Apple Computer

Buyers have gone soft nearly $5 shy of the 181.11 Hidden Pivot we were using as a minimum upside target. After climbing no higher than 176.24, AAPL has come down hard since last Wednesday and now looks like a good bet to fall to at least 170.02 before it finds traction. At that point the stock will be feeling an urgent downward tug to fill the 3-point gap that occurred on November 3.  If in fact things play out that way, the stock market is certain to get dragged lower too, since the broad averages rarely go their separate way when AAPL is feeling blue.  Since sellers have long lacked the moxie to strike hard when things are going their way, and because the buy-the-dip mentality is probably as strong as it ever has been, we may be in for a boring stretch. _______ UPDATE (Nov 15, 10:08 p.m.) AAPL did in fact fill the gap noted above, with an opening bar that touched 168.38.  The subsequent bounce looked like sucker bait, so expect the stock to fall even lower today.  A logical minimum downside objective would be 165.25, where Apple shares bottomed on 11/2 ahead of a sharp,  fleeting rally. The net effect, ignoring overnight bars, is a bearish island-gap reversal pattern shown here. _______ UPDATE (Nov 16, 5:14 p.m.): The so-far two day bounce has yet to exceed any prior peaks even on the lowly 15-minute chart, so it remains suspect.  A print at 172.14 would tip the short-term outlook mildly bullish, but 173.26 would be significantly better.

AAPL chomped through a very long-term target at 168.46 on Tuesday, implying that the stock's spectacular rise is likely to continue, if not necessarily quite as steeply. This would hold bullish implications for the U.S. stock market, since AAPL by capitalization is the largest company in the world.   So far, buyers have overshot the target by just $1.19. However, considering the beauty and precision of the pattern that produced it, this Hidden Pivot should have stopped bulls in their tracks. Instead, they seem not to have noticed it.  Yes, it's possible AAPL will go no higher than today's record 169.65, and we should therefore be alert to the possibility of a sharp drop from these levels. But my bias remains bullish for now, acknowledging potential on the monthly chart to 181.11 most immediately, or even to 211.65 longer-term. ______ UPDATE (Nov 12, 6:06 p.m.):  AAPL spent the week in a stall that must have disconcerted bulls, given the height at which the stock has been doing its aerobatics. Its behavior would turn mild menacing for a rare change if the stock should fall beneath 171.72 by mid-week.

Friday's wicked thrust created an  island-gap reversal on the intraday charts. From our perspective, the very bullish significance of this comes from the fact that the rally impaled the midpoint pivot, all but guaranteeing more upside at least to the 166.80 target. This has in fact become so likely that I will eat my hat if AAPL fails to reach the target. Trading the move will be another matter, however, since every trader and investor on earth is bullish at this point. That means the stock is certain to turn diabolically evasive in order to prevent 'everyone' from making easy money on a sure thing. Mr Market could thwart us in several ways: 1) the stock gets to 166.80 much more quickly than expected -- i.e., like Monday or Tuesday; or, 2) it chops and hacks its way higher after nominally breaking out above the old all-time high, 164.94, recorded on 9/1. Regardless, we needn't be confused or fearful, since any price action can be reckoned, simply, in impulse-leg terms. For this purpose, use any one of the three 'external' peaks that I've labeled in the chart. _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 1:51 p.m. EDT): The stock has hit a very clear, very compelling, very long-term target today at 168.46 (click here to see chart). The actual high so far is 168.07 -- a bullseye, for all intents and purposes. I'm as curious as you are to see what the stock does next. If you've held a long-term position, an adjustment is warranted at these levels in the form of a covered write, full or partial profit-taking ; or most aggressively, a short from the target.

AAPL has tripped a nice-looking 'counterintuitive' buy signal with a push past the green line (see inset). As such, it is now no worse than an even-odds bet to get to at least p=157.57, the pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. Is the stock headed to new all-time highs?  We'll be better able to judge once we've seen how buyers fare at 157.57. As always, a decisive move through a 'p' resistance on the first attempt would be a reliable sign that its corresponding 'D' target, in this case 165.97, is likely to be achieved._______ UPDATE (Oct 4, 6:58 p.m.):  The stock is having trouble generating bullish impulse legs even on the hourly chart.  It'll take a pop exceeding the 156.20 peak shown, but any rally short of that deserves no claim on our attention._______ UPDATE (Oct 9, 10:08 p.m.): The stock exceeded the 156.2o peak by 53 cents, generating a bullish impulse leg.  It's not a very impressive one, though, and the only trade I can recommend would be a 'counterintuitive' entry following a pullback to within a few pennies of the 152.91 low recorded on 10/4.________ UPDATE (Oct 10, 7:27 p.m.): The stock slightly penetrated the 157.57 midpoint resistance shown in the chart, but I'd like to see a two-day close above it, or a print at 159.00 or higher intraday, before I infer that a run-up to 165.97 is a good bet. _______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 11:12 p.m.): Today's bear-trap opening left shorts badly on the ropes, shortening the odds that AAPL will eventually make it to 165.97.  A push today exceeding the 160.97 'external' peak recorded on Sep 15 would all but clinch it as far as I'm concerned._______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 8:18 p.m.): The jury is still out, buyers having stalled at 160.87, a dime shy

