DIA

The secondary Hidden Pivot at 288.22 shown in the chart will make a serviceable upside target for the next 2-3 weeks, although we should avoid the temptation of drooling over the prospect of getting short there. I'll be more inclined to recommend it if we can get make a few bucks on the way up.  The best way to do this will be to catch a swing low intraday, possibly on an opening-bar bull trap. Watch this space and the Trading Room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (July 14, 7:52 p.m.): So eager were buyers to come charging out of the chute this morning that there was almost no follow-through to Monday's hard sell-off. DIA now looks bound for the 273.14 midpoint pivot of this chart, at least, but the D target at 297.18 would become an odds-on bet following a decisive push past p. Here's the chart.  _______ UPDATE (Jul 16, 9:08 p.m.): The  rally sevened out nearly three points beneath the 273.14, implying buyers are getting fatigued. Let's see if they get second wind ahead of the weekend.

I'd suggested buying July puts expiring next Friday (July 17)  for under $1.00 if DIA rallied to 260.88. This was a difficult trade, since the opening bar occurred on a gap past that number, followed by an hour of hovering that pushed the July 17 240 puts from $1.02 in the first minute to as low as 0.60.  I'll establish a tracking position if I hear from at least two subscribers who got short on my say-so.  Although DIA subsequently dove to as low as 257.88, the puts lost juice ahead of the three-day weekend and traded no higher than 1.18.  They are keepers, nonetheless, since DaBoyz are unlikely to open index futures higher on Sunday night after traders have had a three-day weekend to steep in grim pandemic news. The lunatics will likely be over it by late Monday or Tuesday, but probably not in time to deflate any puts you may have bought as last week drew to a close. _______ UPDATE (July 6, 6:15 a.m. EDT): The usual lunatics and thieves have joined forces Sunday night, goosing index futures into a steep climb. This means DIA will open on a gap equating to a perhaps 400-point gain in the Dow. The short position will remain theoretically viable nonetheless until such time as DIA trades above 267.14. _______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 9:05 p.m.): The short is now profitable, but it was difficult to tell how many subscribers got on board with puts and at what price. I'll track four @ 0.65 as reported by one subscriber, but please let me know if you did better or worse and I'll average the prices. Offer two to close for twice what you paid for them, good-till-canceled.

I started tracking DIA again thinking it would provide a way to trade the swings without having to use futures contracts. Alas, this ETF for the Dow plays catch-up nearly every day, gapping up or down on the opening depending on what index futures have done overnight. However, the 242.09 target looks ripe for bottom-fishing, notwithstanding the existence of  'structural' support from some lows made near 242 a month ago.  Accordingly, I'll recommend buying four expiring 254 calls if DIA gets within 5 cents of 242.09. That will probably be the lowest strike available for under $1. The order is good for the first hour only. The trade seems likely to survive whatever plunge DaBoyz are able to engineer Sunday night, since the Dow would have to fall more than 800 points to negate it. ______ UPDATE (Jun 29, 9:56 p.m. EDT): The trade detailed above came nowhere near triggering.  Instead, an inside day left no interesting possibilities for the moment.  _______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 12;12 a.m. EDT):  A 'mechanical' short at the green line looks moderately enticing, although I've advised against a similar trade in the E-Mini S&Ps due to the sums involved. In this case, you can take a small speculative stake using Jul 10 puts at the first strike where they are priced under 1.00 (241 should be close). Index futures have already gapped above the green line in night trading, and it's impossible to predict where this vehicle will be at the opening bell. I may be able to sharpen (or perhaps cancel) the trade then, so you should hold off unless you really know what you're doing.  _______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 9:48 p.m.): With a three-day weekend approaching, I'll suggest shifting to the July 17 puts.

