April

Judging from the emails I received today and the discussion in the chat room, April Gold's slide from 1288 to 1230 over the last two sessions has brought bears and doubters out in force. Technically speaking, however, even if the selloff were continue all the way down to $1145, a further $80 below Monday's settlement price, that would still represent just a 'normal' 0.618 retracement of the explosive rally launched from early January's lows. Would that be healthy? It would depend on whether bulls can get traction there.  But the technical damage would be negligible on the weekly chart, if not the daily. Under the circumstances, the uptrend continues to deserve the benefit of the doubt. Looking at a bigger picture, I've billboarded $1308 as an important threshold at which we might reasonably infer that the bear market begun in September 2011 is over. That number marks an important 'external' peak recorded on January 2015.  As such, the jury is still out, since the rally has gone no higher than 1287.80 so far. Meanwhile, my hunch is that gold will remain under pressure as long as stocks are held buoyant. If that proves to be the case, gold and silver bulls may not have long to wait, since targeted Hidden Pivot resistance lies not far above in the Dow and S&Ps. Most immediately, night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1222.30 with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks.  If it's hit, the next place we might look for a tradable bounce is from 1217.10, a Hidden Pivot target on the 20-min chart derived that follows from a=1250.70 (1/14 at 10:40 a.m. ET). _______ UPDATE (March 16, 3:34 p.m. ET): Gold has popped one helluva wheelie today, based on the latest, meaningless drivel from the Fed.  Although we found a way

Overexuberant bulls got badly trapped on the spike to 1287.80 Thursday evening, setting the stage for Friday's nasty $37 plunge. Although the pullback to the green line has ostensibly made the April contract a 'mechanical' buy at 1251.30, stop 1237.40, for a shot at a still-viable D target at 1292.90, we'll put caution ahead of opportunity for the time being. I may revise this, depending on how the futures open Sunday night. But if the broad stock averages continue higher, as I expect, bullion bears -- joined most recently by the commercials -- are apt to use the occasion to inflict more pain on bulls. The bigger picture, for your information, still looks very promising, although it will still take a push above January 2015's 'Matterhorn' peak at 1308.00 to drive a stake through the heart of the bad guys.

Bulls have short-covering bears and some muddled words from Draghi to thank for Thursday's sensational rally, which trampolined $50 from a booby-trapped low as the regular session began. My immediate target is 1293.10, and although the futures dropped too sharply from the  1287.80 intraday high for us to put in a 'mechanical' bid at p2=1279.20, there may be another such opportunity from p=1265.30 that would take a stop-loss at 1256.00. As always, you can reduce the entry risk significantly by substituting a 'camouflage' entry for the 'mechanical' one.  This would also give traders a better chance to get long if the pullback overnight does not quite come down to the red line (i.e., 1265.30). ______ UPDATE (March 11, 11:04 a.m. ET):  The bad guys are winning again today, with stocks and junk bonds trading significantly higher, and gold and T-bonds slumping. April Gold is a 'mechanical' buy nonetheless at 1251.40, stop 1237.40.

The futures are looking heavy and need to close above 1257.50 by the end of the week to keep the heat on bears. Settlement above 1271.40 would be even better, all but clinching more upside over the near term to at least D=1299.20 (see inset). Looking at a bigger picture, we shouldn't be too concerned if corrective selling pushes this vehicle down another $20 or $30, since even a print exceeding 1181.60 to the downside would not do much harm to the very bullish look of the daily chart. Night owls can use this bullish pattern to attempt a low-risk entry 'mechanically' at x=1253.65 or p=1256.80:  a=1247.30 (1/9 at 10:40 a.m. ET); b=1259.90 (1:20 p.m.); c=1250.50.

Friday's wacky price swings easily exceeded the 1273.80 rally target we'd been using for the last several weeks. This Hidden Pivot lodestar helped keep us confidently on the right side of the move, even when the rally stalled, sometimes for days at a time. The $7 overshoot of 1273.80 suggests that bullish ABC patterns of a larger degree are at work pushing gold higher, including one with a 1384.10 target that was included with the last tout. For the moment, however, we should use a somewhat less ambitious pattern to take the stress and guesswork out of trading this vehicle's ups and downs in the days ahead.  The one shown has a 1308.80 target that has been well validated by some precise hits at both p and D.  (Note that last week's peak at 1280.70 occurred a mere $1.20 from where we might have predicted.) For trading purposes, I'd suggesting getting long at p=1250.15 using 'camouflage'; or 'mechanically' at 1220.83, stop  1191.40, provided you know how these trade set-ups work.  My hunch is that a 'mechanical' entry on a pullback to 1250.15, stop 1230.60, would get us aboard with little discomfort, but I am reluctant to recommend this strategy on a Sunday night, since one never knows what sort of mood will greet the new week. Let me mention as well that a move to the 1308.80 target would slightly exceeded the 'Matterhorn' peak at 1308.00 recorded in January 2015.  I've commented on the significance of this peak, but to refresh your memory, let me repeat this again: An upward penetration of 1308.00, however slight, would be very bullish -- enough so, in my estimation, to break the back of the bear market begun in November 2011. _______ UPDATE (March 7, 11:078 p.m. ET): You needn't wait for a big

