April

Bulls have had two days to ignite a booster-stage rally following last week's encouraging thrust, but have so far failed to deliver. Short-term doubts would be dispelled by a push on Thursday exceeding 1232.65, the midpoint Hidden Pivot shown. However, if no such rally is forthcoming, regaining bullish momentum next week will likely require a scary headline or a downturn in European and Asian markets Sunday night. Despite my reservations, I would suggest to those familiar with the technique a single-contract mechanical' buy if the futures exceed the green line overnight by at least five points for a few bars, then pull back to it. Your stop-loss would be at 1191.40._______ UPDATE (February 19, 12:51 a.m. EST): The buy at the green line suggested above could have produced a one-day profit of as much as $2800 per contract, since the futures vaulted to a 1240.60 peak intraday. Although numerous subscribers reported having gotten long,  I haven't established a tracking position because the trade could not have been executed using the 'mechanical' entry advised. A 'camouflage' entry would have worked, however, and I provided the relevant coordinates in the chat room.  For the record, on the 3-minute chart, a perfect, stress-free opportunity would have come at 10:33 a.m. EST, using an x=1212.20 trigger derived from these coordinates: A= 1210.90 (10:15 a.m.); B=1213.10. Pivoteers will recognize the felicitous perfection of this pattern.  Looking just ahead, Thursday's upward penetration of the pattern's 1232.70 midpoint pivot implies more progress over the near term to p2=1253.23, or to D=1273.80 if any higher.  A pullback to 1212.10 could be bought 'mechanically,' stop 1191.40, for a shot at D. As before, you can try to cut the initial risk substantially by substituting a 'camouflage' entry for a mechanical one.  The trade-off is that this is likely to

In after-hours trading, April Gold tripped a 'counterintuitive' buy signal this evening when it rallied to the green line at 1201.78. I'm not convinced the correction is over, so I won't recommend initiating the trade unless you do so via 'camouflage'. Essentially, this would entail using an uptrending ABC pattern on the three-minute chart or less to fashion a conventional entry trigger of minute degree. Your initial theoretical risk should be held to no more than about five or six ticks. From an analytical standpoint, if the futures cannot achieve p=1207.35, at least, after triggering an entry signal on such a promising pattern, they would be warning of more weakness over the near term.

The so-far $70 selloff from last Thursday's peak may seem vicious to those who bought near the top, but notice how docile it looks on the daily chart. In fact, gold could correct another $125 without damaging the bullish look of this chart. Most immediately, the first place I could see bulls getting traction would be at 1191.50, or perhaps 1175.70 if any lower. A strong  bounce from either would be quite bullish, especially if it goes on to exceed 1263.90, last week's spike top. But these are very minor Hidden Pivot supports taken from the hourly chart, and we will probably be better served by using two 'conventional' levels to project a possible low for this correction. The first lies at 1167.60, equaling a 50% retracement of the rally from mid-January's key low at 1071.30; and the second is at 1144.80, which would be a 0.618 correction of the rally. ______ UPDATE (10:40 a.m. EST): Gold bottomed overnight at 1191.50, precisely to-the-tick at the target given above; it then rallied $26. Since no one mentioned this in the chat room, I haven't established a tracking position.

Thursday's explosive rally brought the April contract within summiting distance of a 1308.00 peak from a year ago that I'd labeled 'the Matterhorn' in an earlier analysis.  From a Hidden Pivot perspective, this number is a very important benchmark, since, if the rally exceeds it without pausing for breath, it would greatly shorten the odds that the bear market begun in September of 2011 is over. To be sure, the 814 target I've been using as a bear-market projection will remain in play until such time as 1432.90 is exceeded to the upside. As a practical matter, however, the bear would be gravely wounded if this rally can hit 1308.10 without an intervening correction of more than $89. It will take at least another 2-3 days of strong buying to accomplish this, so sit back and relax for now.