This trade could work for novices, since the midpoint pivot is so well situated and the impulse leg is strictly 'kosher' (and even a little gnarly).  Stay tuned to the Trading Room if you're keen to play, since I will try to make myself available for precise guidance if the trade triggers. The gist of it would be to buy a June 26 call at the lowest strike where they are trading for under $1. That would be around 266/267, but I can't be sure until I've seen how things open Monday morning. There's always the chance DIA will open on a gap, as it nearly always does, that is beneath the p=254.53 midpoint pivot where we intend to do our buying. You should attempt the trade with the DIA within 0.05 points or less of that number, but not if DIA has dropped below 254.43. ______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 8:34 p.m. EDT): I still like the trade, although not as much after enduring three days of gratuitous sideways shuffle at or below the green line. If p=254.82 is hit within the first hour of the regular session, do as recommended; otherwise, cancel all plans. ____ UPDATE (June 2, 9:01 p.m.): Tedium has taken its toll on the trade, and so we've canceled it. Better opportunities will surely come along _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 7:46 p.m.): The breach of the 254.62 midpoint support was less than two points, but that's sufficient to shift the burden of proof to bulls. An acceleration to the downside would put the 242.09 target shown in the chart in play. _______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 6:08 p.m.): A rally to x=260.88 would trip a 'mechanical' short via this pattern with a stop-loss at 267.14. This is NOT to be traded using put options, since the trade is not

DIA's gap-up openings have provided no opportunities to get long on-the-fly. Instead, we'll have to settle for a short initiated at D=280.28, a Hidden Pivot that is all but guaranteed to be reached because of Friday's gap through p=265.48.  I'll suggest buying the first near-expiration puts priced under $1 when DIA gets within 0.05 points of the target. I may be able to refine that strategy in real time, so stay tuned to the Trading Room if you care. A move to the target will turn the old record high at 295.87 magnetic, so we should have no illusions about D's stopping power. _____ UPDATE (June 10, 9:40 p.m. EDT): The 280.28 target is still an odds-on bet, but DIA looks like it's fixing to roll down hard before the next bull thrust.  Ordinarily I would suggest placing a 'mechanical' bid at 265.48, but my gut it saying we'll be able to get in cheaper if we wait. Here's a nice chart to hearten all of you bears who have been waiting so patiently for a breath of sanity. _______ UPDATE (June 11, 8:21 p.m.): DIA crashed without quite reaching the 280.28 target, and although some subscribers apparently got short ahead of the plunge, they acted on their own initiative, so I am not establishing a tracking position. My gut feeling is that the selling will continue into next week, and I'd therefore suggest caution if you jump on any rallies on Friday. _______ UPDATE (June 14, 11:07 p.m.): The midpoint pivot has held so far, since the Mini-Dow futures have traded no lower than 25,080 as of 11 p.m. Sunday night. If it is breached decisively, that would put the 237.52 target in play.  The pattern could be tradeable, so tune to the chat room if you care. _______

DIA's spirited leaps through two Hidden Pivot resistances since mid-May has made a run-up to the D target at 267.28 very likely. Although I restored this vehicle to the touts list in order to provide an equity-based trading alternative to futures contracts, the juicy 'mechanical' entry set-ups we look for have been relatively few and far between. That's because DIA is usually playing catch-up with index futures at the opening bell, creating bullish gaps that leave our fire-sale bids in the dust. Be that as it may, we'll continue to look for opportunities as they arise, probably going against the trend in places like the 'D' target here. We should be prepared nonetheless to jump on intraday swoons if they come our way.

