E-Mini S&P

DIA is on a 'counterintuitive' buy signal tripped in the opening minutes of Tuesday's session. With an upbeat close, the ETF looked like an odds-on bet to reach the 206.83 midpoint Hidden Pivot Wednesday morning. My gut feeling is that the rally's potential is limited, and that's why we're focused on shorting into moderate strength. Accordingly, I'll recommend bidding 0.68 for four April 21 205 puts, day order. This price should be do-able if DIA rallies hits the red line. I've pegged the bid to a trendline that has caught two lows over the last week. I've also allowed for the fact that this is a four-day week, shortened by the Good Friday holiday. This means premiums for options expiring the following Friday will begin their death dive Wednesday afternoon, and that's why you shouldn't pay up. I'm not suggesting a stop-loss for the puts because I'd rather take them home over the weekend than blow them out for bupkus if DIA ends the day at D=208.71. That'd be another tempting place to get short, so there's no point in abandoning the position. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 8:18 p.m. ET): Two days of feeble price action has further distanced DIA from the 206.83 rally target where we'd hoped to buy some puts. We won't chase them, but you can still plan to bid them in case DIA surprises on Thursday by rallying to the target. You'll probably need to raise the bid a smidgen from 0.68, since the options look like they will trade no lower than around 0.75-0.80 unless DIA moves significantly higher.

The futures have been stuck in a tight range for two weeks, inflicting pain, tedium and frustration on bulls and bears alike. The snarky feints that pass for price movement these days could challenge even the nimblest of day traders. With the bull market now in its ninth year,  however, we should seek to leverage the rallies rather than the declines. At the moment, that means focusing on the pattern shown and its 2439.00 target. There's little reason to think the futures won't get there, since they haven't failed to reach an important rally target since 2008. Pivoteers will notice that the futures have been on a mechanical 'buy' signal since last Monday, when they returned to the green line after hovering well above it for a week. In retrospect, we should be glad we didn't get long then, since we'd have been roundly thrashed without having gotten stopped out. Now, we can use the red line to facilitate a 'mechanical ' entry on our terms if and when the time comes, but we should also be prepared to seize the opportunity if the futures take off Sunday evening. A ' camouflage' pattern like the one I've sketched (see inset) would be ideal for this if you work the night shift, so consider the chart a heads-up. _______ UPDATE (Apr 11, 6:45 p.m. ET): More of the same. On the remote chance that the futures actually fall without the obligatory bullish reversal into day's end, you can use 2303.75 as a target.  It can be found on the 60-minute chart, using A=2388.75 from 3/16.

On Wednesday the E-Mini S&Ps tripped a promising 'mechanical' short when they plunged through the green line at 2359.75 (see inset).  This evening, odds of the futures achieving a 2314.00 target 46 points below the trigger point shortened on news that the U.S. had attacked Syria with cruise missiles. I'd flagged a 'mechanical' short from 2359.75 Wednesday night. However, because only one subscriber reported having done the trade, I did not establish a tracking position.  Even so, if you are short from near Thursday's high, I'd recommend taking profits on half the position at p=2344.00. (The futures are currently trading four points lower.) Since the target is sufficiently clear and compelling to use for tightly stopped bottom-fishing, I'd further suggest covering any remaining shorts if and when it is reached. An additional reason for doing so is that, these days, traders are so full of bravado that all-out war in the Middle East is probably good for no more than a few hours of hard selling.

Worried by Fed murmurings, index futures took a spill at day's end after failing by four points to hit a bullish 'trigger' threshold at 2378.75 flagged in a tout sent out Tuesday night. The selloff is mildly impulsive so far on the hourly chart, but a further fall of just five more points from current levels to 2333.25 would significantly increase the power of the downtrend. There are no appetizing trading opportunities at the moment, but this could change overnight. The futures have been down by as much as 8.50 points this evening, but DaBoyz still seem to be groping for a bottom where sellers are exhausted. Wherever that low occurs, it's a safe bet that it will generate a short-squeeze attempt.  If that occurs before the opening bell, it would have bearish implications for Thursday. Incidentally, the June contract was a juicy 'counterintuitive' short at 2359.25 late in the day off this pattern: 60-min, a=2378.75 on March 21.  It's never too soon to start thinking about 'CI' trades in reverse. We've gotten too used to buying the rallies.