A 1273.80 rally target has kept us on the right side of the trend for weeks, even when gold looked pretty tired for stretches lasting as long as 3-5 days. Now is a good time to let the bullish imagination run, however. To trade gold futures, we've been using a relatively minor ABC rally pattern that seemed to unfold at a glacial pace. However, if you view this price action as a consolidation within a significantly larger pattern, it makes more sense. I've reproduced a chart that shows this clearly, with a 'k-A' segment that Pivoteers will see as commensurate with the scale of the correction of the last three weeks. Most immediately, the pattern raises our minimum upside objective to 1287.80, the midpoint Hidden Pivot. But it also establishes an intermediate-term target as high as 1384.10.  That's where I think this rally is headed most immediately before it takes another significant breather. Meanwhile, p and p2 can be used to initiate long trades and to manage the risk of ongoing trades. We'll have no fewer than three enty strategies at our disposal -- mechanical, counterintuitive and camouflage -- so stay tuned to the chat room in the coming weeks if you seek guidance in real time.

I've superimposed two bullish patterns of somewhat different degree to show how well April Gold has been doing traversing both. At the moment, in night trading, the futures have pierced the secondary pivot of the smaller pattern, shortening the odds of a continuation to at least D=1258.70.  If that Hidden Pivot is achieved, it would mean that the p2 (pink line) of the larger pattern has been decisively exceeded, making its sibling 'D' target at 1273.80 an odds-on bet. Overall, although the follow-through (CD) leg of the large pattern has unfolded at a glacial pace, it looks well capable of reaching its target, especially with the smaller pattern helping to drive it. Hidden Pivot levels associated with either pattern can be traded 'mechanically', using the same rules that always apply. If you're uncertain about how this works, just ask in the chat room.  You might also check the archive, since many touts recommending 'mechanical' trades have been illustrated with annotated charts. _______ UPDATE (March 2, 12:27 a.m. ET): Amidst fretting and disappointment in the chat room yesterday morning, I posted the following:  "Gold looks fine; there is no change whatsoever in my analysis. Its [recent] bullishness has been temporarily suppressed by a very buoyant stock market. This is the only 'correlation' working at the moment, but we should have become used to it over the last four-and-a-half years." Period. _______ UPDATE (March 2, 9:51 p.m.): No Change.

The daily chart shows a consolidation pattern that probably has at least another 3-5 days to go before gold might be ready for another strong leg up. The lesser charts remain easily tradable intraday, however, as the graph (see inset) attests. Friday's low occurred to-the-exact-tick at a 1211.90 Hidden Pivot support, producing a bounce worth as much as $1500 per contract to any trader who was paying attention. Whence might the next short-term opportunity come?  Following a marginal breach to the downside of 1211.90, I'd look for a 'counterintuitive' set-up like the one shown, using the big ABC pattern. _______ UPDATE (February 29, 9:11 a.m. ET): Using the existing point 'C' low at 1212.00, the futures rallied overnight to trigger an entry at 1223.68.  The stall so far almost precisely at p=1234.35 has validated the pattern, which projects to D=1258.70. (60-min, A=1207.60 on 2/22).  

The slog toward the 1273.80 target shown is starting to feel like a climb up El Capitan with a 50-pound backpack. Each feint has given way to a sharp selloff, followed by a tedious, ratcheting recovery. This hasn't altered the target, nor even the odds that it will be reached, but it has made profiting from it an endurance test. The futures have beckoned a 'mechanical' buy at 1232.65, stop 1218.75, three times in the last two days, and although none of the trades would have been stopped out, in retrospect it would have been preferable to wait for a 'camouflage' entry opportunity. That, at least, would lower the bar, keeping one in the trade for perhaps an hour, as opposed to...days.  The 'mechanical' trade remains valid nonetheless, but it will take more patience the guts to ride it out.