E-Mini S&P

The futures pushed to the very top of a range where we might have expected considerable resistance. Now, if they don't retreat precipitously on Monday from their highs, look for the rally to continue to at least 2910.00 (see inset). That would equate to a Dow rally of about 300 points. However, it would also fall at least 250 points shy of the 27251 target we've been using to stay confidently on the right side of a trend that has gone on for far too long without correcting. The bullish pattern looks straightforward and reliable, but I am not recommending shorting its target unless you've racked up at least 5-10 points of profits on the way up. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 7:59 p.m.): The futures did indeed retreat, although we'll need to see quite a bit more than the 23-point drop that has occurred so far before we blow taps for the nine-year-old bull market. In fact, the decline has yet to surpass even a single prior low on the hourly chart, let alone the two we require to signal the creation of a bearish impulse leg. That would take a print at 2822.50. I expect index futures to fall at least somewhat overnight and to open weak, but it's anyone's guess whether the buy-the-dips crowd will step in around mid-morning if stocks get hit badly, since old habits die hard.  In any case, I'd suggest watching from the sidelines.

The futures on Wednesday somewhat exceeded a 2848.25 target I'd mentioned here, topping intraday at 2855.25. Ordinarily I would regard this overshoot, although small, as distinctly bullish. In this case, however, I will allow for the possibility that a 2868.50 target that shows up on the composite weekly chart (click on inset) is going to repel bulls, at least for a while and in potentially tradable fashion. I cannot give you a penny-precise target, since the ABC coordinates on the composite chart come from different months. However, I expect to see real stopping power within perhaps 4-7 points either way of 2868.50. We shall soon see.

Just when a rally to a middling Hidden Pivot target had begun to look all but certain, the futures vexatiously fail to deliver. They'll have another chance on Friday, but we should be open to the possibility of a multi-day decline that puts the target at least temporarily out of reach.  Regardless, and unless the broad averages sell off hard for a week, we still have two Hidden Pivot objectives in play:  2824.00, or 2848.25 if any higher. I've included a long-term chart (click on inset) that shows a third, well-defined target at 2868.50. The chart is a blended composite, so the target should not be expected to work precisely. However, it is close enough to the 2848.25 target given above to imply there's considerable stopping power somewhere in-between.  Meanwhile, I'm as curious as you are to see how stocks behave ahead of the weekend, so let's simply enjoy the show and try to glean what we can from it. ________ UPDATE (Jan 21, 5:03 p.m. EST): Friday's moderate rally did not change my outlook or the analysis given above.  _______ UPDATE (Jan 22, 8:23 p.m.):  Still no change.  The rally is too steep at this point to catch a ride, unless perhaps by way of a 'camouflage' set-up that would require your diligent attention to the 5-minute (or less) chart.

Buyers did something on Tuesday that we don't see very often these days, pausing for a few hours in their manic scramble to own every share they can get their hands on. Bears, with the wind at their backs for a rare change, failed for the umpteenth time to seize the advantage. When the dust settled, the futures had closed off a whopping nine points after being down as much as 20 points intraday. Oh well. Since a second day of accelerating weakness seems most unlikely, we'll stick with the 2824.00 rally target given here earlier -- or 2848.25 if any higher. Buyers can use a 'mechanical' set-up to generate a bid near the red line (p=2725.25), but I'd suggest using 'camouflage' on the one- or three-minute chart to do the actual trade, since the entry risk otherwise would be $2016 theoretical per contract.  Stay close to the chat room if you seek guidance for this in real time.  If the stock market startles by going lower we can sit back and enjoy the show, since many subscribers still hold soon-to-expire VXX calls purchased a couple of weeks ago for an average o.67. If the broad averages sell off as hard as they did for a while on Tuesday, those calls could triple in value in an hour. ______ UPDATE (Jan 17, 4:22 p.m.): No change. At the rate stocks are climbing, the E-Mini S&Ps should reach the 2824.00 target by no later than early Friday. It would equate to a 500-point rally in the Dow.  Of course, none of us will be the least bit surprised when the target is reached, but what might surprise some observers is how quickly this will have occurred. Please note that once 2824.00 has been exceeded by more than 1.50 points, the 2848.25

