April

The marginally bearish pattern shown here last week obscured a marginally bullish one that put April Gold on a 'mechanical' buy signal. It was triggered a week ago when the futures came down to the green line (x=1785.90). The position would have produced a theoretical profit on four contracts of $12,000 on Friday, when a weak rally touched the red line where partial profit-taking would have been in order. All of this has little to tell us about gold's next move, but we shouldn't expect too much, given the tedium of the last ten months. _______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 8:31 p.m. EST): We can continue to use this pattern to get a precise handle on gold, since the 'mechanical' buy signal it generated two weeks ago is still live and very profitable, at least in theory. The story will become more interesting if bulls blow past D=1875.10, but I wouldn't count too heavily on it. In the meantime, a pullback from p2 to p once the higher pivot is touched could be 'mechanically' tradeable.

The tortuous pattern shown should be serviceable for now, although we have come to expect gold's nasty, gratuitous dives to fall short of their 'D' targets -- in this case 1740.00.  The p2 secondary pivot (p2) at 1769.20 is another matter, however, and it should be used to attempt bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss. Specifically, I'll suggest managing the trade with a reverse pattern where a=1836.80 on 1/25 at 6:00 a.m. EST.  Theoretical entry risk will be around $500 per contract, so this one is not recommended for novices. _______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 8:22 a.m.): Gold's moves in either direction are 100% gratuitous but tradeable nonetheless. Although the April contract failed to dip to the secondary pivot where we'd planned to do some bottom-fishing, the current rally will become 'mechanically' shortable if and when it touches x=1826.60. With about $12,000 of theoretical entry risk on four contracts, this gambit calls for a deft 'camouflage' touch. Here's the chart.

Gold's lengthy unspooling has become all but insufferable, an arrested bull market doing its best to vex and frustrate even the most patient bulls. My hunch is that the long correction will end with a brutal washout, but even then, the final low would be subject to a Hidden Pivot 'D' support. The one at 1612.30 shown in the chart would qualify, but moreso if the plunge to it is appropriately steep.  Regardless, I'd be tempted to try tightly stopped bottom-fishing at the 1683.30 midpoint pivot, or even at p2=1647.60. There are no larger corrective patterns with more authority than the small one shown because the entire slide since last August exceeded no 'external' lows of significance. The small pattern did, however, and that's why I am using it to project a possible bottom. I am not married to the washout scenario, however, and will remain alert to any subtle upturn from p or p2 as a possible watershed low. ______UPDATE (Mar 30, 10:55 a.m. ET): April Gold's plunge this morning through a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1683.30 has shortened the odds of a further fall to D=1612.30, the target given above. Here's a fresh chart. ______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 9:22 p.m.): Let's set the bar at 1735.60, a tick above an 'external' peak made Monday on the way down, before we wax enthusiastic about today's short-squeeze rally. _______UPDATE (Apr 1, 10:17 a.m.): June Gold triggered a 'mechanical' short today at 1720.7, stop 1756.10. It is predicated on a fall to D=1614.60, equivalent to 1735.60, basis June. I would rate the trade '7.0' -- not bad, although the implied $14,000 risk on four contracts calls for a 'camouflage' entry set-up that would reduce that to under $1000 theoretical.  Specifically, an rABC set-up on the hourly chart can be attempted

With mincing steps, April Gold has climbed modestly over the last two weeks and looked poised for something more decisive. But up or down?  My bias is bearish, implying a fall to the 1630.50 target shown (see inset). The reason for my dour outlook is that the futures have failed to surpass visually distinctive peaks on the last two rallies.  That's nothing that an uncorrected pop on Monday or Tuesday above 1768.50 wouldn't remedy, but even then a further push exceeding the 1772.90 target shown here would be needed to cushion bulls against the inevitable next bear raid. ______ UPDATE (Mar 24, 11:38 p.m.): A feeble rally has failed to exceed even a single prior peak on the hourly chart over the last two days.  Gold looks so punk, in fact, that it is probably about to feint higher to get our attention. That's okay, but let's stipulate that the rally exceed the 1754.20 peak recorded on March 18 before we take it half-seriously. _____ UPDATE (Mar 25, 6:51 p.m.): A gratuitous, $20 spike died quickly, sending gold down to a loss on the day. _______ UPDATE (Mar 26, 10:23 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Gold spent most of last week in a measured ascent, only to falter when it counted. Notice that the 1738.00 high failed by a millimeter to surpass an 'external' peak at 1739.10 recorded a week earlier. That would have created a robust impulse leg on the hourly chart; instead we got a pathetic one. This is notwithstanding the faintly encouraging rally on Friday afternoon. It may have felt exhilarating at the time, but in fact it surpassed no significant previous peaks. It must therefore be reckoned a fake, a judgment that can stand pending better performance. Let's set the bar at 1741.20 to tell us when a rally becomes worthy of our attention. That's a tick above a small but technically useful peak recorded March 1 on the way down.  Even more encouraging would be a fist-pump above the 1757.40 point 'C' high of the downtrending ABC pattern shown in the chart. It was slightly bullish that the 1667.20 downside target was not reached, but negating the pattern itself with a move above 'C' is what bulls should want to see. Alternatively, my worst-case target is still 1630.50, a dubious pattern using a 'marquee high' that will have to suffice for now. ______ UPDATE (10:06 a.m. ET): Gold's rally has done what virtually all of gold's rallies do when they become moderately encouraging-- i.e., turn to ca-ca. I am particularly skeptical when the rally seems to have been caused by some utterance by Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve's charlatan-in-chief. I will continue to set a high bar for rallies to avoid getting sucked in by fakes. _______ UPDATE (Mar 18, 6:29 p.m.): Regarding the 'high bar' mentioned above, you can wake me if and when an upthrust hits 1768.60, since that would generate an impulse leg on the hourly chart

