We've been using a 243.68 target in this stock to stay unemotionally on the right side of a mature bull market that only bears caught in the ringer are buying aggressively any more. AAPL is the key bellwether to watch, and that's why getting it right is so important. My confidence that the target will be reached is based on the way the stock plowed through the midpoint pivot at 218.13 the first time it hit it. Even so, the pink line in the chart shows a secondary pivot at 230.91 that should be monitored diligently, since it is a logical place for a stall or worse. Today's high missed it by $1 -- close enough to infer that bulls may have had it for the time being. If AAPL feints to 230.91 over the next day or two, you can buy close-dated puts. Risk no more than you would on a bunch of scratch-off tickets, since the odds are not heavily in our favor. ______ UPDATE (Oct 23, 10:45 p.m.): I'm somewhat relieved that AAPL has exceeded 243.68 at a time of day when we cannot hurt ourselves with put options that would be under attack if this were happening during regular hours. Let's take the stock's measure after the opening, since there may be a less risky opportunity then. I would still be very surprised if AAPL does not peak within $2 of the target. So far tonight it has traded as high as 244.25.
Judging from the way AAPL gapped through the 217.63 'hidden' resistance shown in the chart, the stock seems all but certain to achieve a 242.48 rally target derived from the same pattern. This implies the broad averages are about to move sharply higher as well and that any ideas we might have harbored about stockpiling put options should be put on hold, at least for the time being. The rally would equate to a gain of about 8.5% in the value of Apple shares. If the Dow were to move up only half as strongly, it would be sitting at 28,290, exactly 1153 points above current levels. The bullish technical picture is at odds with data suggesting the global economy is slipping into a recession or worse. Housing and autos have peaked in the U.S., and so, probably, have corporate earnings. To make matters worse, share buybacks have tapered off as surplus funds repatriated to the U.S. under Trump's favorable tax rules have dried up. It is natural to want to load up on puts under the circumstances. However, given Apple's bellwether status, the chart is telling stock-market bears to be patient. Hold Off on Bullion And gold bulls as well. A resurgent bull market is certain to put bullion and mining shares under pressure, interrupting the powerful rally begun late in May. They have held up well so far and on Tuesday even gained some ground with the Dow up 227 points. This is a very bullish sign, and it provide reason to think the precious metals sector will hang tough if there's a blowoff coming in the stock market. However, if you plan to buy bullion aggressively, you may get better prices by waiting for 2-3 weeks. ______ UPDATE (Sep 17, 6:17 p.m.): My immediate outlook is still
We have a sequence of rally targets at 205.51, 209.18 and 216.08 to keep us in stride with the bullish herd, but there's an alternative picture that deserves caution. Notice that AAPL has rallied back to the green line after falling beneath the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 174.20, producing a valid signal to get short 'mechanically' at 194.75 (stop 215.31). The signal is weak, however, because the dip to around 170 did not quite get down to our sweet spot near 164, and that's why I am not recommending the trade. Regardless, the signal itself is reason not to get too comfortable with the idea that a push toward 2018's record high at 233 is inevitable. _______ UPDATE (Jul 8, 3:44 p.m. ET): Friday's 205.08 high came within a millimeter of the first of our three targets, 205.51, so consider it fulfilled. AAPL underscored the accuracy and importance of the target by plummeting $7 since. _______ UPDATE (Jul 22, 6:30 p.m.): A short-squeeze popped the stock above a tedious accumulation range, and it should now be presumed bound for at least 209.18, the second target in the sequence identified here more than three weeks ago. Keep in mind the each can be used to initiate a tightly stopped short. _______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 10:38 p.m.): DaBoyz have outdone themselves tonight, goosing the stock senseless with a short squeeze that has easily surpassed an otherwise impenetrable peak at 215.31 made on May 1. Give them lots of credit, since this is a task that mere bulls could never have accomplished, and it has cleared the path to eventual new-record highs.