I'm as tired as you are of watching AAPL flail around, well shy thus far of a 168.33 target first aired here a while back. The target is still valid and is an important one, having taken more than four years to mature.  If AAPL is about to make a major top at that price as we've been expecting, then the bull market itself is close to a major top. I have expressed varying degrees of confidence in the target over the past few weeks, but lest you think me imprecise -- or, heaven forbid, confused -- today's chart frames the question of whether AAPL will reach 168.33 in starkly empirical terms. Specifically, buyers will signal their eagerness for the (final?) ascent if they can pop the stock this week above the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 162.80. This is a relatively minor pattern, but it will give us a firm and precise handle on the strength of price movement within the stock's typical daily range. Alternatively, a breakdown early in the week beneath the point C low at 157.91 would likely subject us to more tedium frustration, if not any particular certitude that the stock is verging on collapse. Its balky performance of late can probably be attributed to the release of a $1000 iPhone. The hype attending this event, especially where it concerns the phone's facial recognition software, makes clear that Apple is no longer the innovator it was under Steve Jobs. Some might even say they are clueless, unable to imagine the next big thing, let alone manufacture and sell it at a reasonable price. AAPL will hold no particular advantage if it enters the car business or makes televisions, and it's quite possible its 'brand' will suffer in a comparison to that of Google,

The lunatics had their charming little fling Tuesday, sending Apple shares into wild spasms that will come to be seen as having signified nothing. Meanwhile, the 168.33 rally target we've focused on for quite some time still looks like an odds-on bet to be reached. We'll short it aggressively when the stock gets there, possibly with a wider stop-loss than the 5 to 15 cent-er we typically use. The long-term chart shows a second Hidden Pivot resistance at 168.45 that should augment the stopping power of the lesser one noted above.  The pivot comes from an ABC pattern that began in 2013, so we know we will be looking at a potentially very important top when AAPL gets there.  These targets are so clear and compelling that I would be shocked if the stock simply blew past them.  In any event, trade with a bullish bias for now, the better to 'relax' if and when the short trade comes home. _______ UPDATE (Sep 13, 10:28 p.m. EDT): Wednesday's theatrical weakness did nothing to alter my outlook or the analysis above. _______ UPDATE (Sep 14, 11:23 p.m.): Thursday's weakness was not theatrical. DaBoyz gapped the stock lower on the opening bar, obviously intending to dry up sellers so that they could run AAPL back up the old wazoo. The attempt failed in mid-attempt, however, leaving the stock vulnerable to a plunge if there's any weakness in the broad averages Friday morning. (I've offered a Friday Jackpot Bet for the stock. Check my 23:53 post in the chat room for details.)

AAPL's price action on Friday was very bearish, since it breached a clear Hidden Pivot support at 159.71 while also exceeding by two cents August 24's key low at 158.55. Ostensibly, this was due to some downbeat reports on iPhone sales that sounded more like the usual spun hogwash intended to shake shares loose from weak hands. Whatever the case, AAPL shows no enthusiasm for moving toward the 168.33 rally target that I said here earlier could mark the end of the bull market. Last week's selloff doesn't justify giving up on the target, but it should at least open our minds to the possibility that the stock has seen its bull-market highs. A further fall exceeding the 154.63 low shown in the chart would provide fresh evidence of this.

I've given AAPL a spotlight and a drum roll for the last couple of weeks as it has inched its way toward the 168.33 target shown. There's another even more important target at 168.46 that is derived from a bull-market pattern going back to 2013.  Between them, we should expect these two Hidden Pivots to show stopping power that is both precise and decisive. A major top is what I am predicting, and we will get short there when the opportunity arrives. More immediately, bulls were stymied last week by the 'secondary' Hidden Pivot at 164.91, but I don't expect it to give them much trouble this week. Traders can use a pullback to the red line 161.48 to generate a mechanical 'buy' signal; however, to pare the $348 entry risk down to a theoretical very small fraction of that, I'd suggest using the mechanical signal to craft a 'camouflage' set-up on the three-minute chart or less. _______ UPDATE (Sep 5, 9:45 p.m.): The yellow flag is out, since AAPL's plunge today followed a stall almost precisely at the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. That would be an unsurprising spot for a bull market to end, although there is not yet any evidence in the daily chart to suggest the 168.33 target that I've been drum-rolling for weeks will not be reached. In any case, it is a time for extreme caution and close observation of the intraday charts. If the stock's fall were to exceed the 160.00 low that I've labeled (click here) by Thursday's close, that would be reason for bulls to ratchet up their worries.________ UPDATE (Sep 6, 6:10 p.m.): DaBoyz sandbagged buyers with a deceptively upbeat opening bar, setting the stage for the moderate selloff that followed.  The stock spent the middle of the day recouping much

Because AAPL ended the week with a failed short squeeze, we should expect it to head lower when trading resumes Monday morning.  On Friday, DaBoyz took the stock down by more than a point on the opening bar in a rigged attempt to exhaust sellers. The rally that followed was predictable, but when it failed to surpass any prior peaks on the intraday charts, only the relapse that occurred was possible. A 168.33 rally target remains viable, and I will continue to use it as a crucial benchmark for the bull market itself. But if the stock starts generating bearish impulse legs on the lesser charts without having achieved that target, it would be hinting that the bull itself is dead after a remarkable run of more than eight years._______ UPDATE (Aug 21, 7:45 p.m. EDT): Apple did in fact break lower at the opening bell, falling $2.34 before DaBoyz had sucked up enough stock to put 'er in reverse. The stock ended the day leaving me with nothing inspired or even insightful to say about it. _______ UPDATE (Aug 23, 9:04 a.m.): With the S&Ps getting whacked today, AAPL is hanging tough, down less than $1 so far and warning permabears not to get too confident just because most stocks happen to be falling._______ UPDATE (Aug 26):  The stock showed bears no mercy last week, maintaining its upward bias regardless of what the stock market was doing. This shortens the odds of a potential last-gasp thrust to 168.33 (or possibly 168.46).