E-Mini S&P

Index futures have receded somewhat Sunday night after having peaked Friday an inch from the 1383.50 target I'd proffered. No one in the chat room mentioned having initiated a short at those levels, so I am not establishing a tracking position. Nevertheless, we may get another chance to do so if the futures complete last week's thrust with a feint to the 1392.25 target shown.  Camouflageurs can get short using the first downtrending abc from there on the 3-  or 5-minute chart, but if you'd like to take an easier route, try laying 'em out at the exact  target, stop 1393.25.   Consider that number a Sunday night secret. I have refrained from drum-rolling the 1392.25 target so that fewer imitators will be around if the opportunity to short it should arise.

Check out the daily chart if you think yesterday's 212-point blast was somehow significant. Yet one more hump in the making?  So it would seem.  If there is anything interesting about the series of gratuitous ups and downs going back to late May, it is that the current rally seems so likely to be the up-slope of yet another. Then again, maybe not.  Expectations can be dangerous in this game, the moreso if they verge on certitude. Contrarians can instantly see the challenge of second-guessing this particular move: Will it gut and disembowel those who go short just above mid-July's peak? Or will the rally reverse so sharply from just below it that even the bears who thought they were ready will be caught with their pants down? For my part, I'll continue to monitor impulse legs on the lesser charts so that I might better answer those questions and others. I'm also sticking with the minimum upside projection given here yesterday, 1378.25; or perhaps 1383.50 if any higher.  Both numbers can be shorted aggressively with tight stops or via camouflage.  _______ UPDATE:  Shorting the higher target would have worked out beautifully, since, even if it had been stopped as tightly as 1.00 point, the trade would have held.  On that basis, half the position needed to have been covered at 1380.50 on the 5-point pullback to 1378.00 that ensued.  Subsequent chop created a marginal new high at 1385.00 and a close at 1382.50. Under the circumstances, there was little reason to take the position home over the weekend, since it would be subject to the depradations of the usual arse-bandits, broad-tossers, child-molesters, goniffs, coprophagists and thimble-riggers who pray on Sunday nights' light-but-often-desperate traffic. A stop-loss

The weekly chart offers the most compelling picture for the near term, since it has three single-bar coordinates and a bearish impulse leg that meets all of our rules.  It projects to 1226.50, but we'll want to try bottom-fishing via camouflage near the 1301.25 midpoint support -- my minimum downside objective for the near term.   Night owls looking to get short will have to contend with a series of dueling impulse legs on the intraday charts. Under the circumstances, your best bet may be to go against the trend, tightly stopped, at a D target on the five-minute chart. _______ UPDATE (July 26, 1:50 p.m. EDT): Because the futures have moved higher this week, I've refreshed the chart to show a bullish target at 1383.50 that has been in gestation since June 12, the day the 'X' entry price at 1318.75 was triggered.  If the target is achieved it will have been a long time in coming, but it remains valid nonetheless. It is also a logical spot to try shorting very aggressively. Please note that there is an alternative target at 1378.25, based on the one-off point 'A' at 1260.75; and still others, at higher levels, based on the B-C pairings shown in purple and orange.

The futures are falling after having gotten no higher than 1376.00 -- fully ten points shy of the 1386.25 target I'd been using as a minimum upside projection for this phase of the Mother of All Bear Rallies.  Strictly speaking, that target and a couple of others ranging up to 1397.75 remain valid. However, at the instinctual level, perhaps because I've been waiting since summer began for the stock market to drop the hell dead, I am tempted to believe that shares are about to take a very nasty tumble.  Regardless, I'll be closely monitoring the hourly chart for clues. Most immediately, a print at 1385.25 today would signal that buyers are back on the attack, while a fall to 1296.75 in the days ahead would suggest the contrary -- i.e., that sellers are gaining momentum. The significance of both numbers is shown in the chart.

Granted, the futures did what we asked of them yesterday, pushing above four prior peaks on the lesser charts to create a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart.  But when they gamely pushed for a few extra yards, they stalled a hair below a fifth peak at 1592.30 (15m, 12:45 p.m. on July 17), losing their nerve -- and momentum. And now, early Friday morning, they are repeating this display of timidity, having failed by two ticks to exceed the look-to-the-left peak at 1585.10 (3 min, 1:24 p.m., July 19) highlighted in the chart. Accordingly, our bias should be moderately bearish for the very near term, tied to the 1570.90 downside target shown.  Camouflageurs can short off the 3-minute chart -- but also bottom-fish at p (1577.90) and/or D.  Learn how to use 'camouflaged' entry signals to dramatically reduce risk. Click here to find out about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar and get a $50 discount coupon on the home page.

After a day of meaningless ups and downs, the futures were drifting toward the lower end of the range early Friday morning.  There were two reasons to think a bullish turn was imminent, however: the 1367.00 'D' target shown, and the implied structural support of Thursday's intraday low. Night owls can attempt to leverage the former, which so far has held as the overnight low.  I'd suggest using the 3-minute chart for camouflage, since there are some nicely formed external peaks starting at around 10:15 p.m. EDT.  Keep in mind that you'll be shooting for gains of as much as 30 points, based on the topmost target of several given here earlier. They lie within an 11-point range, the first of them at 1386.25, and the next at 1388.00.

We're looking to get short at 1386.25 or above, but the trade will need to be initiated via camouflage since there are three other closely spaced 'D' targets above it that could mark the eventual top.  They lie, respectively, at 1388.00, 1392.75 and 1397.75 (see inset) and are shown in the accompanying chart.  Odds that the futures will reach the topmost Hidden Pivot before reversing sharply are probably no worse than even, because the Big Picture rally begun in December of 2011 recently exceeded its 1368.00 midpoint resistance by 7 points.  Night owls should trade from the long side, using the 5-minute chart for leverage. Shortly after 2 a.m. EDT, the futures were looking pretty feisty, reaching the 'p' midpoints of most minor rally patterns.

Yesterday's wholly gratuitous swoon catalyzed a short-squeeze that has carried well above the 1353.00 midpoint resistance flagged here earlier. That will shorten the odds of a follow-through in the days ahead to 1386.25, its 'D' sibling.  Because the target has been confirmed by a stall precisely at the midpoint, it is shortable either via camouflage or a tight stop-loss. More immediately, your trading bias should be bullish, possibly using either of the two 'external' peaks shown in the chart to get aboard via camouflage.

A slightly altered picture (see inset) has brought a crucial midpoint resistance down a point to 1353.00, but the implication is the same: If it is exceeded on a closing basis, the futures will be signaling an imminent surge to as high as 1386.25, its 'D' sibling. Please note that Friday's stall precisely at p confirms the target itself as well as the likelihood of its being reached if and when p has been decisively bettered.  ______ UPDATE (July 16, 7:44 p.m. EDT): No change. It'll still take a close above 1353.00 to trigger off another big rally.