AAPL's initial bounce after getting sold hard last Monday looked distributive, but when the stock leveled off to finish the week just below the midpoint of the selloff, it was warning bears not to get too comfortable. I'll need to see a couple more days of price action to determine who are the patsies-- bulls or bears -- but my bias for the moment is with the former, since the stock's swings from Tuesday on failed to generate any bearish impulse legs even on the lowly 15-minute chart. We'll simply observe for now until we get more clarity or perhaps even a fat pitch. _______ UPDATE (Jul 20, 9:43 p.m. EDT): I usually wait until a stock has demolished a midpoint resistance before I signal the all-clear to its corresponding D target, but why wait. Here's a chart that shows a logical path to 424.05, about 8% above these levels, and there's no good reason to think it won't be reached. When it happens, the geniuses who have been riding the move while touting AAPL to their clients will be about $21 billion richer. The only way we will be able to trade the move is via mechanical entries, so stay tuned to the chat room if you care.
The chart show an unachieved rally target at 391.08 that looks very likely to be achieved within a day or two. Last week's gap through the midpoint pivot all but clinched the move, and the consolidation just above it sweetens the odds of a profitable short when AAPL gets there. Since we are jumping in the path of a speeding freight train, you should risk no more on options than you could part with painlessly. I'd recommend buying soon-to-expire puts that are selling for under $1.00. If the target is hit today, the July 17 370 puts should fit our needs. ______ UPDATE (Jul 13, 9:58 p.m.): The early-morning spike 2% above such a clear Hidden Pivot target as 391.08 suggests bulls are not yet finished, but they will struggle mightily to make any headway over the next 3-5 days, if not longer. There's a lot of ruin in an empire, as the saying goes, so don't count out this hoax quite yet. _______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 9:08 p.m.): Bulls struggled, although not mightily as I'd expected. Rising from the canvas after taking what should have been a knockout blow on Monday, they looked jaunty enough to push toward a 399.78, midpoint resistance that would tie the all-time high at $400 recorded just two days ago. ______ UPDATE (Jul 15, 9:52 p.m.): The stock's engineered leap on the opening bar came within spitting distance of the 399.78 target, but it turned into a bull trap when AAPL relapsed $11 over the next two hours. This is distributive behavior, although I stop short of suggesting that leveraging the downside will be easy. My own target price for getting short would be around 398.25, possibly using a 'reverse' ABC pattern. I'm prepared, however, to see the stock get nowhere near this threshold, which is
A 385.48 rally target aired here last week caught the top of today's rally within 21 cents, allowing at least one subscriber to get short at the top. There may have been others with similar reports, but a server problem that persisted for the entire day prevented any discussion of it in the Trading Room. I won't establish a tracking position unless I hear from a few more of you, but you should be aware nonetheless that a thrust above Thursday's high would portend more likely upside to the 398.46 target shown in the chart. The pattern looks too obvious to work with the kind of precision we have come to expect, but it is almost certain to show tradeable stopping power, since it maxes out ABC patterns on the daily chart. Whatever happens, as I never tire of reminding you, as AAPL goes, so goes the stock market (notwithstanding today's anomalous divergence). I will continue to track AAPL closely for that reason, so stay tuned for updates intraday.
AAPL was a rare laggard last week, gaining a mere 3% while the Nasdaq 100 rose 5%. Even so, there is no reason to think it will not lead the next stampede, or that it will fail to achieve the 378.51 target shown in the chart. This is based on a smaller pattern than the one yielding a 385.48 projection we used last week, but it looks more tradeable. Specifically, a pullback to the green line would trigger a 'mechanical' buy at 358.09, stop 351.28, risking a theoretical $2728 on four round lots. We'll look for ways to cut the initial risk by perhaps 70%-80% if the opportunity should arise, but under no circumstances should you treat x=358.09 as a likely place for a bullish reversal. It is not in fact a Hidden Pivot support or resistance, just a reference point for certain types of trades that we do. ______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 8:52 p.m.): AAPL fell more than $6 after coming within a dime of the 378.51 target drum-rolled above. Since no one mentioned this in the chat room, I will assume that trading interest in the stock is nil.
A fall to x=346.37, the green line, would trigger an enticing 'mechanical' buy with a stop-loss at 332.58. The initial, theoretical risk on 200 shares would be almost $2800, so this trade is not for everyone. However, mechanical set-ups have been working consistently in this stock, as anyone who has followed my recent touts may have noticed. I might be able to substitute call options for stock, but please note that the green line should not be used or thought of as a support or a Hidden pivot whence AAPL is likely to bounce, since it is neither. Stay tuned to the Trading Room if you care. Focusing on a much bigger pattern, last week's top an inch from a clear and compelling target at 370.16 is good reason for caution. It could mark the top of AAPL's insane rally, and therefore a possible top in the stock market. The smaller ABCD pattern that had led me to project 385.48 remains sufficiently persuasive nonetheless to keep that target theoretically in play. We'll be better able to weigh the odds once we've seen some downtrending abcd patterns play out. If they easily exceed their 'd targets, it would affirm the bearish outlook. ______ UPDATE (June 29, 9:57 p.m. EDT): The downtrend didn't play out at all, but I don't see the uptrend going anywhere either. ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 12;23 a.m. EDT): A push above last week's record-high 372.38 would make a further run-up to 385.48 an odds-on bet. _______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 9:55 p.m.): The stock has shown poor relative for two days. Although it may need a pullback for a running start into the next leg up, if weakness brings it down to x=358.09 in this chart, that would trigger an appealing 'mechanical' buy at 358.09, stop 351.27.