One can only guess at what the futures will do on Wednesday, since there are two distinctive patterns, one bullish, the other bearish, in conflict on the hourly chart. It's tempting to flip a coin, but I'll go out on a limb and predict the June contract will be trading lower come Friday.   That implies that the pattern shown will carry the day, perhaps even if buyers are able to push above its 2366.50 point 'c'.  But not if the intraday high surpasses the external peak I've labeled at 2378.75.  Bears should scramble for cover if that happens, since it would put the 2439.00 target of the much larger, bullish pattern in play.

The futures swooned Monday to a low that negated the 2375.75 rally target we'd been using. That benchmark was small potatoes, and the fact that the June contract wasn't able to achieve so very modest a goal after three days of trying suggests that buyers are a little more fatigued than may be obvious. Granted, they did waft this brick into the close, recouping most of the modest losses suffered earlier in the session. But we should keep our guard up on Tuesday nonetheless with a dose of skepticism. The first clue that bears might be about to shed some of their wonted timidity would come on a decisive downside penetration of the 2346.63 midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown.  The pattern is tradable in all the usual ways, short or long, but for starters night owls could use a 2346.75 bid, stop 2345.75, to bottom-fish. If the order fills, you'll be on your own. ________  UPDATE (Apr 4, 9:25 a.m. ET): Overnight, the futures took a 4.50-point bounce from within two ticks of the hidden support I'd flagged above; then they relapsed. Since I don't know how I would have traded this one myself, I won't presume to know how you may have traded it. Regardless, the 2335.75 downside target is very much in play, notwithstanding the so-far weak short-squeeze DaBoyz are attempting to stir up ahead of the opening bell.

Friday's flatulence put a disappointing end to an otherwise impressive week that began with a wrenching, two-day short-squeeze. We'll likely know by Sunday night whether the weakness is serious, but the failure of buyers to reach the minor, 2375.75 rally target shown in the chart was not a healthy sign.  Bulls could negate it with a push past it that also clears the 2378.75 'external' peak that I've labeled. Alternatively, if the futures were to fall beneath C=2348.75 without having reached the rally target, that would signal probable weakness for at least the next two days. And if they should fall without having exceeded last week's 2366.75 high, expect the downtrend to hit 2336.25 before the trend reverses.

Tuesday’s ballistic surge reamed bears a new orifice. It also left no room for doubt about which direction the futures will be headed for the remainder of the week. Accordingly, I will now ask you to consider a rally pattern that implies new all-time highs are coming, probably within the next 7-10 days. If the 2439.00 target is reached, that would equate to a Dow rally of about 800 points. There’s always a chance the 2378.38 midpoint pivot (see inset) will stop the rampaging herd in its tracks. But I wouldn’t encourage betting on it. Instead, we’ll focus on buy-side opportunities in the days ahead, using the green, red and pink lines as needed to set up some low-risk entry triggers. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time, since there are more than a few Pivoteers who will know how to make hay with such a promising picture. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 7:28 p.m. EDT):  There was just enough buying interest today to torture bears with a steady drip...drip...drip of upticks. The rally projects to 2375.75 most immediately (click here for chart), although we should keep the much bigger picture in mind, tied to the 2439.00 target given above, if the futures continue to push through lesser targets with ease. Night owls can buy a dip to the green line (2355.50) 'mechanically', but we'll want to consider a 'camouflage' alternative if this occurs during regular trading hours. If you do the trade, be sure to take a partial profit at p=2362.25. _______ UPDATE (Mar 30, 5:23 p.m.): Any subscriber who followed the simple advice above, placing a bid at the green line, could have come away with a profit of as much as $500 per contract. The trade could have been initiated at any time between

Bears were their own worst enemy Monday, allowing themselves to get caught in a short-squeeze frenzy that recouped nearly all of the exhilarating, 25-point plunge that had begun the day. When stocks where hitting their lows in pre-dawn trading, it was apparent that the poor mugs couldn't believe their own good fortune. If only they could have kept their cool.  Even so, the panic-induced bounce failed to generate much of an impulse leg on the hourly chart (see inset), and that's why the 2309.50 downside target sent out Sunday night remains intact, at least in theory.  The futures would become a 'mechanical' short if they hit the green line Monday night or Tuesday; however, because the opening will always be unpredictable, I'm not recommending the trade unless it's initiated via either of two risk-averse entry tactics we use: 'camouflage' or 'counterintuitive'. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance, since at any given time, there are quite a few Hidden Pivot experts who will know just what to do.