The rally has reached the mezzanine level (p=193.18) after tripping a 'counterintuitive' buy signal at 181.72 on June 5. Progress above p has been weak so far, suggesting that a possible climb to the 216.08 target won't be easy. However, my gut feeling is that bulls will get there, even if most of the fuel for the climb will be provided as usual by short-covering bears. A pullback to the green line would offer us a belated opportunity to get long 'mechanically,' although the trade would look more enticing if the retracement comes from slightly nearer 200. _______ UPDATE (Jun 19, 10:16 p.m.): The stock hit 200.29 today, fulfilling the first of two conditions needed to set up a mechanical buy at 181.72. _____ UPDATE (Jun 20, 11:28 p.m.): Ignore the 'mechanical' trade outlined above, since it's just a distraction at this point. The stock is bound most immediately for 205.51, a Hidden Pivot rally target shown in this chart. _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 9:42 p.m.): If 205.51 is easily exceeded, use 209.12; and thence, 216.08.
On a take-no-prisoners rampage, the stock has bounced 12% since bottoming a week ago. This tripped a 'counterintuitive' buy signal at 181.72 that implies more upside to at least 193.18, the midpoint Hidden Pivot (see inset). However, AAPL would become a tempting 'counterintuitive' short if it falls exactly 5.55 points from any peak occurring between Friday's 191.92 high and around 192.70. That means the signal to get short would trigger at 186.37 if AAPL goes no higher than 191.92. Tune to the chat room for guidance in real time on put spreads that could effectively leverage a sharp relapse in the stock._______ UPDATE (Jun 10, 8:57 p.m.): AAPL easily achieved the 193.18 target given above. However, if the stock closes toward the lower end of its range on Tuesday, that could generate a stochastic sell signal. Even if not, the short squeeze has gotten very overbought on the daily chart. _______ UPDATE (June 11, 5:43 p.m.): The stock looked no worse than neutral at the bell, although a close Wednesday at the lower end of its range would still tip the daily chart bearish. _______ UPDATE (Jun 12, 11:08 p.m.): The stock is doing a Wile E. Coyote, hovering over an abyss without visible support. We'll step away for the time being, since there is no percentage in guessing here.
A 175.48 Hidden Pivot support that we've used as a minimum downside objective has kept us comfortably on the right side of a lengthening bearish trend. However, the hourly chart (inset) suggests that the damage could grow as sellers do the bidding of a succession of higher points 'A' that project to as low as 162.06. An upthrust exceeding 192.47, the point 'C' high of the pattern, would invalidate the series of descending targets, but we'll retain our bearish bias until such time as that occurs.________ UPDATE (May 31, 8:43 a.m.): The stock has fallen overnight to within 33 cents of the 175.48 target. Please refer to the chart accompanying the tout for the sequence of lower targets yet to come. ________ UPDATE (May 31, 5:28 p.m.): Next stop on the way down: 171.82 (see inset). _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 7:09 p.m.): Target achieved. The next lies at 168.32. _______ UPDATE (June 4, 5:44 p.m.): The short squeeze projects to 182.06, or 186.20 if any higher (60-min, a= 171.47 on 6/3); however, it would take a print at 192.47 to invalidate the series of bearish targets shown in the original chart.
A 10% fall over the last seven days has generated some bearish impulse legs on the lesser charts without doing much damage to the much larger uptrend begun on January 3. Even so, because Apple has nothing new in the pipeline as profitable as iPhone sales, which have been weakening, we'll want to make sure that bulls prove their case each step of the way before we buy into it. For now, that would mean a thrust exceeding the green line (click in inset). It would trip a theoretical buy signal for a shot at 233.50, but more immediately to the 208.14 midpoint pivot of the pattern. Keep in mind that neither of these Hidden Pivots nor their targets will even exist until AAPL reaches 200.45. _______ UPDATE (May 13, 11:16 a.m. ET): AAPL's plunge today has put a 179.48 target in play. Judging from the way sellers crushed the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 189.02, I'd rate the target an 80% bet to be reached._______ UPDATE (May 14, 4:11 p.m.): A small rally has changed nothing. Set an alert at 198.56, since that's where it would become technically meaningful. ______ UPDATE (May 19, 10:29 p.m.): DaBoyz are having trouble propping up the stock. If it slips below 185.54, use D=178.61 as a minimum downside target. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (May 23, 11:41 p.m.): AAPL fell to our 178.31 target as expected, then struggled for the rest of the session to hold above it. Next stop on the way down: 175.48. (30-min, A= 201.68 on 5/9).
