Apple Computer

Portfolio managers' most beloved stock, the 600-pound gorilla of publicly traded companies, met all of our upside objectives last week save one: a thrust to new all-time highs. We'd been looking to short the stock when it approached this threshold -- the 'nifty trick' I'd referred to in the Trading Room. Alas, last week's high at 319.69 fell somewhat shy of January's 327.85 record. AAPL ended the week with two straight days of egregious manipulation by the usual sleazeballs. Specifically, they opened the stock well beneath the previous day's close in order to dry up sellers. This set up a flurry of short-covering on both days, but neither exceeded the previous day's highs. This smacks of distribution, and although it doesn't necessarily portend a collapse in the stock in the days ahead, it does tell us that the aforesaid scumballs were having difficulty rounding up enough suckers to float this hoax to any impressive new height. We'll watch from the sidelines until it becomes apparent whether a new herd of clapping seals is waiting to do the bidding of AAPL's canny masters. ______ UPDATE (May 18, 10:01 p.m. EDT): Perhaps we'll get a chance to short a return to the old highs after all -- not because we'll be trying to nail The Top, but because we can make money regardless of what it does, especially in spots where others fear to  tread. All you newbies watch closely, because, as I promised, this is going to be a nifty little trick.

As always, one need only have focused solely on AAPL, the world's most important stock, to see that bears were not going to romp on Thursday. The stock tried three times in the early going to smash a Hidden Pivot support at 302.03 but finally gave up. Too weary to resist the dip-buying multitudes, bears allowed the stock to escape and romp into the close. Bulls are still not out of the woods, though, since they would need to exceed Wednesday's 315.94 peak to generate some heat. With the running start they got just ahead of the close, however, they'll have the benefit of the doubt as the week ends. The nearest Hidden Pivot above lies at 310.36, but it is not of the finest pedigree, so I am recommending shorting there only to Pivoteers who know their way around 'camouflage' entries.

Buyers had a coronary a millimeter above the 319.43 Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart. It had been three weeks in coming, and we should therefore expect this correction to take at least 3-4 days to run its course. It could turn out to be much worse than that, however -- perhaps even the dropping of the 'second shoe' that we have all dreaded.  If so, expect to see minor abc downtrends start breaching midpoint Hidden Pivot supports and exceeding their 'd' targets. The lesser charts will be a good place as always to assess the trend strength, and to temper our enthusiasm for bottom-fishing merely because we've become habituated to the stock market's nutty buying spree. As the downtrend starts to lengthen, assuming it does, we may be able to trade against the trend with risk under very tight control. Stay tuned. ______ UPDATE (May 13, 9:38 p.m. EDT): Sellers looked pretty feeble on day two of the downtrend, failing to achieve even the p midpoint support (301.79) of the first robust abc pattern (30-min, a=315.95 at 11:00 a.m.). Let's see if they can do better on Thursday, when they'll have a Friday finish line to coax them in the direction of the trend.

It was three weeks ago that Goldman Sachs' best and brightest put the knock on Apple, sending the stock into a 22-point dive that elicited barely a yawn in these precincts. We can be sure they had their reasons, but it is unlikely anyone at Goldman was actually bearish on the stock. More likely is that they wanted to beat it down in order to shake loose a few shares at relative bargain prices. The low of the move was around 265, but it had no effect on a 313 rally target I'd disseminated to subscribers with the stock trading nearly $40 lower.  Rick's Picks stood by this very bullish prediction, however crazy it may have seemed at the time, for technical reasons. Specifically, AAPL had obliterated a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance associated with 313 on the way up. Major and minor targets have changed slightly since, and there is still one at 347.24 if the short-squeeze goes out of control.  More immediately, look for the stock to hit 308.50, or if any higher, 322.86. Both of these Hidden Pivots are shown in the chart. _______ UPDATE (May 11, 4:27 p.m.EDT): Hidden Pivot targets are now beside the point, since a rendezvous with all-time highs near 328 has become the main thought on traders' febrile brains.  Here's a chart, also presented in the update to my commentary, that shows the muscular reverse head-and-shoulders pattern that currently holds sway. As always, we need only get AAPL right to get the stock market right.

My latest commentary tees off on AAPL, reiterating my forecast for an eventual move below $100, but strictly speaking, Friday's price action, nutty as it was, provided no technical basis for predicting that the stock is about to fall apart. It would take a plunge exceeding last Tuesday's 278.20 low to generate a threatening impulse leg on the hourly chart, and although that's hardly inconceivable, we'll let the stock speak for itself before drawing any conclusions. A 'mechanical' buy would trigger at p=285.26, stop 278.65, but I'd suggest spectating just to familiarize yourself with this bold tactic for getting long/short where others fear to tread. _____ UPDATE (May 4, 9:40 p.m.): A deftly engineered plunge on Friday's opening bar exhausted sellers, paving the way for a spectacular 12-point short-squeeze that has left bears off-balance as the new week begins. Monday's action started out with similarly deceptive weakness, just not enough of it to bring the stock down to our infotainment bid at 285.26. The 305.08 target shown in the chart still obtains, but we can use a lesser Hidden Pivot at 302.19 as a minimum upside target for the near term (5-min, A=278.20 on 4/20 at 4:00 p.m.)

