Dow Industrial Average

With all the gloom and doom on how much farther the stock market has yet to fall we need to step back and ask ourselves "What if this low holds and we start to climb higher over the coming months?" We could be setting ourselves up for a slingshot move to 32,913 that will shock the world. When we start to see the hoi polloi who were busy chasing the last mania (bitcoin) move into the general stock market is when we will know we are near a top.  Although we don't trade weekly charts the theoretical entry at 25,748.7 is upon us and we should be on the lookout for signs on charts of lessor degree that this bull is just getting started. So throw out your preconceptions and ignore the media fabricated narratives and let the numbers and hidden pivot signposts simply tell us exactly what the market wants to do.  [Tout prepared by David Isham]

The Dow's leap Friday well above an important prior peak and a major midpoint pivot (p) at 25047 significantly shortens the odds of a further rally to the 26734 target shown. For the moment, however, I'd suggest using 25,890, the secondary pivot', as a minimum upside objective. If it's hit by Thursday, or better yet exceeded, that would make additional progress to 26734 a lock-up as far as I'm concerned.  For trading purposes, and to sharply reduce risk, we can use the relatively short A-B segment begun 24490 on Feb 14 for entry set-ups. Stay tuned to the chat room for real time guidance on this if the opportunity beckons.

With about 90 minutes left on the clock Tuesday, I thought the Dow Average was a goner.  It looked primed for a thousand-point header to a Hidden Pivot target at 23,192.  Lo, bulls got second wind, extending an earlier, opening-hour binge to a threshold where it looked like bears were in worse trouble than bulls.  Notice in the chart that the thrust that occurred in the last 90 minutes exceeded three prior peaks, including two 'external' ones. This created a powerful impulse leg whose strength is somewhat masked by the relatively short length of the A-B segment. It also implies that a pullback of as much as 700-800 points from current levels would be merely corrective -- i.e., a buying opportunity. So far, short-covering bears have seen no such opportunity, only a shallow retracement that has left them painfully exposed and anxious. As veteran market-watchers know, the hallmark of a mature bull market is its ability to recoup steep plunges very quickly with equally steep rallies -- rallies that don't give bearish doubts enough time to take root. Bulls will have pulled off this trick if they can extend for just one more day the uptrend that was in progress at the final bell. _______ UPDATE (Feb 7, 7:33 p.m.): The Industrial Average finished the day looking somewhat more bullish than the E-Mini S&Ps, but not much. If it cracks the green line, that would increase the likelihood of a further drop to the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 24423. _______ UPDATE (Feb 8, 5:52 p.m.):  My new target is 22,766, based on this pattern.  It is likely to be reached because of the decisive penetration on Thursday of a key midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 24029. _______ UPDATE (Feb 11, 5:04 p.m.): The Indoos have bounced almost precisely from

Friday's avalanche crushed a 25,741 target we were using to stay comfortably on the right side of last week's carnage. The Hidden Pivot support evinced no bounce whatsoever, implying sellers are not yet spent and that the plunge is likely to spill into next week.  Accordingly, I'll recommend using the 25426 target shown (see inset) as a minimum downside projection. If it is easily exceeded, shift the target down to 25314. If that last number gives way easily, take it as a sign that bulls, for the first time in years, are seriously on the run. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 9:40 p.m.) Sellers have shredded numerous Hidden Pivot supports effortlessly, making the unstoppable power of this downtrend increasingly apparent each step of the way. Look for a bounce from the 23995 midpoint support shown, but please note that if gets trounced the 23197 target would be in play. _______ UPDATE (6:34 a.m.): The E-mini Dow made an overnight low at 23088, a little more than a hundred points beneath the 23,197 target flagged above. This has bearish implications for Tuesday despite the powerful overnight bounce to 24,120. Basis the mini-futures, and assuming the overnight high at 24120 is not exceeded, we could see a drop to 22928, or even to 21,735 if things turn really ugly.

Buyers are closing fast on the 27,571 target I flagged here three weeks ago, when the Indoos were trading 1300 points lower. This has happened more quickly than I might have imagined, although it's hardly a surprise. The rally could not get much steeper, although we should be open to the possibility that a 500-point day gets us there by mid-week. The pattern shown encompasses the entire bull market and yields the highest projection that can be extrapolated from the weekly chart. Any higher targeting would need to come from the C-D leg alone and assume an extraordinary extension of the larger, 'natural' ABCD. ______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 8:16 p.m.): The Indoos would have to fall below 26,293 to generate a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart.  This they haven't done since early November, when an uncharacteristic string of weak days ultimately generated no downforce or follow-through. This time, however, the blue chip average is falling from a greater height and will be especially vulnerable because there have been no corrections worthy of the name in many months. ______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 9:04 p.m.): The hourly chart went bearish with Tuesday's plunge, but it'll take a further decline exceeding 25,257 to turn the daily chart negative. The Indoos could end Wednesday's session sitting above today's close, but I doubt this will occur without their having gone at least 200 points lower intraday. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 5:34 p.m.): Use the 25,741 target shown to guide your trading over the next day or two. The Indoos have tripped a 'mechanical' short at 26,188, stop 26,338, that is tied to the target.