Surprise, surprise. AAPL has miraculously popped to 213.00 this evening, exceeding by 13 cents a 212.77 target first noted here weeks ago. This Hidden Pivot has been in play since April 1, when the stock was trading for around 190. Like virtually all significant rallies in the stock, and in most others, the move was driven almost entirely by short covering on volume-less, after-hours trading. Panicky, dim-witted bears are the best thing AAPL's institutional handlers have going for them, accomplishing in mere minutes what mere bullish buying could not have accomplished in months. The wilding spree of the last seven weeks has also helped to obliterate any concerns about iPhone's pronounced sales slowdown in the U.S. and in China, Apple's second largest market. Nor do investors seem concerned that the company's answer to weakening sales is to plunge deeper into the hyper-competitive entertainment world with streaming content. Profit margins from this business are unlikely to equal those achieved selling overpriced iPhones -- but again, who cares? We'll back away from the stock for now, since the put options we might have bought if the stock had reached the target during regular business hours won't begin to trade until morning, when the surprise has worn off. _______ UPDATE (May 1, 9:40 p.m.): Today's thrust above an 'external peak at 210 recorded last November has created yet another impulse leg, refreshing the bullish energy of the daily chart. This implies that any pullback of less than $25 should be seen as corrective and thus a buying opportunity for a shot at new record highs. _______UPDATE (May 8, 8:49 p.m.): AAPL looks bound for 197.12, a target shown in this chart. It is appealing despite the lack of a true impulse leg. Please note that a print slightly below the target, at 196.20,
The 212.77 rally target shown in today's chart should be familiar, since it has been in play for nearly a month. AAPL's ascent has been too steep to trip any 'mechanical' buy signals, but if it should pull back to p=198.68, we'll consider putting an 'old-style' bid there, stop 193.98. Stay tuned to the trading room for guidance in real time if the stock gets close to the fed line intraday. Regardless of whether there's a pullback, we'll want to stake out a spec short position if and when D is hit.
We've been using Hidden Pivot supports at, respectively, 205.72 and 212.77 as minimum rally targets, but I've shifted the perspective for today in order to suggest a bottom-fishing gambit. Specifically, I'll recommend bottom-fishing p=197.14 by using a 197.17 bid, stop 197.07. If you substitute near- or slightly out-of-the-money call options, give yourself a little more leeway on the stop-loss, but make sure you've got one in place. ______ UPDATE (Apr 15, 10:07 p.m.): A bull-trap spike on the opening bar negated the trade suggested above, but the rally targets at 205.72, and thence 212.77, remain viable. _______ UPDATE (Apr 25, 9:59 p.m.): Sellers cracked a minor midpoint support at 205.34, implying that AAPL will now fall to at least d=203.91 in search of traction. Notice that this is a penny higher than Tuesday's low, which could serve as a point 'A' for a counterintuitive buy. We can track it in the chat room if it triggers, so stay tuned if you're interested. _____ UPDATE (Apr 28, 12:03 a.m.): Sellers trashed the 203.91 'hidden' support flagged above, opening a path over the near term to as low as 200.35. Here's the chart, which shows a secondary pivot at 202.68 where we might look for a bounce. If 200.35 fails as support, use 199.18, which looks well suited for bottom-fishing.
