Apple Computer

The 314.28 target drum-rolled here earlier looks like a logical spot for the rally to fail. However, if buyers should exceed it intraday by more than 0.30 or so -- or better yet, close above it -- use the 319.92 target shown in the monthly chart (inset) as a minimum price objective. Both of these hidden Pivot resistances are sufficiently clear and compelling that I'll be surprised if AAPL ignores them. A small speculative position in sub-$1 puts with 7-12 days left on them would be appropriate at either number, but don't risk more than you can afford to lose painlessly. If they double in value, cash out half and save the rest. _______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 2:36 p.m. EST):  With a high so far today at 314.90, AAPL has traded sufficiently above the 314.28 target that I'm shifting my focus -- and the possibility of getting short -- to the 319.92 target.  [Late-breaking note: AAPL eventually traded as high as 317.07. Plan B remains viable.] _______ UPDATE (Jan 14, 9:59 p.m.): The stock climbed to 318.80 overnight but fell too sharply by the opening to allow us to squeeze off a shot. The off-hours high may turn out to have been the important top we'd anticipated, but since the trade was nearly impossible to have executed satisfactorily, I am not establishing a tracking position.

We continue to focus on AAPL's short-to-intermediate-term prospects, since, as long as it is headed higher, the broad averages will be moving in the same direction.  It is the most popular stock in the world right now, and all of the "experts" seem quite certain that it is going to the moon in 2020.  These geniuses will get no argument from me, since even the most daunting Hidden Pivot resistances have failed to slow the stock down for more than a day or two. At the moment, having chomped through granite around $294, AAPL looks bound for the 314.28 target shown. The midpoint pivot at 299.75 is all but guaranteed to effect tradeable resistance, but don't expect it to last for long. _______ UPDATE (Jan 2, 1:20 p.m. EST): The trade-desk chimpanzees are out in force today, kicking off the New Year with the only trick they know: buying AAPL hand-over-fist. How courageous! The stock's stall at exactly p=298.50 implies that this pattern, with a 311.77 target, is the one to use to trade this lunatic-powered gas-bag. Earlier, I'd suggested calendar spreading the 315 strike, and that's still not a bad way to go. If anyone puts up an rABC in the Trading Room to get aboard, I'd be happy to vet it. _______ UPDATE (Jan 2, 6:42 p.m.): Check my 14:10 post in the Trading Room for details of a butterfly spread I've recommended. ______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 10:09 p.m.): AAPL has opened firm Sunday night, barely dipping beneath Friday's closing price so far. Even so, we should expect DaBoyz to take the stock down at least a point or two, since they have a good opportunity to buy it at a discount. I'll post a new strategy for playing a rally to 311.97 when the stock appears to

The chart refreshes an old rally target, a major Hidden Pivot at 283.97 that we've been using to stay unemotionally on the right side of the trend since last spring. The target still looks likely to be reached, presumably before Christmas. With Aramco hitting $2 trillion following its recent IPO, AAPL became the world's second most valuable company.  Even so, it remains the most important bull-market bellwether, since no portfolio manager can be without it and because the company can do no wrong in their eyes. But I'd be very surprised if it spears the target on the first try, since this Hidden Pivot is so clear and compelling. We'll plan on getting short if and when the stock gets there, but if it happens later in the week than a Tuesday, options expiring the following week will be the play.  Buy the first put strike at which the options are trading for less than 1.00. _______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 8:35 p.m. EST): Just one more inch! Bid 0.30 for eight Jan 3 265 puts, day order, but only if the stock has not traded above 284.15. Be prepared to lose it all, since this is a very speculative bet that seeks to precisely intercept a steep rally. ______ UPDATE (Dec 18, 11:04 p.m.): Leave the bid in for another day, but don't pay up. _______ UPDATE (Dec 22): If at least two subscribers report buying puts when AAPL topped on Friday at 283.54, I'll establish a tracking position. Meanwhile, if the stock goes any higher without a correction, it would shock me. _______ UPDATE (Dec 23, 6:12 p.m.):  The stock has hung up at the target, creating uncertainty no matter how you've decided to play it. The puts traded within a penny of the 0.30 bid I'd suggested, so

