E-Mini NASDAQ

The chart show the Nasdaq Index to be locked in a duel between bulls and bears, but my hunch is that the futures will fall to at least the midpoint support at 3580.25 before they can resume their upward trek.  That number is a Hidden Pivot, and it is attractively enough situated so that you could bottom-fish there, if not via camouflage, then with a 3580.50 bid and a three-tick stop-loss. Please note that if the stop gets hit, NQ would be signaling more downside to 3491.50. _______ UPDATE (April 6, 3:36 p.m. EDT): Friday's avalanche crushed the midpoint support noted above, implying that the weakness will persist at least until 3491.50 is reached. This implies that you should trade with a bearish bias until such time as the target is achieved, and that you can bottom-fish there aggressively, albeit with a tight stop-loss, if you've been short on the way down.

Sellers appear to have exhausted themselves at yesterday's lows, which came within a hair of the 3573.75 Hidden Pivot target shown (see inset). The bounce thus far is bullishly impulsive on the lesser charts, most immediately via a rally leg concluded at 3:36 p.m. EDT that exceeded a small external peak at 3618.50 on the 3-minute. The move projects to 3629.75, a Hidden Pivot resistance that would become an odds-on shot above the 3619.25 midpoint resistance. You may need to zoom all the way down to the 1-minute bars or less to find an 'external' peak to leverage a long entry opportunity. ______ UPDATE (10:33 a.m. EDT):  The futures easily exceeded the target flagged above but have gone into untradable, headless-chicken spasms in  both directions since the opening bell.  A key 'external' peak at 1357.00 recorded yesterday remains untouched, a challenge to bulls -- or perhaps a taunt.

The insufferable tedium of the last week looks like it will be resolved with a finishing stroke to 3726.25, two ticks above the rally target given here previously. That's not far from yesterday's high, but given the relentless pooch-screwing of the last five days, even this modest target may be too ambitious for a single session.  _______ UPDATE (March 6, 7:07 p.m. EST): Interesting coincidence that this vehicle has gotten within a hair of the 3726.25 target at the same time the E-Mini S&P has kissed an equivalent target at 1881.50.

The futures exceeded our target yesterday by a decisive 10 points, implying that still higher prices are likely.  If so, we can try shorting once again at 3693.25, the target shown.  This can be done with a single-contract limit order, stop 3694.25, but you can step up the size to four contracts if you initiate the trade using camouflage that limit theoretical entry risk to no more than five ticks per contract. I'd encourage you to trade these targets even more aggressively if you are reversing a long position when they are reached.  Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. If the lower target is exceeded by more than two points, you should plan on getting long to 3738.75, the next and final Hidden Pivot created by the rally cycle begun on November 8. _______ UPDATE (10:52 p.m.): The impulsive downturn from nine points below the 3693 target is not a healthy sign. The short-term picture  would further darken if this selloff overshoots a 3626.50 Hidden Pivot support that is my minimum downside target for today (60m, a=3679 at 11 a.m., b=3645.25 at 4:00 p.m.)________ UPDATE (February 26, 1:03 a.m.): The selloff reversed from around 3638 -- 12 points above our danger threshold. Now the futures appear bound for at least 3725.75, a Hidden Pivot rally target associated with a midpoint resistance at 3682 that has gotten trounced (see inset). _______ UPDATE (February 26, 10:35 p.m.):  You can play for a bounce off the midpoint pivot, but keep in mind that point 'C' could change if this vehicle moves even slightly higher. If we are lucky enough to get a selloff down to p, it would provide an excellent opportunity to leg into a bull call spread.

The Nasdaq has punched through to new record highs. Although its tempting to dismiss this dubious milestone as the work of lunatics who recklessly manage Other People's Money and who believe that no price is too much to pay for the likes of Tesla, Netflix, Priceline, Twitter and other legendary companies of the New Millennium, the rally is proof that the game is not yet over.  The S&Ps and Industrial average seem all but certain to follow the Naz higher, and so we need to be prepared for whatever blow-off top impends. The rally could yet collapse, since a stock market trading in record territory generates the sort of fervor among bulls that blinds them to their own excesses. The prospect of a bull trap seems even more compelling, given that economic data from around the world has begun to dim ominously. While this might portend mere recession in ordinary times, it is a matter far more grave when a global slowdown could easily set in motion the deflationary implosion of a quadrillion-dollar, global house of cards. In any event, we'll be eager to short the 3674 target shown, since this 'Hidden Pivot' resistance is a technically logical place for the rally to fail.  However, if the resistance gives way easily, we'll simply keep trying -- always with the very tight stop-losses that the Hidden Pivot Method allows. FYI, the next appealing short would come at 3739 -- our minimum upside target if 3674 gives way. _______ UPDATE (February 17,  11:53 p.m.): The futures peaked on Friday just 1.50 points from our target, denying us an easy opportunity to get short safely ahead of a three-day weekend. If you did so nonetheless, you'll need to keep tabs on this critter Monday night. I'd suggest an impulse leg-based stop-loss derived from

If stocks are now involved in a bear-market rally within a bear-market rally, we might expect the Nasdaq futures to reverse at a level no higher than the hidden pivot at 1859.50.  But if that D target is surpassed by one point or more, only a pivot at 1877.50, derived from a lower "A" point, will stand in the way of new highs for the larger bear-market rally that began almost exactly a year ago.  _______ UPDATE (5:15 p.m. EST):  We got a bounce from 1859.00 which lasted two hours but gave us limited profit potential.  Subsequently the futures surpassed the 1859.50 target by almost three points, then pulled back substantially.  The 1877.50 target remains active.

A potential camouflaged entry signal was developing early Thursday morning, based on the pattern show in in the accompanying chart.  What is required to trigger a buying opportunity is a gentle probing above peak #1 (1608.00) that does surpass peak #2 (1609.00) without first pulling back the required 9.25 points (i.e., 0.618 of a k-A segment measuring 14.75 points).  I usually don't provide such abstruse details, but the trade has home-run potential if it meets the rather narrow set of parameters required, and I therefore wanted to provide enough information to allow experienced pivoteers to track it's development in the chat room.  _______ UPDATE (7:51 a.m. EDT): An overnight rally blew our camouflage opportunity to smithereens with an initial thrust to 1612.75 that easily exceeded both peaks shown in the chart. DaBoyz having failed to conceal the eagerness of buyers even when relatively few were watching, we should brace for more short-covering later this morning.

An hour or so before yesterday's close, a hawk-eyed pivoteer found the 1521.25 target show in the chart. Alas, the futures titillated with a last-minute push to 1520.25, leaving too little time to initiate a trade with any hope of exiting comfortably before the close with a gain. Even so, the analytical usefulness of the target remains, since, if it fails to contain short-covering this morning, we should brace for panic buying that could push the futures as high as _____ over the near term.  In case you're interested, that target comes from the hourly chart, where A=1346.00 (May 26).

If the futures make it down to _____, that's a Hidden Pivot support that will be  well worth bottom-fishing. An initial stop-loss as tight as ____ can be used, but switch to a 2.50-point trailing stop if the expected bounce hits _____. Minimum price objective: 1416.50.