Apple Computer

A rally target at 201.99 (see inset) is the end of the line on the daily chart. Although this Hidden Pivot resistance could eventually give way to targets as high as 271.39 on the weekly chart, we should be surprised if AAPL blows past this number without head butting it at least a few times. While none of the problems the company faced just a a few months ago have gone away or even diminished, this evidently hasn't discouraged investors from bidding the stock into a vertical parabola that has recouped 60% of the massive losses suffered in Q4. Investors are known to have short memories, and their forgetfulness has been abetted by a news media that seems always willing to feign amnesia when bullish market cycles demand it. So it is with Apple, and our trading bias should therefore be bullish at least until 201.99 is reached (or an alternative target at 205.25 that uses a higher B-C pairing). _______ UPDATE (Mar 24, 5:03 p.m.): As the week ended, the stock fell hard without having quite reached our 201.99 target. It's still in play, however, since, as you can see, Friday's losses did not much impact the impulsive bullishness of the daily chart.  For now, we'll put the target on hold while we monitor this pullback for more-persuasive signs of trouble. The first meaningful hint of it would come on a print below 187.87. _______ UPDATE (Mar 25, 10:41 p.m.): Sellers crushed the 187.87 'structural' support of a prior low, opening a path to D=181.72. Let's see if they have the moxie to get there. If they can close the stock beneath the red line on this chart, consider the target an odds-on bet to be achieved. _______UPDATE (Mar 26, 9:25 p.m.):  The stock has turned wacky, diving after opening

Buyers blew past a 'midpoint Hidden Pivot' near 179 Tuesday, leaving no doubt about their ability to push the stock to at least 190.33 in the days ahead (or 192.99 if any higher). It seems like only yesterday that AAPL was mucking around as analysts wrung their hands over sluggish iPhone sales in Asia. These days, however, a CEO need only say the company plans to do better and the shares rocket 20% in a couple of weeks, propelled by short-covering, hubris and some cheerleading from the usual places. We're not sure whether the Cupertino giant has regained its spot as the most valuable publicly traded company in the world, but the steep pitch of the rally is most surely having its effect on the broad averages and the FAANGs in particular. They seem not only inured to bad news, but are rising exuberantly on earnings expectations that would have seemed far too optimistic just a few weeks ago. It is all hype, of course, but there's no gain in fighting the tape. Traders please note that a pullback to 173.90 from current levels, however unlikely, would trigger a 'mechanical' buy signal.

Friday's gratuitous swoon did not significantly change the perception that AAPL is headed for the 189.88 target shown in the chart (click on inset). In fact, if the pullback had come from our sweet spot between p and p2 (respectively, the red and pink lines), I'd have suggested a mechanical bid at 173.79 on Thursday.  As things stand, although the initial pullback may have discouraged some bulls, my hunch is that it simply shook them out. If so, the stock's next upthrust will not have their profit-taking urge impeding its progress. A close above the green line would undo whatever misgivings we might have about boarding the bullish bandwagon. For now, though, we'll simply wait and watch. _______ UPDATE (Mar 11, 9.40 p.m.): Today's powerful, gap-up rally stalled three cents from the 179.15 midpoint resistance shown in the chart (click on inset), confirming the pattern and its 189.88 target. As always, a decisive move through p will make the target an odds-on bet to be reached. Here's a new chart that shows it all.

Buyers slogged through a tedious week, providing just enough buoyancy to generate a small gain for the week. They also will have helped the broad averages stay aloft, since this stock remains a key market bellwether. The 178.06 target still looks like a shoe-in to be reached, although it has taken far more time to get there than we could have imagined three weeks ago when it was signaled. Because the time-symmetry of the pattern is so distorted, I'll recommend taking a small short position when AAPL hits our objective. Which series and strike we use will depend on when the target is hit. _______ UPDATE (Mar 4, 6:29 p.m .): An opening-bar gap topped at 177.75, just 31 cents from our longstanding target. Considering that it took more than a month for the stock to get there, we should expect it to rest for perhaps 3-5 days before embarking on a new bull leg if it does. However, a quick pop past 178.06 would refresh the bullish energy of the hourly chart, especially if AAPL closes above that number for two consecutive days.

AAPL, not long ago the one true love of fund managers, has been a conspicuous laggard since the broad averages trampolined off December's lows. It is only in retrospect that we can see how they might have contrived, albeit with only modest success, to ignore the stock's big problem, which is that the company's ridiculously overpriced phones are poorly positioned to compete against increasingly aggressive Asian manufacturers. Factor in a U.S. economic slowdown that has lengthened iPhone's replacement cycle, and you begin to see why AAPL is unlikely to lead the stock market to new record highs. It could still be a good go-along bet, though, in which case I'd suggest using 187.74 as a minimum upside target for the near term. That would represent a 50% retracement of the slide from a record $233 in October to a bear market low of $142 early in 2019. A rally to 187 presumably would give way to another leg down, since the Q4 plunge created an impulse leg on the weekly chart that demands an eventual follow-through leg. If and when the other shoe drops, we'll have a 'midpoint Hidden Pivot' along the C-D leg to tell us exactly what's on traders' minds. For now, though, despite the stock's heaviness, a bullish bias is warranted.______ UPDATE (Feb 20, 10:39 p.m.): AAPL stalled precisely at the 173.24 Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown, validating not only the pattern but its 178.06 target. It will become a very good bet to be reached if and when the stock blows past 'p'. This matters a great deal, since it could not but energize the broad averages in their quest to turn what is still a garden variety bear rally into a push toward new all-time highs. Considering the recent shakeup at the company