Buyers demolished yet another middling Hidden Pivot resistance Tuesday, much as they've been doing for the last nine years. I'd have laid odds that the 25,392 target (see inset) would show some stopping power, but it didn't. When the dust settled, the Indoos had topped 47 points above it at 25439. When a Hidden Pivot as clear and compelling as this one is so easily brushed aside, it strongly implies that bulls have sufficient buying power to push the blue chip average much higher. I'll back off targeting for a while until I can offer you a fresh one with the ability to shorten our odds for a successful trade north._______UPDATE (Jan 9, 11:41 p.m.): Back to the old drawing board. The 27,251 target shown should tide us over for a while, since it leaves nearly 1900 of upside for the Indoos to cover before they hit something ostensibly solid._______ UPDATE (Jan 17, 5:39 p.m.): If you enjoy hoping that each and every Hidden Pivot rally target could conceivably produce the Mother of All Tops -- I know I do -- then keep the number 26,416 in mind. That's a dark-horse-candidate 'hidden' resistance of somewhat lesser degree than the one at 27,251, and I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention it. For some of you, it could make Thursday's obligatory upthrust more interesting to watch. On the 120-minute chart, here are the coordinates that produced the target: A=22,219 on 9/25/17; B=24,534 on 12/4; and C=24,101 on 12/7. _______ UPDATE (Jan 25, 7:23 p.m.): So much for our 'dark-horse' target at 26,416 . Thursday's waft to 26458 exceeded it by a not insignificant 42 points, rendering it obsolete. We'll revert to the original target at 27,251 -- a high-confidence bet as far as I'm concerned. (So high-confidence, actually, that

We've been using a 25278 target for quite some time, but Friday's close above it caused me to take another look at DJIA's intraday charts. As things have developed, they divulge an even more compelling target at 25392, so let's use it as a minimum upside projection. This is about 60 points higher than a corresponding target I've flagged for DIA, but the two vehicles are not perfectly synched, so the difference probably won't matter for trading purposes. This target is the last very clear one that can be extrapolated from the intraday charts, and it looks like a decent bet to stop the crazed herd in its tracks. If the Indoos simply plow right through it, though, take that as a sign that there is still considerable buying power remaining to be expended.

The penultimate trading day of the year left the Dow Industrials with unfinished business. All it would have taken to reach the 25,278 target shown was another 439 points of giddyap. Alas, DaBoyz were not about to stick their necks out with an act of daring they might have regretted. Perhaps they will pick up the pace on Friday with a finishing stroke more powerful than any of the wafting rallies we've seen since early December?  Regardless, given the ferocity of the move through the red line on December 8, the target seems almost certain to be achieved. And because of the precise interaction over time between the Indoos and the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot, I expect a tradable pullback from within inches of 25,278.  Plan accordingly, but check the chat room for real-time guidance when appropriate.

We've been using a Hidden Pivot resistance at 25113 as a bull-market target, but it's time to raise our sights to 27,251, the highest objective that can be calculated using the long-term chart. The pattern itself is like nothing I have ever seen before, with an extraordinarily long impulse leg that saw only one significant correction between 2009 and 2015. The fact that so powerful a rally could give way to a second (C-D) stage even steeper and with fewer corrections is strongly suggestive of a blow-off.  If that is what we are in fact witnessing, the 27251 target should put us in excellent shape to trade the implied, huge rally, but also to reverse polarity and get short at the exact top. As always, you should stay tuned to the chat room and/or check 'Email Notifications' on your account dashboard if you want to stay closely apprised of trading opportunities that develop in real time. _______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 9:38 p.m.): Be alert to the possibility of a fall below 24,499. That would be the first hint of trouble on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (Dec 19, 8:15 p.m.): Raise the hint-of-trouble threshold to 24682 -- not that such a concern is even remotely on the tiny endorphin-addled brains of those responsible for the current 24754. ______ UPDATE (Dec 21, 5:30 p.m.): The new "trouble" threshold is 24617.