E-Mini S&P

I've reflexively used a not-so-distinctive one-off 'A' to project minimum downside to the 2134.25 midpoint support shown, but if there's no bounce from that number, look for it at 2131.50, an alternative Hidden Pivot calculated from the 'marquee' high at 2182.75 recorded on September 8. The futures showed little pluck on Monday, ratcheting slowly over the course of the day to within less than a point of a minor, 2138.50 target I'd disseminated in the chat room early in the session. Sellers eventually put in a low at 2136.75, and although that's not enough of an overshoot to ensure significantly more downside ahead, neither is it exactly a sign of good health.  At any rate, 2131.50 had better hold, since a decisive failure there would put a 2090.25 downside target in play. That is the target of the pattern shown, but drawn from the highest high rather than the one-off.________ UPDATE (Sep 27, 12:24 a.m. ET): The futures have unaccountably taken a Whoopee Cushion bounce tonight from 2133.25, a low that lies within the narrow range between the two Hidden Pivot supports noted above.  At the moment, buyers have stalled at the exact, 2153.88 midpoint resistance of a rally pattern projecting to 2174.50 (A=2131.50 at noon on 9/21). A decisive push past p would put the 2174.50 target well in play. It lies just inches from new all-time highs._________ UPDATE (11:17 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzzzz. Today's gratuitous spasms lowered the target to 2174.00, the midpoint resistance to 2153.38.

With no Fed policy pronouncements on the calendar Friday, I was still unprepared for the stock market's deadly dullness. The broad averages spent the day ratcheting lower, bottoming near the peak of last Wednesday's spike rally.  They remain within easy distance of record highs nonetheless, and it would be most surprising if DaBoyz didn't take a shot at those highs in the week ahead. Not necessarily on Monday, though, unless the energy and inspiration typically lacking on Mondays is unexpectedly switched on by some interesting headline Sunday even. (Fat chance in this hellish election year.) The rightmost edge of the chart is slightly bullish, owing to the impulse leg created on the hourly chart at Thursday's high. Night owls can use the pattern shown to fashion a long-entry signal, which would become more enticing if the eventual point 'C' low occurs very close to the prospective 'A', in the range 2153.50-2155.00. _______ UPDATE (9:59 a.m. ET): Use 2138.50 as a downside target for now (a=2155.75 at 1:15 a.m. ET).  Alternatively, the two-minute chart would swing bullishly impulsive on a print exceeding 2146.50.

Short-covering on Thursday shredded a clear Hidden Pivot resistance at 2162.25, implying higher prices are likely. Bulls will face a daunting challenge, however, in the form of supply that stretches back to early August. Most buyers since then would have gotten aboard at or near record highs and weathered the one-day plunge that occurred on September 9; many of them will be understandably eager to get out 'even'. That's why there will be plenty of stock offered for sale as the week draws to a close. However, bears alarmed by the persistence and ferocity of the rally since the v-shaped low two weeks ago are probably even more eager to cover short positions, and that's why I expect the old record highs to be surpassed. If this is in fact how things unfold on Friday, there should be discernible resistance nevertheless at the 2182.94 'secondary' pivot shown in the chart as a pink line. However, a close above it for two consecutive bars, or a decisive move past it intraday, would put the futures on course for a romp next week to the 2210.50 target, or to 2226.50 if any higher. Either of those two Hidden Pivots would make for an appealing place to try shorting ahead of a possible Mother of All Tops. We've made money being wrong on this bet many times in the past, and caught some exhilarating but short-lived downdrafts. Ask traders about this in the chat room if you are skeptical. In the meantime, there is potentially as much as 60 points of upside to get long, presumably using 'mechanical' bids and/or camouflage entry tactics at p or p2 -- respectively, the red and pink lines.