Buyers shut down to save energy as the week ended, but not before they'd muscled past a supply zone created in mid-December on the way down (see inset). Expect them to return in force once the news environment turns favorable again toward a wafting rally.  AAPL is being deftly manipulated higher on short-covering, but the news cycle is crucial to the effort. Under the circumstances, we might expect AAPL and the broad averages to go nowhere on Monday, usually a non-news day; then to start rising again when some pseudo-'real' news begins to dribble out on Tuesday. AAPL has the potential to hit 178.00 on the next burst, but  it will need to push above the 184.94 peak recorded on December 3 to fool the herd into thinking new all-time highs are actually possible. _______ UPDATE (Feb 13, 5:13 p.m.): AAPL feels leaden, the moreso because the dirtballs who manipulate it for a living opened it on the high of the day, making fools of buyers. They will remember this, at least for a short while, adding an extra layer of supply the next time DaBoyz attempt to goose the stock._______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 5:34): Zzzzzzz. AAPL went nowhere -- including down, which I read as slightly bullish. _______ UPDATE (Feb 25, 6.09 p.m.): The stock's canny handlers gapped it past the 173.24 midpoint pivot of the pattern projecting to 178.06, making a run-up to that number practically a sure thing.

Like many of you, I've been eagerly awaiting the day when this powerful bear rally drops dead. Instead, AAPL has rallied with a vengeance, drawing a thousand doomed stocks into its vortex. Yes, the rally is a hoax. And yes, the Masters of the Universe have used it to distribute as much stock as possible into the hands of rubes, pensioners and widows. Under the circumstances, I've been a reluctant bull all the way up, duty bound to follow the mechanical logic of my charts. However, the effort has worn me out, and that's why I've selected the thumbnail chart today that I did (click on inset). It gives me the wherewithal to say that maybe, just maybe, the insidious promoters of the Big Bounce have breathed their last. That Ominous Cough? This is a logical inference, given that the E-Mini S&Ps have begun to roll down from a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2732 where buyers were likely to cough ominously, if cough they have. The pattern itself is unfortunately not of the highest quality, and so I am prepared to see stocks come roaring back next week -- led, of course, by AAPL, whose iPhone troubles have suspiciously melted away in recent weeks. If that is what happens, I hope you will pardon this digression. Think of it as a fleeting moment of sanity in a crazy world.

AAPL looked quite impressive last week. Buyers pushed above a shelf-like 'external' peak from mid-December, refreshing the bullish energy of the hourly chart. And now, how high would the stock have to go to make this short squeeze look capable of achieving new all-time highs above $233? My gut feeling is that it would take a push exceeding the 184.94 peak shown (see inset) to do the trick. That would plant a seed of fatalism in the minds of bears, your editor among them, who expect the rally to fizzle out any day now. I won't pretend to have a crystal ball, and can only suggesting monitoring AAPL's progress, or perhaps lack of it, relative to the peaks shown in the chart. _______ UPDATE (Feb 7, 10:45 p.m. ET): The stock rolled down hard after a rally in the first hour failed to exceed any prior peaks. The weakness would not threaten the still-bullish look of the hourly chart, however, unless it takes the 165.93 low recorded on Feb 1..

AAPL remains a key stock-market bellwether even if it has acted weaker than most of the other institutional favorites since the bull market ended in early October. As such, we should on the alert for the unexpected -- in this case an upthrust exceeding the two external peaks shown. I mentioned the higher of the two (162.11) here earlier, suggesting that you treat with skepticism any rally failing to exceed it. I'm certainly not expecting this, but that's all the more reason to be prepared for it, since it could be telegraphing the start of a strong rally in the broad averages. I've set a chart alert there, and so should you. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:23 p.m.): Exactly as we'd anticipated, the stock has exploded in after-hours trading, on the non-news that earnings have "stabilized."  The so far high at 164.85 easily exceeded my bullish benchmark. Now let's see how far DaBoyz can take this hoax. ________ UPDATE (Jan 30, 7:01 p.m.): The hoax sputtered out, at least for the time being, at 166.15. It's time to move the goal posts again on bulls, the better to determine whether they are willing to put their money where their mouths are. This chart benchmarks a small 'external' peak at 168.35 as the one to beat. ______ UPDATE (Jan 31, 5:35 p.m.): A round of applause for DaBoyz, who managed to push this cinder block to 169.00 today, putting bears who remain short in real jeopardy. The mood has changed, and this could be the best chance AAPL's institutional sponsors will have in 2019 to fool buyers into thinking the stock is going somewhere. We'll sit back and enjoy the show wherever it goes, taking positions on either side of the market when the odds look juicy.