AAPL remains an excellent proxy for the bull market, so perhaps it’s a good time to look at its intraday charts, the better to judge whether December’s shaky start portends more trouble. My gut feeling is that the weakness will pass, if it hasn’t already, and that both the stock and the broad averages will soon be banging out new record highs. This scenario will become more likely if AAPL blows past the 266.11 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart to end the week. That would put it on track for a shot at D=269.55 next week, and, presumably, generate corresponding strength in the broad averages. A rendezvous with D could provide us with more information, but I expect sufficient resistance there to set up a potential ‘reverse-ABC’ short. Stay tuned to the Trading Room for timely guidance. _______ UPDATE (Dec 6, 1:49 p.m. EST): Short-covering at the opening sent AAPL into a lunatic spasm that not only demolished the 266.11 midpoint resistance, but continued higher, eventually reaching and then surpassing the 269.55 target. When it did, I put out a new target at 270.94 (“not rocket science”) in the Trading Room that appears to have stopped the rally cold.  AAPL has since fallen $1.04 (!) after peaking at 271.00, six cents above my target.  _______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 5:10 p.m.): We still hold eight 280 calls with a cost basis of 0.16 that expire on Friday. Offer half of them to close for 0.62, good through Tuesday. _______ UPDATE (Dec 11, 11:14 p.m.):  The uptrend has been steady but not steep enough to revive our calls. We'll play the hand we've got rather than speculate on more expiring options.  Use 274.18 (60-min,  A=261.74 on 12/4)  for a target -- not quite enough to make 272.50 calls @ 1.00

We hold eight Dec 13 280 calls with a cost basis of 0.28. We bought them anticipating a rally to a 283.97 Hidden Pivot target that has been solidly in play since March, when the stock was trading $90 lower. The target has served not only to guide us in trading AAPL, but to keep us properly bullish as the broad averages seemingly defied both common sense and gravity.  When we bought the calls our goal was to cover their cost 100% by rolling the 280 calendar spread on three successive Fridays. With the stock strongly on the rise, I'll suggest an alternative strategy to simplify things: Offer four Dec 6 280 calls short for 0.55, good through Wednesday. If the order fills we'll own the Dec 13 280 calls effectively for nothing. It would also give us a backspread position that would make us longer as AAPL rises. ______ UPDATE (Nov 26, 7:55 p.m.): I just noticed that AAPL triggered an rABC short last week. We're a little late to the party, but I'd hate to let an opportunity go to waste. Accordingly, I'll recommend bidding 0.31, day order,  for two Dec 6 250 puts. This is a speculative bet and will not affect our call strategy. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30):  We hold two Dec 6 250 puts for 0.31 and eight Dec 13 280 calls for 0.28. For now, offer four of the calls to close for 0.48, good through Tuesday. Check for updates before and after Monday's opening in case AAPL moves significantly. _______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 9:34 p.m.): Our strangle position is inadvertent, but even so, I'd be surprised if this stock fails to put either end of it in play. For now, do nothing. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 8:52 a.m.): Offer the puts to close

A major rally target at 283.97 has  served us well as a bullish lodestone, but it looks as though AAPL is about to take a detour. The target will remain valid as long as the stock doesn't plunge below 142.00 (!), but more immediately sellers appear eager to push AAPL to the 257.23 target shown. We should plan to leverage a tradeable bounce from that Hidden Pivot, but as always, if so compelling a support is easily breached, that would spell more trouble for bulls. Because AAPL is the key bellwether for the bull market, this is an important concern. We need to get this one right, and that means, for starters, no longer insisting that the stock absolutely, positively, must achieve 283.97 before the fat lady sings. If buyers had popped it past p=212.99 on the first try, things would be different. But they didn't, and even a second try on August 8 succumbed to gravity, requiring a running start for a third attempt that finally succeeded. This hesitation should put us on our guard, ready to accept any technical evidence that suggests the record high at 268.00 recorded last week will stand for a long time.

