E-Mini S&P

All signs pointed lower at day's end, although the presumptive target, the 1316.50 Hidden Pivot shown, has been too slow in coming to hold much appeal Alternatively, bulls would need to push this brick above the external peak at 1346.50 to show some life.

I like the 1323.00 target of the pattern shown enough to sanction bottom-fishing there with a stop-loss as tight as 1322.25. As always, camouflageurs will enjoy the best odds for capturing a tradable low near that Hidden Pivot, but less skillful players looking for an easy way in could do worse. If the order fills and I hear about it in the chat room, I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance.  Keep in mind that, with an initial theoretical risk of three ticks, you'll need to be in-the-black by at least nine ticks (i.e. 2.25 points, or $112.50) before taking a partial profit.  I haven't drum-rolled this trade in the chat room or under 'Today's Action', so consider it a relatively quiet opportunity.  Note to Pivoteers: The only way the pattern could have been improved is if the first B-C (from July 6) had obtained.

Monday's tired action changed nothing in the immediate forecast. From a technical standpoint, it merely extended a B-C correction that is capable of launching a rally to 1404.00.  If you're looking for a way to get long, I'd drop down to the three-minute chart when the 'x' trigger shown gets hit.  An alternative for night owls would be to attempt it on the 5-minute chart, were a promising abc uptrend was developing in subtle fashion arpund 5:45 p.m. EDT.  Want to learn how to do this stuff yourself? Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick’s Picks.

With bulls and bears locked in a tiresome duel on the hourly charts, traders can play either side of the market, but I'd suggest coming to the task with low expectations.  Early Monday morning, even the three-minute chart yielded no high-odds plays -- only a feeble-looking impulse leg followed by a useless succession of point 'C' lows. A run-up to a previously aired target at 1404.00 is still possible over the near term, but that number is losing its heft as a reason to attempt camouflage.

Yesterday's tired action lifted the futures to an interesting spot: i.e., a single tick from the 1362.50 target shown. The implication is that if the rally does not sputter out and die here, precisely -- if, in fact, it pushes past 1362.25 -- it could keep going all the way to 1404.00 over the near term.  The midpoint associated with that number is 1353.25, and so any pullback to it should be viewed as a buying opportunity via camouflage or with a tight stop-loss.  ________ UPDATE (July 5, 2:33 a.m. EDT):  The futures went on to reach 1370.00, shortening the odds of a further run-up to 1404.00. Camouflageurs should look to do their buying on a pullback to 1362.50.

On the hourly chart, three bullish patterns shown in the accompanying chart were driving this vehicle as last week drew to a close. The first, at 1360.50 is effectively spent since it's just two ticks above Friday's high.  Assuming the futures get past it Monday morning, the next lies at 1378.25 and thence 1398.75.  Judging from the ease with which the rally pushed past the 1337.75 midpoint pivot associated with the lower number, it's probably a done deal.  However, if it gives way easily we should expect the rally continue to the higher, implying a perhaps 350-point rally in the Dow. _______ UPDATE (11:16 a.m. EDT):  The futures are trading inconsequentially lower today, screwing the pooch until DaScumballs can get another short-squeeze going. With a Wednesday holiday to kill trading for the entire week, their task will be difficult but not impossible.  Look for more pooch-screwing in the day's ahead, leading to an attempt on Friday to goose stocks higher when volume has dried up to nearly nothing.

The near-term picture remains bearish despite yesterday's short-squeeze hysteria in the final hour. This is explained by the pattern shown. It has left us with precious little in the way of opportunity, so we'll plan on watching from the sidelines today as another week draws to a close. _______ UPDATE (11:14 a.m. EDT):  The futures wafted steadily higher during the night, effectively adding a C-D follow-through to the short-squeeze rally begun on the "news" from Europe.  The so-far high at 1350.50 has fallen within a single tick of the 1350.75 target of this in-your-face pattern on the 3-minute chart: A=1320.00 (10:50 p.m. on 6/28); B=1338.75 (at 11:05); and C=1332 at 11:10.

Although lower targets remain viable, the daily chart is bullish right now, dominated by the impulse leg shown. It implies a rally to 1362.50 that would be equivalent to a Dow surge of about 250 points. First, however, buyers would need to push this vehicle past the sibling midpoint at 1332.50. If they do just a little better, getting the futures to close above that number, shorts had better dive for cover ahead of the weekend. From a trading standpoint, a buy signal has already been tripped at 1317.50.  This effectively gives camouflageurs a green light for trading the lesser charts with a bullish bias today. ______ UPDATE (10:45 a.m.  EDT):  It was little more than a week ago that I declaimed we should attempt to short every stupid rally. Now, here I am looking to milk the last ounce of upside from just such a one before we lay 'em out.  We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that at this early stage of a bear market, rallies will tend to fall shy of their targets and that the hellacious declines will come more or less out of nowhere, on gaps that will appear to have been well nigh unshortable.

The futures were being manipulated lower in after-hours trading, creating a duel on the lesser charts but also depleting the ranks of sellers in order to set up a potential short squeeze. Bulls hold a small edge at the moment, but it's not enough to offer a compelling trade, even one initiated with camouflage. Although a 1296.00 downside target noted here earlier remains valid in theory, it has been too long in coming to be worth much.  Looking at a bigger picture, as noted here earlier, a decisive penetration of that support would likely consign the futures to a test of support near 1260, where the E-Mini S&P made a technically significant low in early June.