With so-so earnings out after Thursday's close, DaBoyz conspicuously failed to goose the stock to the 305.08 rally target sent out to you last night. AAPL fell more than $4 shy of that mark and looked unlikely to try again -- unless the stock's resourceful handlers can scare up a gaggle of short-covering maniacs overnight. Meanwhile, the E-Mini S&Ps similarly failed by a few points to reach a clear Hidden Pivot target. Taken together, these small disappointments suggest that the spectacular short-covering panic of the last five weeks may be sputtering out. Friday will probably provide opportunities to make money trading in either direction, but beware of taking long positions over the weekend if the broad averages close higher without having exceeded Thursday's peaks.

In the Trading Room this morning, a subscriber recalled my certitude recently that AAPL's bear rally would reach a minimum 313.58 before sputtering out. As it happened, the stock swan-dived 8% after going no higher than 288.25. Should I double down on my target? As far as the subscriber was concerned, Goldman Sachs already won the bet: "Rick," he texted, "I'm going to give the point to Goldman." True, the renowned investment firm had presciently waved the yellow flag just ahead of AAPL's fall.  Some would say it was Goldman's warning itself that caused the stock to plunge, and they would be right. That doesn't necessarily mean it won't keep falling. For all we know, Goldman's vaunted analysts have nailed a very important top. But I doubt it, given the fact that the 288.25 high slightly exceeded an 'external' peak at 286.44 recorded a month earlier (see inset). The seemingly failed rally generated a powerful, albeit well camouflaged, impulse leg on the daily chart, implying that the selloff begun Friday is corrective and will eventually give way to a new rally leg. Anyone care to lay me some odds?  Incidentally, my long term forecast for AAPL calls for an eventual drop below $100 -- an outlook far less sanguine than you will find among self-aggrandizing dartboard prognosticators like Goldman who retail stocks to the public, and whose front-run advisories notoriously lag big moves in either direction. ______ UPDATE (Apr 27, 8:59 p.m. EDT): No, you're not imagining it, Apple really does face some big problems, including: 1) shifting assembly out of China; 2) maintaining sales of a high-margin product during a global recession/depression, and 3) competing in a streaming market glutted with competitors. Even so, I'll stick to the bullish targets flagged above. Buyers are struggling with the 285.26 midpoint

The hopeful, decisive pose struck by the President during tonight's briefing has touched off a spirited short-covering rally, powering this dervish past a major Hidden Pivot resistance at 291.45 that I hadn't expected to give way so easily. Actually, I'd planned to get short there, but fortunately the gap-up move in after-hours trading rendered my bold dream impossible. The move has opened a path to p2=313.58, a well-wrought secondary pivot shown in the chart. It will likely be a better place to try shorting than tonight's erstwhile Maginot Line; however, when we are doing so, it would be careless to ignore the magnetic allure of D=347.24. At that price AAPL would be in record territory, as blithely oblivious to the realities of pandemic economics as a tin of sardines. ______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 12:20 .m.):  Goldman's spinmeisters unloaded on AAPL Friday, driving the stock sharply lower. Although the selloff generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart that merits our attention, I still expect a rally to at least 313.58 before a top is in. ______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 12:08): If bulls are about to regain command, we should see AAPL turn from either 275.20 or 272.61. Both of these Hidden Pivot supports are shown in this chart. ______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 9:22 a.m.): Sellers breached 272.61 shortly after dawn and now AAPL will fall to at least 268.38, a target calculated using night bars.  For the moment, however, Buffett and DaBoyz are using bears like a speed bag, sending the stock into a short-covering rally before they let the stock grope its way down to a 'natural' low. Here's the chart, with a 268.82 target that is derived from overnight bars.

AAPL looks like it will need to go lower for a running start to help Buffett and DaBoyz trigger off the next short-squeeze. If so, the 228.11 midpoint support shown in the chart will be an opportunity to try bottom-fishing. The pattern is too gnarly to attract the attention of the rabble, and the red-line support is nicely in the middle of nowhere. Accordingly, we'll look to buy Apr 9 calls for under 1.00 if the stock gets within 0.15 of the target. This may require going as high as the 250 or 252.5 strike.  Keep in mind that the calls will expire Thursday because markets will be closed on Good Friday. ______UPDATE (Apr 6, 9:37 p.m. EDT): Well, we knew all along that Buffett and DaBoyz weren't going to get hosed just because they own hundreds of billions of dollars' worth Apple and iPhone sales are headed for disaster. The way they fist-pumped the stock today through the 259.68 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in this chart, there can be absolutely no doubt it is going to at least 282.45. I am still predicting a plunge to well below $100 before this bear market is over, but Apple shares are going to 282.45 first. _______ UPDATE (Apr 14, 8:04 a.m.): The stock has traded as high as 279.70 overnight, coming within 1% of the well-advertised target. When it reaches 282.45, AAPL will have rallied by exactly a third from the March 23 low of 212.61 and will lie just 13.8% from its all-time high, on Jan 28, of 327.90.  An opportune place, by my runes, for the Masters of the Universe to take the money and run. Please note that I've used a one-off 'A' to project the target, but if it's exceeded by more than 0.15-0.20, that would announce more