The glue-sniffers are loosely in command, driving AAPL toward a 283.97 target that has kept us from getting too bearish on the stock market.  We've used the target as a lodestone, confident that AAPL would eventually get there. And it will, perhaps sooner than we might have imagine ind after its canny handlers let it fall nearly 40% a year ago, temporarily crushing expectations .  There  were a dozen good reasons to dump the stock at the time, or so it seemed.  Apple's move into streaming content, for one. The  sector is getting very crowded, and Netflix may have upped the ante for creative talent to a level where even they won't be able to turn a profit. There are other factors working against Apple as well. The iPhone replacement cycle has lengthened because there have been fewer revolutionary changes from one model to the next. Also, competitors such as Huawei are offering comparable smartphones at significantly lower prices. Despite these negatives and many others, the stock looks hellbent on 283.97, at least.  The target is very likely to produce a tradeable pullback, which would imply that the broad averages will be falling in sympathy. For now, to leverage what remains of the uptrend, and to cushion our risk when we get short, I'll recommend buying the Dec 13/Nov 22 285 calendar spread eight times for 0.50, contingent on the stock trading 264.00 or higher, day order. If you buy it, plan on rolling the spread each Friday by covering the short calls and shorting new ones tied to the next week's expiration. If the stock continues to rise on each successive Friday between now and December 6, we will ultimately be able to take in more in premium than we have paid for the long Dec 13 calls that

To repeat: AAPL is the only stock we need follow closely to know whether a major top looms for the bull market. The logic is simple: Because Apple is the most valuable company in the world, its shares top institutional investors' must-own list. Furthermore, as long as those who make their living throwing Other People's Money at a dozen or so stocks continue to throw the lion's share of it at AAPL, the bull market is all but certain to continue.  It is not so much a case of AAPL dragging the broad averages higher as dragging the institutional sheeples' brains into thin air. So what are we to infer from the chart show in the inset?  Very simply this: If the stock were to blow past the pink line, a secondary Hidden Pivot' at 248.48, it would strongly imply more upside to at least 283.97, the pattern's 'D' target. That's 14% above these levels, which would mean 30,951 (or so) for the Dow Industrials.  If this were to occur between now and early next year, it would be a fitting blowoff for the biggest U.S. bull market of them all. Keep in mind that your editor can think of a dozen good reasons why the Dow should be selling for half its current price. Better that you should get bullish advice from a permabear who can read charts than from some buy-side fanatic who believes current price earnings multiples alone justify significantly higher prices. ______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 12:02): The stock is getting drubbed after poking its snout slightly above the 248.48 'hidden' resistance on a bull-trap opening. For all we know, the high could endure for the next ten years. Although I doubt it, we needn't concern ourselves with AAPL until such time as it does what we

A 'high-confidence' target at 243.68 has allowed us to go calmly and confidently with the trend, even when the stock was swooning $45 in June and $30 in August. The target, a Hidden Pivot resistance drawn from the daily chart, has been my minimum upside objective since around early April. This implies the stock could go significantly higher if it blows past 243.68. Specifically, and just in case, we should keep the 286.00 target shown (inset) in mind. It is important to be objective about this, since we are using AAPL as a bellwether to tell us when the bull market, which just entered its 92nd month, might be fixing to draw its last breath. Because AAPL is the most valuable company in the world (having recently surpassed MSFT) and a must-own stock for portfolio managers, it stands to reason that the broad averages won't top out until AAPL does. I'd be surprised if we do not see a tradeable pullback from 243.68, and I am therefore still recommending that you go short there using options purchased for $1.00 or less with perhaps two weeks left on them. You can buy a quantity of them provided you do so against a tight stop-loss. Specifically, if the stock were to trade $246 or higher, or close for two consecutive days above 243.68, we should infer it's on its way to at least p2=250.00 of the new pattern, but more likely to D=286.00. ______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 12:28 a.m.): A 238.15 target that caught this week's so-far high within two cents must be respected. It differs from the one at 243.68 given above in that it uses a point C low recorded overnight that lies $5 below the regular session low I used.  My thanks to 'Ovcactus,' a relatively new Pivoteer, for