The futures appear bound for a minimum 2782.25 (see inset), but if that Hidden Pivot resistance fails to restrain buyers for more than a few hours, look for the rally to continue to the next such target, at least: 2824.00.  Pivoteers familiar with the tactic can use a 'camouflage' set-up to get long on a pullback to the pink line (2738.25). But if you prefer a 'mechanical' entry, bid for one contract there (i.e., at 2738.25), stop 2723.50. _______ UPDATE (Jan 15, 6:16 p.m.): Buyers ripped through the 2782.25 pivot with such force that the rally is almost certain to continue to at least 2824.00. If that Hidden Pivot resistance gives way easily too, use 2848.25 as an alternative. It would be the toughest impediment the futures have encountered in months.

Friday's powerful rally peaked to-the-exact-tick at the 2743.25 target I'd proffered. With a 'top' of sorts in, is it now safe for bears to come out of hiding?  Hardly. The target would have made for an enticing short if it had been achieved earlier in the session. As things stand, however, shorting there on the closing bell would have been much riskier, since bears were left hanging on the ropes, presumably anxious about Sunday evening's opening. Assuming the futures continue to move higher -- as why should we not, since they've been moving higher for nearly nine years? -- we should keep the 2782.25 Hidden Pivot shown in mind as a minimum objective. This is the first time I've mentioned it, but it looks worthy of our attention, given the cluster of head-butts at the red line during the last two weeks of December. You can bid the futures mechanically at 2694.25, stop 2664.75, good through Tuesday, but be prepared to substitute a 'camouflage' entry at a higher level if the futures don't pull back. The chat room will be the best place to seek real-time guidance for this, so stay tuned or check 'Email Notifications' on your account dashboard if you care.

Buyers continue to shred their way past Hidden Pivot targets without pausing for a moment's breath. I will continue to proffer these benchmarks nonetheless because: 1) their steadfast bullishness can help permabears stay out of trouble; 2)  they can serve as minimum price objectives for bull trades; and 3) they can be shorted with stops as tight as 1.25 points. All of which you should consider in relation to my latest target: 2743.25. That is where the futures are headed at a minimum, although I can't guarantee the target will show decisive stopping power. If bulls chomp through it effortlessly, you should take it as yet another sign that significantly higher prices impend.

After screwing the pooch since December 18, the futures have yet to exceed by more than a single tick the 2698.00 Hidden Pivot resistance we'd used to stay on the right side of the trend.  I'd also recommended getting short there with a stop-loss as tight as 3.25 points. The pullback so far has been relatively shallow, suggesting bulls are unlikely to simply go away.  If they can keep the heat on bears for another day or two, look for the move to continue to at least 2710.50.  Anything above that would imply buyers are starting to feel their oats as the new year gets under way. _______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 9:04 p.m. EST): Much as I hate to see a good Hidden Pivot rally target go to waste, there is no getting around the fact that the 4-point overshoot of my 2710.50 resistance is bullish. I didn't explicitly advise getting short there because the futures have had such trouble selling off recently. But if the little s.o.b. moves above 2712.50 overnight, I'd cover any shorts you may have held at the closing bell.

The rally stalled at 2698.00, precisely where we had anticipated, but the shallow pullback that has occurred since suggests the futures are going higher.  Those who went short at the target as I'd advised can manage the risk as they see fit, but I would recommend a stop-loss that would preserve at least a small profit on the trade if it's hit.  The next leg up can be expected to produce an equally precise stall at the 2710.50 target shown. Get short a single contract with a 2710.25 offer, stop 2712.25, but you can step up the size to four contracts if you've made money on the way to the target. _______ UPDATE (Dec 19, 12:18 p.m. EST): After head-butting my 2698.00 target for two days but going no higher, ESH18 has dropped the 9.75 points needed to manage the risk 1:3. Take a partial profit here if you've been short. If and when bulls catch their breath, exceeding 2698.00, the 2710.25 target will be in play. A dip below 2674.25 would hint of trouble. _______ UPDATE (Dec 28, 5:53 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.