E-Mini S&P

It doesn't take a technical genius to see where this rally is headed: 1439.55. That's the 'D' target of the pattern shown, and it would become an odds-on shot once the futures have closed for two consecutive days above the p midpoint, 1396.00. Camouflageurs should have a field day getting long, since even on the hourly charts there are 'externals' and 'look-the-lefters' galore.

The futures were off and limping yesterday, tacking on another six points of upside not long after the regular session ended.  The move was impulsively bullish on the hourly chart, although the surge looks too powerful to get us aboard risklessly by stealth.  My hunch is that the winning entry will come at the second signaled point 'x' of the still-undetermined pattern shown. Rather be a trader than a lurker? Click here to learn how.

An amusing coincidence: I was posting to the Rick’s Picks forum a moment ago about how exchange trading has come to resemble a sleazy carnival operation, and lo, the E-Mini S&Ps have shot up six points in mere seconds. This was an after-hours move – the best time to stage these heists, since there is little legitimate buying or selling to get in the way of the perpetrators. I don’t wish to insult carny operators by comparing them to exchange dealers and market makers, by the way, since the guys and gals who work the midway at least come face to face with the rubes they are ripping off.  Not in the world of electronic trading, though.  The pros who are doing the fleecing operate under a veil of secrecy that can be lifted only by securities regulators or the FBI. The forum thread concered trading against phantom bids and offers that seem to be there only when you don’t need them.  Café Americain’s Jesse had posted the following at his own blog: “I am not trading nearly as frequently or aggressively as in the past because a) I am getting older b) these markets are almost ridiculous. It’s like playing cards with the little girls. If I put in an order for a few thousand shares, the liquidity from a large offered set of multiple positions evaporates instantly and I close on maybe 100 shares. If I offer to buy above market but below ask I get ten ‘friends’ appearing instantly along with my bid.” Phantom Markets Just so. This has been our experience as well, mainly in the equity option markets. On a Level 2 trading screen, one might see 5000-up bids and offers for call options that rarely trade. So who would be offering thousands of them,

Yesterday's gratuitous swoon, partially recouped in the final hour, carved out an unappealingly obvious low that lay less than two points from the April 10 bottom, 1352.50. From a Hidden Pivot perspective, we are left with the equally unappetizing pattern shown, a bearish tableau projecting to 1324.75.  Getting short might be difficult, but tightly-stopped bottom-fishing could work at the still undetermined midpoint of the developing pattern shown.  _______ UPDATE (10:18 a.m. EDT):  The futures got nowhere remotely near a 1354.50 midpoint support when they looped over. This is bullish for today.

The futures were showing signs of weakness Sunday night, falling beneath a midpoint support at 1372.75 that's tied to a 'D' target at 1362.25 (60m, A=1386.50 on 4/19 at 11 a.m. EDT). If the opportunity should arise, you can bottom-fish that last number with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks(!), or via camouflage if you are so equipped. Volume was exceedingly light, so be prepared if DaSleazeballs decide to manipulate this vehicle beyond the usual bounds of normalcy.  As of around 10:46 p.m. EDT, the first place the short-term picture (i.e., two-minute chart) would turn bullish would be at 1375.75.  Indeed, a 'b-c' pullback from just above that number could provide an excellent opportunity for camouflageurs to get long. _______ UPDATE (11:47 a..m. EDT): The futures fell steadily overnight, crushing the 1357.75 Hidden Pivot midpoint support of an even larger, bearish pattern than the one noted above.  This implies more weakness to its 'D' sibling, at least: 1324.75.  Rather be a trader instead of a lurker! Click here to learn how.

If the dam breaks, putting an end to this potential cinder block's oh-so-coy behavior during the last two weeks, we'd be looking at a fall to 1324.75 in a trice. (How refreshing would that be?)  The p midpoint support lies at 1357.25, and that's where camouflageurs should look for a tradable pattern to develop on charts of  5-minute degree or less. If two or more traders report a fill in the chat room, I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance.  Hey, why not be a trader instead of a lurker! Click here.

A little more backing and filling and the futures should be primed for a C-D follow-through to Tuesday's manic thrust. Traders should seek entry via camouflage at the 'X' trigger of a pattern similar to the one shown.  The location of X is as yet undetermined because there is no valid point 'C' so far.  Please note as well that the 1395.25 target of a larger pattern noted here earlier remains valid.

With a small thrust at day's end, the futures finally generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. However, we shouldn't overlook the fact that this occurred within a larger, bearish pattern on the daily chart (A=1352.50 on 4/10).  Under the circumstances, bulls should exercise more caution than bears despite yesterday's strong rally. Notice that a move to the 'D' rally target would bring the June contract into a cluster of external peaks, each of which could provide a technical rationale for getting long via camouflage. I'll leave it to you to sort out the opportunities overnight, since it's impossible to predict exactly how any rally might act relative to the cluster of external peaks.

Yesterday's soporific performance left nothing to entice, let alone compel, us to trade. If the futures are momentarily too tired to try to out-think traders -- how refreshing would that be? -- we might look for them to drift lower until they meet with the obvious support of the 1332.75 low recorded on March 6. Alternatively, buyers would need to goose this vehicle above 1385.25 to turn the hourly chart unambiguously bullish once again. _______ UPDATE (11:32 a.m. EDT):  This morning's manic short-squeeze has pushed the futures to a so-far high of 1384.50 -- about as far as they can go without looking impressive or signaling anything of technical significance. Assuming DaBoyz seize the advantage an eventually maneuver this vehicle above the 1385.25 threshold noted above, we'd be looking at a further run-up to 1394.50 (15m, A=1353.25 on 4/10, and B=1388.50 on 4/12).  Once 1385.25 has been surpassed, a pullback to the p midpoint at 1376.75 should be regarded as a great buying opportunity -- presumably via camouflage.