AAPL, the most owned and institutionally loved stock on this planet or any other, has turned our longstanding rally target at 370.15 into chop suey, telegraphing still-higher prices to come. Specifically, the stock is an odds-on bet to reach D=385.48, at least, given the way short-covering bears shredded the 359.03 midpoint resistance after the close. Even the sleazeballs who work this stock couldn't avoid a pullback from the secondary pivot at 372.26, since, as we know, all vehicles in all times frames, whether moving up or down and irrespective of the news, reverse 100% of the time at p2 (just kidding, sort of). Anyway, we'll look for ways to leverage a bullish bias -- not only in this stock, but in all stocks traded around the world, since AAPL is now carrying them effortlessly higher. _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 7:16 p.m.): Today's hard selloff did not change the odds of AAPL's reaching 385.48. In fact, the weakness tripped a mechanical buy at p=359.03, stop 350.21. I'd suggest paper trading this one, given that the initial risk is almost $900 per round lot. If it works, it will demonstrate yet again how 'mechanical' trades allow us to go against our fears and doubts. _______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 5:51 p.m.): For those of you who are paper-trading this one, or are in the trade with real money, I'll recommend taking off 25% of the position at a current price of 364.60. That will effectively reduce the cost basis of the 300 shares that remain to 357.17. Offer an addition round lot to close at 366.70.
AAPL stalled in a precarious place Friday en route to what had looked like a high-probability rally target at 370.19. Actually, the stall occurred well shy of a lesser target at 363.34 shown in the chart. It too was 'high-probability, given the gap through the midpoint resistance on Friday. Both patterns remains viable, but the stock's canny handlers will need to exercise care trying to re-inflate the stock, since the bad news on the company -- 11 stores shut down again due to Covid-19 outbreaks -- is not something easily shrugged off. Regardless of how things play out, we'll continue to treat AAPL as the stock most capable of leading the world's stocks markets in either direction or even sideways.
The 336.22 target I sent out Sunday night nailed the start of AAPL's maniacal, $12 bounce on Monday within 36 cents, telegraphing the correspondingly wild-eyed bounce that occurred in the Nasdaq 100 and the broad averages. It also caught the exact low of the gap-down, opening-bar plunge orchestrated by the stock's inventively sleazy handlers. Let me repeat this for the benefit of new subscribers: Get AAPL exactly right and you won't have to guess about exactly where the stock market is headed. The pattern shown suggests that Apple shares are all but certain to hit the 370.19 target. When they do, this important Hidden Pivot is so clear and compelling that it is bound to be short-able. Look for the pivot to act like granite the first time the lunatic brigade encounters it. I haven't made the target publicly viewable, nor should you tell your friends about it. Your trading bias should stay bullish until it is reached, since 370.19 is also our minimum upside objective. If you've made $2000 or more when we get there, short the bejeezus out of 'D' with a stop-loss that risks half of it. ______ UPDATE (Jun 17, 9:06 p.m. EDT): Careful! The 370.19 target may have to wait, since AAPL's handlers appear to be distributing stock ahead of a shakedown. Its purpose would be to steal stock from widows and pensioners at relative fire-sale prices. If the move creates any special opportunities while I'm in the trading room, I will let you know.
The 354.47 rally target sent out last week ahead of a powerful rally enabled subscribers to get short just 30 cents from the top of Thursday's hellish plunge. Several of you reported using put options, but I will track the remainder of the position using stock. Profit taking intervals advised in the chat room were at 348.50 and 340.41, leaving a hundred shares short with an effective cost basis of 380.47. The implied gain on paper works out to $4457 at a current price of 335.90. For now, use a stop-loss of 351.07, but check back toward the end of the day for a possible update ahead of the weekend. _______ UPDATE (June 14, 10:20 p.m.): My immediate downside target is 332.22 (30-min, a=351.06 on 6/11). Bid 332.70 to cover the remaining 100 shares (or last 25% of the of the original position), but also bring the stop-loss down to 342.74 if AAPL trades below 336.22.
AAPL's performance on Friday left no doubt about where it is headed. The gap through the 327.34 midpoint Hidden Pivot has put the stock on course for a run-up to D=354.47. This implies the broad averages will be moving higher too (and gold probably lower), since AAPL is the most popular must-own stock since man has walked the Earth. Jumping aboard a speeding freight train is never going to be easy, but we can look for opportunities intraday with the potential to let us in with risk well controlled. Stay tune to the Trading Room if you're interested. Options will not likely be the way to go because 'implieds' are on the moon, but you can trade odd lots of 2 to 4 shares if you prefer. ______ UPDATE (June 10, 10:04 p.m. EDT): The 354.47 target that I'd all but guaranteed (see above) caught the top of a $21 spike within 30 cents. No one reported making use of this Hidden Pivot in the Trading Room, but if you did please let me know so that I can establish a tracking position. ______ UPDATE (June 11, 7:01 a.m.): Some subscribers evidently did use the target to get short at the exact top, so I am establishing a tracking position: We are short 400 shares from 354.47. Use a break-even stop for now on all of it, worked o-c-o with a bid at 350.80 to cover half. If it's filled we'll keep at least 25% of the position for a potential home run. Don't underestimate the ability of this stock to cripple, maim and defenestrate bears, since the smartest money in the world is in it up to their eyeballs. _______ UPDATE (7:23 a.m.) I just realized that Apple was trading near 348 when I posted the recommendation to cover
