I’d expected the rally to reach a minimum 40.05, but it looks to be dying without having gone any higher than 39.02. Even if it were to do so now, the pullback and running start required to get the job done will diminish any bullish arguments to be made thereupon. Had the futures punched past the 40.50 peak recorded on January 4 without correcting, it would have opened an easy path to the mid $40s. Instead, we should look for a rally leg once the correction, now two days old, has run its course, but I’d be surprised if it reaches its ‘d’ target. The implication is that it could be shortable. _______ UPDATE (March 16, 12:18 a.m. ET): The two-day decline has tripped a ‘short’ from 36.08 with a 33.14 target. On the chart shown, the point A high associated with this target can be found at 40.50 (January 4). _______ UPDATE (9:35 p.m.): A vicious short-squeeze has put the futures on course for a run-up to at least 40.58. That’s a D target associated with A=34.40 (3/4 at 6:00 a.m. on the 240-minute chart). _______ UPDATE (March 18, 10:56 a.m): With this morning’s decisive push past 40.58, the April contract is now working on a 42.66 target. Look for a ‘mechanical’ buying set-up at p2=40.99 if you want to trade this vehicle. Th p2 pivot can be found on the daily chart, tied to A=32.32 on 2/29, and it has already been slightly exceeded.