Bulls struggled last week to hold above a key Hidden Pivot support at 1702, but their failure to endure portends more downside over the near term to 1630.50. That's my worst case target for now, and although the chart pattern that produced it is highly unconventional, using a visually obvious 'marquee' high and a point 'B' low that failed to exceed any significant prior lows, it's all we've got. The pattern is certainly good enough for government work, meaning a tradeable reversal at or near D is highly likely. We will remain open-minded nonetheless toward the unthinkable -- i.e., a decisive breach of the 1630.50 pivot that would imply an eventual test of the 1467 watershed low recorded exactly a year ago. A relatively minor 'hidden support' at 1660.40 mentioned here earlier also remains viable and can be used to bottom-fish with a very tight stop-loss. Gold clearly does not like anything Powell has to say, even when his obfuscations suggest the Fed will continue to pursue inflationary policies with reckless abandon. So why doesn't bullion rally on that prospect? Perhaps it understands that the inflate-or-die effort is ultimately doomed. Even so, that is hardly a reason for bullion prices to have fallen relentlessly since last August's $2100 high. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 7:05 p.m. ET): A downside target at 1667.20 that I flagged in the chat room has surfaced as a possible "best case" for a turn. If you use  a 'reverse ABC' pattern to set up a trade, the A-B segment can be as tight as 10 points, provided you plant the point 'C' low within 1.00 point of the target. Here's the chart. ______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 4:29 p.m.): The futures have levitated themselves off a 1673 low that stranded our niggardly bid, but I have little

Although I can offer no guarantees that the 1702.00 downside target shown in the chart will definitively end gold's seven-month dirge, it looks promising to produce at least a temporary bottom and a high-odds spot for bottom-fishing. A tightly-stopped limit bid very near the target is one way to go, but if you're proficient with 'reverse ABC' (rABC) set-ups, try using the 1759.00 low recorded on February 9 as point 'A' before you start positioning 'C' somewhere below 1703.00. This trick will still leave about $1400 of entry risk per contract, but you can cut that by as much as 80% using an 'artificial' point 'A' at 1782.20, last Wednesday's low. A third option, for Pivoteers who have been attending Wednesday classes regularly, would be to employ a 'camouflage' trigger on the five-minute-or-less chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 3, 3:50 p.m. EST): The April contract struggled to hold above the 1702.00 target, but if it gives way you should brace for more slippage to D1=1660.40, or thence to D2=1630.50, my worst case low for the bear cycle begun last August. D2 requires using the 'marquee' high, A2=2107.60 -- an unusual choice, but our only option if the downtrend progresses.  So far, D=1702.00 has been exceeded by just 2.60, not enough for us to infer the Hidden Pivot support has been compromised. Each of the targets can be bottom-fished with a risk-averse set-up based on the Hidden Pivot method, but if the last is reached, you can be more aggressive.

Bears couldn't finish the job last week, stranding a fine-looking Hidden Pivot target at 1749.80 with a feeble rally to end the week. The target will remain valid nonetheless until such time as 1878.90 is exceeded to the upside. If and when that happens we shouldn't get too excited, since bulls too have been unable to achieve 'D' targets associated with similarly reliable patterns. For trading purposes I'll suggest backing up the truck to buy 'em if the futures get within 40 cents of 1749.80. A stop-loss as tight as 1747.90 can be used if the order is filled. _______ UPDATE (Feb 22, 4:37 p.m. EST): The futures went the 'wrong' way, getting nowhere near our bid. However, despite the seeming strength of the rally, it conspicuously failed to surpass  an 1814.20 'external' peak made on the way down last Tuesday. The peak seems likely to be exceeded soon, but the inability of bulls to accomplish this on the first try suggests that the coming rally is not destined for greatness. _______ UPDATE (Feb 24, 7:33 p.m.): No sooner was the 1814.20 peak exceeded than gold receded back into its wonted state of fake mournfulness.  The 1749.80 downside target is still in play theoretically, but I'm not encouraging anyone to give it much thought.

Gold remains easily tradeable not only on the intraday charts, but on the 'daily' as well. A routine 'mechanical' short sketched out here last week produced a quick profit of $3100 per contract, even if the set-up was uninspiring. Traders should have no illusions, however, that they will be catching the start of a major move. since the long, tedious slog lower since last August offers no hint of a significant turn. The correction at the December low amounted to just 16% off the 2107 high recorded in August, not even qualifying as a bear market. Nor has the correction produced a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart; that would take a breach of the 1704 low recorded last June. Wake me if this happens, or if a powerful stab higher takes out November's 1978 high -- an event that would be bullishly impulsive and suggest gold might be on its way to as high as 2284. _______ UPDATE (Feb 16, 10:03 a.m. EST): The futures are getting pounded today for no good reason, presumably bound for the  1765.50 target shown. They typically do not reach D targets in either direction, but in this case the precipitous move through p  suggests selling will go the distance. Here's the chart. _____ UPDATE (Feb 17, 8:37 p.m.): A so far feeble bounce has occurred from within 2.40 points of the 1765.50 target, but it would take a print at 1795.20 to lift bulls from immediate jeopardy. _______ UPDATE (Feb 18, 9:43 p.m.):  Gold got barely any bounce from the 1765.50 target. This means it is about to fall to 1749.80, where you should look for a tradeable bounce. Here's the chart.