E-Mini S&P

The selling reversed from within a hair of the 2160.31 'secondary pivot' flagged in the chart that accompanied yesterday's tout. This is a tentatively bullish sign, but it would take a further push exceeding last Friday's 2186.75 peak to suggest that buyers are back on the offensive. If they do regain their footing, you can use the pattern shown to get a precisely tradable handle on the rally. You'd be shooting for a minimum 2203.75, with three possible 'mechanical' opportunities to get long on pullbacks to x, p or p2.

The pattern shown, with a minor downside target at 1302.70, looks like it will provide the most useful perspective for the very near term.  Neither the midpoint pivot nor the secondary (respectively, the red and green lines) showed any discernible support, and that's why I expect the selling to continue down to at least 1302.70. Also, the midpoint pivot produced a would-be profitable 'mechanical' short, as I expect the secondary pivot at 1313.20 to do now. We can worry about the seriousness of this presumptive correction, now in its third week, if and when 1302.70 is easily or decisively exceeded. Were that to occur, the futures would be likely to grope their way down to 1259.10, the June 24 Brexit launching pad, in search of good traction. _______ UPDATE (September 1, 12:01 a.m.):  No change: The analysis provided above can stand as is.

There are numerous bullish ABC patterns of various size driving this rally, but I've selected one of middling importance for now because the futures have stalled at its 2180.25 midpoint pivot. A decisive penetration of this resistance to the upside would shorten the odds of a further push to the 2303.00 target. Levels x, p and p2 could all conceivably be used to get long 'mechanically' if the opportunity should present itself, but there is one further possibility: buying on a pullback to 2167.50, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the downtrending abc pattern labeled in brown. ________ UPDATE (August 30, 5:24 p.m. EDT):  I'm going to leave this dog in the yard overnight without food or water, since its behavior could use some improvement. After topping inches above the 2180.25 pivot flagged in my tout, the futures fell to a low 1.00 point above the 2167.50 pivot where I'd suggested placing a stink bid. As a result, unless you used 'camouflage' tactics to get aboard, you would have missed the trade. Now, assuming the futures take the path of least resistance, they'll continue lower to the 2153.00 target shown.  I am temporarily out of patience for the little sonofabitch, but I would encourage you to use the pattern displayed to trade this vehicle knowledgeably. You'll have the opportunity to make whatever small adjustments might be needed in real time, versus trying to do so with guidance disseminated overnight. As always, if sellers exceed so clear a 'D' target, it would have bearish implications going forward.

Friday's gratuitous Yellenspasms slightly altered the bullish pattern we've been using, lowering the target by about 8 points to 2203.00 (see inset). The futures touched the green line late in the session, tripping a theoretical buy signal, but I'd suggest waiting for a more appealing opportunity to get long. That could come in the form of a 'mechanical' bid on a pullback to at x, p or p2, provided you know what you're doing. If not, you can always monitor chat room discussion about this, since there will usually be a half-dozen or more traders in there who are adept at this type of entry.

It wouldn't take much to destroy the bullish swagger of the chart shown (see inset).  From a purely visual standpoint, it would require only a dip beneath the 2165.50 low recorded a week ago. Except that we are not likely to see a mere dip, since any such weakness would produce an epiphany of menace. Even the untrained eye can see that there is a lot of white space beckoning just below. Should it come to preoccupy us, heaven forbid, that would be akin to being on a highwire and looking, uh-oh, down.  Two more days remain in the week for the stock market to avoid this potentially fatal temptation. We won't presume to know how things will turn out, but bulls had better get in gear soon if they hope to distract us from the obvious.