I've put DIA back on the touts list in case it triggers a 'mechanical' buy signal that subscribers, particularly newcomers to Rick's Picks, could use to get long. Although I prefer to trade the underlying shares rather than options when using this kind of entry set-up, because this vehicle is pricey we can use calls instead.  Ideally, the signal would come on a sharp pullback from around 253, but we may see other opportunities intraday. You'll need to be tuned to the Trading Room if they materialize too quickly for a tout update that would generate an email notification. To receive these timely messages, check the 'Get Touts'  box in the Profile section of your account Dashboard. Looking just ahead, there is upside potential to as high as 267.28 if buyers can push decisively past p=247.79 or close above it for two consecutive days. ______ UPDATE (May 24, 3:40 p.m.): DIA spent the entire week screwing the pooch, winding up almost exactly where it was a week earlier on a gap-up opening that is still being digested.  Any decent entry opportunities that arise will come intraday, so stay tuned -- either by checking the Trading Room for timely discussion or enabling update notifications in your account dashboard. _______ UPDATE (May 26, 9:25 p.m.): A pullback to the green line (238.05) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, but we'll take a pass, since the point B high of the pattern is 100% pork sausage. Another problem is that DIA did not follow the S&Ps lower at the end of the day, adding to our consternation. The gap up through p=247.79 is bullish nonetheless and implies DIA will reach the 267.28 target with little trouble._______ UPDATE (May 27, 9:37 p.m.): No change. DIA still looks like a lead-pipe cinch to reach 267.28, although

A 228.44 downside target I'd sent out the night before caught Thursday's V-shaped low precisely. I'd proffered trading instructions as well, enabling some subscribers to buy call options at the exact bottom of an 846-point Dow rally.  Those who reported getting aboard in the Rick's Picks Trading Room used different strategies, so I did not establish a tracking position. However, using the 'rABC' entry tactic I'd explicitly advised could have produced a gain of as much as $34,000 on four round lots. Those who bought options instead would have doubled their money easily, although some of the expiring out-of-the-money calls traded for as much as seven times what they'd fetched in the early minutes of the session. I put DIA back on the touts list because some subscribers who follow the broad averages were keen to trade an equity-based vehicle rather than E-Mini S&P futures. The opportune timing of DIA's return to the list was not a coincidence. I had dropped it for a while because it went all boring on us, but brought it back in conjunction with bearish developments earlier in the week. If you are among those who said they wanted DIA back on the list, I'd suggest tuning to the chat room and monitoring my tout updates diligently to make the most of it. Speaking of which, DIA is bound for a minimum 237.59, whence you can expect a tradeable pullback. I am not putting out a trade a day in advance, however, since that Hidden Pivot resistance coincides with  a technically important peak at 237.50 that unfortunately will attract all the yo-yos. Here's the chart. ______ UPDATE (May 15, 8:39 a.m. EDT): Forget the chart, since index futures are down sharply ahead of the opening -- sufficiently so to take out the point 'C' low

DIA would need to fall by 5 or 6 points to start looking interesting enough to play for a bounce. In the meantime. we'll look to catch a piece of the downside using put options that have gone from extremely overpriced in April to somewhat underpriced now. Specifically, near-the-money puts are sporting implied volatilities of around 30 versus recent actual volatility in the underlying of around 50. Accordingly, I'll suggest bidding 0.46 for four May 230 puts expiring this Friday. Mark the order good for the first 15 minutes of the session only. Although it would take a strong opening in DIA to push the puts down to our niggardly bid, my objective is to get subscribers familiar enough with the option grid that any trades we attempt as the week wears on will seem more familiar. ______ UPDATE (May 13, 9:24 p.m. EDT): We'll give the downtrend wide berth, since it feels like it could snowball.  If a countertrend opportunity were to materialize, the most logical place for this to occur would be near 228.44.  Pivoteers looking for a quick play should plant the low of an rABC pattern there to set up the trade. _____UPDATE (May 14, 10:27 a.m.): The 228.44 reversal target noted above has worked precisely, although the jury is still out on whether it will mark today's low. A subscriber reported covering some puts at the target -- a good thing, since DIA has bounced 1.50 off the low so far. _______ UPDATE (11:12 a.m.): The jury is no longer out, since the Dow Industrials have rallied 460 points and are trading close to 'even' since bottoming a hair beneath my 228.44 target.  I've asked subscribers to let me know if they were able to get long at the low using my instruction. If so,