E-Mini S&P

For all the headless-chicken hysterics of the last week, this vehicle seems to desire nothing more than a rendezvous with the 1332.75 low recorded on March 6. We'll sit back and let it do its stupid, pointless thing today, since the billboard-obvious structural support represented by 1332.75 will take precedence over any Hidden Pivots other than those within minor patterns.

The bounce from yesterday's stage-managed low was picking up speed in after-hours trading.  However, as of 10:38 p.m., buyers were stalled at the 1356.50 midpoint resistance of the pattern shown.  Because the so-far shallow pullback is from a legitimate point 'B' high of a bullish impulse leg, there may be an opportunity for night owls to get long via camouflage to a presumptive 'D' target at 1367.25.  The chart shows which pattern to use. _______ UPDATE (12:44 p.m.):  The tradable pattern I'd sketched never developed; instead, the futures spent the night screwing the pooch.  When the opening bell rang, the best Da Dirtballs could muster by way of a short squeeze was 1363.75, a dubious noon-achievement that will put the futures in limbo, probably, till the final hour.

Bulls shouldn't get their hopes too high, since yesterday's earnest-looking rebound came in the wake of a 1342.50 low that exceeded a clear Hidden Pivot target by four points. That's bearish, so traders should position from the short side Tuesday night. Most immediately, that could entail, for example,  finding on the 1-minute chart a southbound abc from the midpoint or D rally target of the still-developing pattern shown. More easily accomplished, perhaps, would be a straight short at the 'x' of a very minor downtrend.

The world's bourses needn't have freaked Sunday night merely because Europe's elections effectively ratified fringe socialism.  Here in the U.S., cooler heads prevailed in the quasi-criminal redoubts of Sunday-night trading. It was left to these off-hours scalawags to save the day, and so they did -- with larcenous bids so far below the market that even Armageddon could not have forced prices much lower.  The effect was to exhaust sellers before the opening bell on Monday, clearing  the way for an 80-point rebound that must have left the world with the impression of America as a fortress against the dark forces of economic fear and doubt that have roiled Europe. Nevertheless, we'll trust the rally only insofar as we are able to monitor its vital signs each step of the way (much as we have been doing in Apple). Thus is our interest likely to mount as the futures begin to roll down into a telltale 'C-D' leg. I've sketched this in the chart, filling in a hypothetical midpoint pivot that can tell us whether the rally from Monday's bear-trap low has been mere bravado.  It'll be a great place to try bottom-fishing via camouflage in any case, but if the trade doesn't produce a satisfying win, look out below, since the 'D' target of the pattern will be in play.  Stay tuned for detailed guidance. If you would like to be alerted to trading opportunities in real time, check the 'E-Mail Notifications' box on your account page.  Click here for a free 7-day trial to Rick's Picks

It's early Sunday evening, and the futures have opened 2.00 points lower than the lowest Hidden Pivot target available on the hourly chart. This means they are probing for support near a key bottom at 1332.75 recorded on March 6.  Since camouflage is so well suited to determining precisely whence the all-but-inevitable upturn will occur (even if from beneath 1332.75), night owls should look to do their bottom-fishing on the one-minute chart -- the first place where there are any 'external' peaks to use for a grip.  (Let me mention that even on the one-minute, such peaks leave something to be desired, since they are not preceded by distinctive lows).  I've labeled a few such peaks on the accompanying chart for your further guidance. _______ UPDATE (11:43 a.m. EDT):  There were numerous entry signals to try, none worth a damn. The best of a bad lot came around 3:30 a.m. off a bear-trap point 'C' that was just too scary to use. The  entire rally from the overnight low has yet to produce an impulse leg; that would take a print at 1368.75.  A 'b-c' pullback from a tick or two above that number can be used by camouflageurs to get long. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (3:01 p.m.):  The Cubes have rebounded sharply, allowing us to close out half the position @ 1.25, three cents off the so-far recovery high.  Imputing the gains thereof to the half of the position that remains gives us an effective cost basis of 0.81 per contract.

Positioning trades was challenging on this particular morning, since the broad averages were only moderately lower on appalling economic news. Europe was sinking further into recession, U.S. factory orders had taken their steepest dive in three years, and the private economy had created only 119,000 new jobs in April. Our approach was cautiously bullish nonetheless, and we considered a strategy for bottom-fishing in the E-Mini S&Ps on the assumption they would recover later in the day. An actual trade was signaled in Silver Wheaton as we watched, although the signal turned out to have been based on inattentiveness to the ‘Rodney Dangerfield’ of our short list of rules.

A rally target at 1439.50 remains our lodestone, although, to put it mildly, the trek has not been an easy one for bulls. Night owls looking for a 'camouflage' entry opportunity should try leveraging a p midpoint like the one shown, assuming things play more or less out as sketched.

One fleeting, hysterical short-squeeze at a time, the futures are working their way toward the 1439.50 rally target first broached here a while back.  Getting long will understandably be a bitch; but short, maybe not so difficult.  Notice that, for all the hubris and hoopla surrounding these rallies, they are actually enslaved to the cosmic order from which Hidden Pivots are derived.  In that regard, see for yourself how yesterday's rally precisely achieved the 1411.75 target of the pattern shown -- not one tick more, nor one tick less. Rather be a trader than a lurker? Click here to learn how.

With a 1439.50 rally target theoretically still in play, your trading bias should be bullish at the moment. That said, camouflageurs should take extra care getting long at these levels, since the lesser charts are impulsively bearish. The thumbnail chart shows three 'external' peaks from just above which a 'B-C' pullback would be enticing. The camo pattern in progress when this chart was created looked too tired to use. Click here for information about the June Hidden Pivot Webinar.