I identified the 2211.00 rally target shown during this morning's impromptu tech-analysis session and it still looks compelling -- which is to say, looks short-able. However, the 27-point rally it would take to get there is going to look pretty scary to anyone eager to lay 'em out. That's why I would strongly suggest taking the bull trade for the presumptive ride north first, since any profits earned thereof would serve to cushion a wider-than-usual stop-loss for the short. Meanwhile, any of the three labeled lows could set up either a 'counterintuitive' entry or a camouflage one, but the futures would also be signaling a 'mechanical' buy, stop 2165.25, on a pullback to the green line. You could reduce the theoretical entry risk by as much as 90% by using the mechanical signal to create a 'camo' set-up.

I'm tracking a single-contract short with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 2209.00 and a stop-loss at 2186.25.  Today's chart returns us to the big picture, which shows a bull-market target at 2304.75.  A pullback to the red line would be a 'mechanical' buy in theory, but in my estimation a 'mechanical' entry on a further pullback to the green line (2062.31) would be less risky.  We're not bound to this relatively risky tactic, however, since we can 'convert' a mechanical signal to 'camouflage' if and when the opportunity presents itself. That would entail waiting at least until next week, when the futures will have spent sufficient time hovering above the red line to vindicate a mechanical bid.  Meanwhile, based on the robust look of the pattern and the way buyers blew past the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2143.13 on the first try, I would surmise the following: The bull market could make its ultimate high shy of 2304.75, but I doubt the final turndown would come before p2=2223.94 is achieved. _______ UPDATE (August 21, 11:45 a.m. EDT): No change. Three days of tedious, gratuitous spasms have yet to push the futures any higher than 2184.50, so our short position remains intact.  DaBoyz will keep trying, opportunistically moving this brick higher as soon as conditions favor yet another short squeeze. That is virtually the only source of buying power sufficient to overcome supply when there are no good reasons to own shares. _______ UPDATE (August 22, 7:27 p.m.): Yet another day of pointless thrashing around has changed nothing for us. Rallies haven't been strong enough to reach the 'easy' stop-loss at 2186.25. However, sellers are evidently too enfeebled to push this vehicle down to a just-as-easy 2159.25 Hidden Pivot support based on these coordinates (15-minute): a= 2190.75 on 8/15; b= 2165.50

The futures have fallen five points so far after topping precisely at the 2190.75 rally target (see inset) I'd projected last week.  As far as I can tell, no subscribers were long for the ride north. However, because several of you reported getting short this morning near 2190, and because my instructions to do so were explicit and precise, I've established a tracking position: short two contracts with a 2195.25 cost basis. This price has been adjusted to reflect a partial profit taken on half of an initial four-contract position covered at 2186.25 (as advised in a chat room post at 11:25 a.m.). For now, place a bid at 2181.50 to cover a third contract, and make it o-c-o with a separate order to exit the remainder of our position (i.e., cover two short contracts) via a 2190.75 buy-stop. The rally target was not a major one, but we'll swing for the fences nonetheless if we are left with a single-contract short that gets comfortably in-the-black. ______  UPDATE (August 16, 10:34 a.m. EDT): A nine-point drop overnight to a so-far low of 2177.00 has allowed us to cover a third contract for 2181.50. The short contract or the 25% of the original position that we still hold has an imputed cost basis of 2209.00. For now, use a stop-loss at 2186.25. _______ UPDATE (6:14 p.m.): Let the position ride, since things are going our way (see inset).  We're not quite swinging for the fences yet, but if we were to use a hair-trigger 'impulsive' stop-loss, we'd exit the position on an uncorrected rally exceeding the two numbered peaks shown. _______ UPDATE (August 17, 7:26 p.m.): We'll stick with our plan, meaning you should exit on a stop-loss if 2186.25 is hit. That would leave us with a theoretical profit on

Friday's gratuitous chop left a 2190.75 rally target for the near term unchanged. Precise pullbacks already seen from p and p2 imply that we'll see an equally precise pullback from the target if and when it is reached.  That makes it potentially short-able, but we should be prepared for a push past it nonetheless, since that would signal more upside and justify a bullish trading bias. Alternatively, the futures would be warning of trouble if they close beneath the 'external' low at 2160.50 recorded on 8/5.