E-Mini S&P

Usually it's easy to discover a Hidden Pivot 'reason', after the fact, for whatever highs and lows exist on a chart. In this case, however, Monday's bombed-out low occurred in a place that would seem to make little sense. And that's why I'm going to take the bounce it generated seriously -- i.e., because it has come out of Nowheres-ville, seemingly oblivious to any technical levels that I am aware of.   A rally to the green line would generate a very enticing signal to get short 'mechanically,' but we'll deal with that if and when the opportunity arises.  For now, if you want to get long with risk very tightly controlled, I'd suggest crafting a 'camouflage' entry trigger on the five-minute chart or less. This chart illustrates one such hypothetical possibility. _______ UPDATE (April 2, 5:25 p.m. EDT): A tedious 'inside day' has left the analysis and outlook above unchanged.

Today's exhilarating reversal took bulls and bears alike by surprise when, instead of reversing on short-covering in the final hour, sellers quickened their tempo until the closing bell. The chart shows why we have put so much faith in Amazon to tell us what is on the fevered brains of its institutional sponsors at any given moment.  Ricks Picks subscribers began the day with 1576.63 rally target that lay $20 above Monday's close. In the actual event, Amazon surged overnight to within 66 cents of the target before plummeting $93 intraday. Put options that could have been purchased for as little as $2 on the opening fetched as much as $41 later in the session.  The stock ended the day pennies from the 1482.59 target shown in this chart. If it gives way, the next place I would look for a bounce is 1464.89, [Note:  This number, originally given as 1463.41, has been corrected.] a Hidden Pivot support derived from these coordinates on the hourly chart:  a=1606.44 on 3/14; b=1495.36 on 3/23. _______ UPDATE (March 28, 7:10 p.m.): Ordinarily I would be cynically dismissive of AMZN's plunge today, since it came on supposed news that we've heard before -- i.e., that Trump thinks Amazon is too powerful and that he wants to 'do something' about it.  But what if investors were to dismiss the sell-off as a con-job engineered by the usual sleazeballs to shake loose some bargain shares? That would make them bullish right now -- the moreso if the stock were to reverse this week's steep slide and start looking like its old world-beating self again. I am going to keep these crazy thoughts foremost in my mind if AMZN seems to revive with vigor.  I can't think of a more effective way for Mr. Market to trap

The S&P futures look more likely to rally or remain buoyant than to collapse any time soon. Actually bears would find themselves in trouble if the futures were to rally above the 2744.00 peak from March 21 that lies just above the green line (see inset).  That would equate to a thousand-point Dow rally, and although it's hardly a given at this point, we shouldn't be so dismissive of the possibility that we would tend to overlook early signs of a short-covering build-up.  It can start with modest energy, mutating into full panic as rallies approach prior peaks. For now, it would take a two-day close or a decisive intraday breach of p2=2573.44 to imply the futures are headed to the 2495.50 target. It was given here earlier as a minimum bear-cycle projection and remains viable.

Further tankage to the 2495.50 target shown seems a foregone conclusion, although the glacial pace of the descent is at times something to marvel at. Most of the distance will be traversed in mere hours, as we know, with the perhaps many days in-between working ceaselessly to disabuse traders of the notion that they can profit from something so obvious. Or is it? I'd temporarily shelve the bearish case if the futures were to rally above the 2744.00 peak that occurred on March 21. But anything shy of that would be just noise, as far as I'm concerned -- a side show to distract us from the possibility that, yes, maybe the bull market is finally over. However, we know not to let a mere rally to new record highs negate this suspicion.  In fact, and as I've mentioned here before, it would be the perfect way for Mr. Market to set the hook.  No matter what happens, I can assure you we'll never be so distracted that there will be any confusion about the trend.

Monday's low got nowhere near the 2544.00 Hidden Pivot I'd offered as a minimum downside target.  Although the futures dove 40 points, to 2602.00, in the opening hours of the regular session, this was simply to inspire fear in bulls who'd had such an easy waft higher overnight. When the June contract finally reversed upward around 11:30 a.m., it went on a 70-point tear that was virtually unbroken by any significant pullbacks. This tells us that shorts are caught badly and that the rally is likely to continue into the night.  The 15-minute chart shown suggests buyers will reach at least 2695.00 if they can blow past p=2675.25.

Sellers crushed the 2631 midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart, significantly shortening the odds of a further plunge to as low as 2456.50.  Any worse than that seems unlikely over the near term because the target is so clear, but we should use p2=2544 regardless as our minimum downside objective for the near term. A rally back up to the green line would trigger a 'mechanical' short, stop 2807.50, but it seems unlikely that we'll be gifted with such an opportunity. Under the circumstances, any shorts initiated Sunday evening or Monday morning should be based on downtrending 'camouflage' ABCs of lesser degree.  Start with patterns like this one, then zoom down to a 5-minute-or-less chart to create 'camouflage' entry set-ups with initial risk under very tight control.

The June contract was getting whacked hard Thursday night, down as much as 26 points earlier this evening.  This is bullish as far as it goes, since it suggests DaBoyz are desperate to exhaust sellers ahead of the opening bell.  That would allow them to goose stocks sharply higher in the opening minutes of Friday's session, using whatever short-covering panic they can stir up to push stocks to rich valuations before the bottom drops out again.  My hunch is that any buying will be too feeble to spook shorts and that the broad averages will be trading significantly lower than they are now when the week ends. The biggest short-squeeze rally we are likely to see will come in the final hour on Friday. That's because DaBoyz will not want to press their luck trying to get a major short squeeze going earlier in the day.

The futures finished well off their lows Monday, but that didn't negate the short sale that was triggered at the green line (click on inset).  We'll wait for a 'mechanical' signal before we jump aboard, but we can still use the 2631.88 midpoint pivot shown as a minimum downside target for the near term. This differs by less than a point from a downside target given here last week. We should also remain open-minded to the possibility that shorts will shoot themselves in the foot yet again, chasing this brick above the 2807.25 peak recorded on March 13.  That would be the fourth time they've stopped themselves out by exceeding a high recorded since early February's mini-crash. Otherwise, a plunge to the red line can tell us with a high degree of confidence whether the weakness begun in the final days of 2017 is the start of a bear market or just a garden-variety correction.  The former would become more likely if the initial breach of the red line is decisive. And if the red line were to be exceeded via a selling gap, that would raise the odds that a bear market had begun to about 75%, in my estimation. ________ UPDATE (March 20, 7:21 p.m. EDT):  An inconsequential day, it changed nothing said above. ______ UPDATE (March 21, 7:34 p.m.): And now, yet another.

The flatulence that ended the week rendered the markets too uninteresting, even, to keep us guessing.  We'd have a better chance of detecting excitement putting our ear to the ground at a cemetery. It was that kind of Friday.  I'd suggested here earlier that a dull day could be prelude to a 'Pearl Harbor attack' on Sunday night. Yes, that would be lovely indeed, since it's been a while since the Masters of the Universe have gotten more than slightly bruised, let alone bloodied. But it would probably take a very unsettling headline to start things rolling, since the charts themselves have practically flat-lined.  There's no point in our trying to predict the news, but please note that the usual mayhem -- i.e., "Shooter kills 117, film at 6:00!!" -- is unlikely to cause much of  stir in the heartless precincts of Wall Street.