earlier in the week the better for them. _______ UPDATE (May 18, 6:34 p.m.): The small dip below the red line has shortened the odds of a further fall to D=131.81 of this pattern. Also, a rally to x=145.27 would trigger a 'mechanical' short, stop 149.76. Check the chat room for for timely guidance, since the appeal of this trade will depend on how and what time of day 'x' is hit.
The bearish, big-picture pattern shown was validated last week by the powerful short-squeeze rally precisely from its D target at 153.00. I did not feature this picture earlier because I was focused on an even bigger one, but I'm somewhat relieved to see that it would not have gotten us short 'mechanically' in any event. That's because the downtrend until this week did not produce any corrective bounces sufficient to trip a short-sale signal. Looking ahead, we can rely confidently on the new pattern, starting at A2, to give us a juicy trading opportunity at D2=146.77. That is where AAPL is going, and I won't queer the usefulness of the target by discussing it any further, including in the chat room. I have not put it in boldface green as I usually do, I have not put a $ sign next to the symbol to indicate this tout is actionable, and I will bury it toward the bottom of the list so that the tout will have a better chance of being "our little secret." Keep in mind something I have repeated here many times: AAPL is the only stock that matters. Get it right, and you get the market right. _______ UPDATE (May 11, 10:54 p.m. EDT): I expect my targets to work very precisely when they are derived from patterns as clear as the one shown in the chart. The so-far 66-cent overshoot of 146.77 has left the stock straddling the bull/bear divide, but my bias is bearish nonetheless and will become moreso if the grifters and pederasts who control AAPL open it on Thursday with a weak short-squeeze. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 10:20 p.m.): Sellers have trashed every 'D' Hidden Pivot, major and minor, leaving only last October's low at 138.27 to break the stock's fall. I aired