Gold has taken flight Wednesday night following a lackluster performance during the regular session. The sharp rally projects most immediately to 1218.50, which would be a gain of nearly $24 over the last settlement price. Night owls should position from the long side because of the upside potential that remains. All should note, however, that a decisive push past 1218.50 -- i.e., to 1220.10 or higher -- would hint of more strength to come. A Hidden Pivot at 1223.60 would become a logical target at that point, or possibly even 1237.50 if bulls rampage.______UPDATE (10:14 a.m. EST): When a rally blows past a target, as gold has done this morning with a pop to 1244.40, it means the rally cycle isn't over. The 'Matterhorn' at 1308.00 looms, but it is now a lot closer. If the rally continues, uncorrected, and surpasses 1308.00, I'd infer the bear market begun in the fall of 2011 is over.

Monday’s surge did everything we’d asked of April Gold and more, raising the odds that this rally is more than the usual Whoopee Cushion effusion that has repeatedly teased bulls to the limits of their patience for the last four years. At the intraday high, the futures had demolished a daunting resistance at 1191.90, where April Gold peaked precipitously in mid-October. That leaves only a lesser peak at 1232.30 (see inset) and January 2015’s ‘Matterhorn’ at  1308.00 as impediments to the resumption of the long-term bull market. If the rally, which is still uncorrected on the weekly chart, continues without a significant pause, surpassing both of those peaks without taking a breather, I’d infer that the bear market is over.  In the meantime, because the uptrend is becoming overextended, I’ll forego a night-in-advance trading strategy, since getting aboard this late in the rally is going to be tricky no matter how we attempt it. I do not mean to suggest, however, that it could not get much more overbought, and go significantly higher, before buyers take a rest._______UPDATE (5:30 p.m.): So far, so good. We keep expecting gold to go kamikaze, but the rally continues to hold up surprisingly well. Tuesday's so-far shallow correction portends an imminent thrust to as high as 1222.80 over the near term. That's assuming the so-far retracement low at 1185.90 holds and that buyers have the wattage to push past midpoint resistance at 1204.40. A pullback to that number after it has been exceeded for a few bars by about $3.50 would set up a 'mechanical' buying opportunity, stop 1198.20.

Buyers got second wind on Friday, turning what had begun as a disappointing day into a romp for bulls. The rally extended gold's winning streak, the best we've seen in nearly a year, while raising the likelihood that October's 1191.90 high will be tested. If the futures exceed that peak and go on to better May's 1232.30 high without correcting significantly in-between, it would give bulls more credibility than they've had in years.  A pullback from a just above 1191.90 could provide an excellent low-risk buying opportunity for Pivoteers prepared to act when fear and uncertainty are ratcheted to-the-max.

The futures are bound most immediately for the 1165.90 target shown. Although several subscribers reported getting long from around 1143 based on guidance provided here yesterday, I am not establishing a tracking position because the trade did not conform to our criteria for 'mechanical' entries. If Thursday night's price action does, however, it could conceivably set up a 'mechanical'  buy on a pullback to p2=1151.55, stop 1146.75. Initiate this trade only if you understand the rules, but be aware in any case that with a little more work, a 'camouflage' entry can get you aboard at the same level with considerably less risk. As always, an easy move through the target would imply more upside in the days ahead._______ UPDATE (10:25 a.m. EST): The futures have mildly disappointed, selling off sharply after getting no higher than 1164.00.  The 'mechanical' trade from 1151.55 was not possible, by the way, since there was no pullback to the pink line before gold summited.

Gold’s upward progress has been unspectacular. Even so, nothing, as the saying goes, is more bullish than an uptrend. Wednesday’s thrust was sufficiently robust that, for a change, we won’t need to give bulls the benefit of the doubt. That means we can take the 1154.40 target more or less for granted. The tradable implication is that it makes a pullback to 1142.90 a ‘mechanical’ buy, provided the futures are pulling back from at least 1147.00 and that the pullback takes at least 2-3 bars to play out on the hourly chart. I’ve sketched this hypothetically for your further guidance.