Bulls continue to hold sway, although they could never be accused of muscling the futures around on Tuesday. It was just more vamping ahead of whatever announcement the Fed has in store for traders on Wednesday. A press release is due out at 2:00 p.m. ET, and although no one could have any doubt about what's coming and what the perennially dithering Open Market Committee intends, the opportunity to push the broad averages higher on any 'news' at all is unlikely to go unexploited. The announcement will be bullish ostensibly, since we've been hearing for a month about how tightening 'might' come in September. Apparently not, not that it matters. Night owls please note: With the tightest stop-loss you can handle, try bottom-fishing at the 2124.50 target of the small abc pattern from Monday's high._______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 12:08 a.m. ET): Tonight's weakness reversed from within a tick of the 2129.25 'secondary' pivot of the pattern alluded to above: 60-minute, a=2146.75 (9/19); b=2127.75; c=2143.50. The 2124.50 correction target is still valid, but it will become less enticing if it is not hit within the next few hours. _______UPDATE (Sep 21, 10:18 a.m.): The futures never quite got down to 2124.50; the overnight low as 2126.25. The expected rally that has ensued is targeted on 2154.25, shown in the original chart from two days ago (see inset). _______ UPDATE (5:14 p.m.): Check my posts in the chat room, beginning with the one at 16:56, for trading guidance on Thursday._______ UPDATE (Sep 22, 9:39 a.m.): Buyers turned double resistance at 1259.75/1262.25 into chop suey, threatening to extend this short squeeze until the very last bear has been flayed and turned into a rug.

Monday morning's competently orchestrated short-squeeze stopped a single tick from the 2146.44 'secondary' Hidden Pivot target disseminated here last night. Ordinarily this would be reason for bears to take mild encouragement, especially since the reaction move generated a bearish impulse leg on the lesser charts. However, because the stock market was simply idling ahead of whatever drivel Yellen serves up this afternoon, there is little of tradable value for us to infer. Of course, we all know what she will say:  that although tightening is no longer immediately in prospect, the Fed will continue to weigh its options. This might be expected to draw a yawn from thinking investors, assuming there are any left. However, in the judgmentally impaired, greed-saturated, quasi-deranged, thieving world of Wall Street, and in equally benighted newsrooms across the land, it will be justification for the stock market to launch into hysterics -- ostensibly because the news will differ somewhat from Fed drivel promoted heavy-handedly in recent weeks to suggest that rates 'could be' 'tightened' as 'early' as 'September'. I won't presume to tell you how to trade whatever wacky price action results when the alleged news hits the tape at 2:00 p.m. However, I can all but guarantee that any upswing will be contained by either the 2154.25 target furnished here yesterday, or by the 2162.25 target of a somewhat larger pattern. Both Hidden Pivot levels are shown in the chart.

Friday's price action was pure slop, but it put the futures on-track nonetheless for a push to the 2154.25 target shown. There are some 'external' peaks you can use to get aboard via 'camouflage,' and I've labeled them for your guidance. Also, Hidden Pivot levels x, p and p2 can be used 'mechanically' to get long on the way up provided you know how these set-ups work. (If not, just ask in the chat room once any of these levels has been exceeded by at least 3 points. That is a precondition for any 'mechanical' trade.) I will update this tout if index futures open weak enough Sunday night to jeopardize the rally pattern -- a minor one so far, to be sure.

This will be scant comfort to those who were on the wrong side of today's short-squeeze, but I have serious doubts that the futures are destined for new record-highs. At least a little more pain seems likely nonetheless, since the usual suspects were ratcheting the futures lower in after-hours trading, presumably to dry up sellers for an opening-bell goosing on Friday. To take some of the guesswork out of whatever it is the Dirtballs intend, I'd suggest using the pattern shown. As long as this evening's mild weakness doesn't exceed the labeled 213o.25 low, the abc rally pattern could conceivably evolve into a 'counterintuitive' buying set-up. If the anticipated rally does happen and comes from the existing point 'c' low at 2132.00, it would have the potential to reach 2146.26, or 2163.25 at a maximum. The latter number can be found by sliding the point 'a' low down to 2113.25. As always, any HP level can be used to effect a 'mechanical' buy, provided you know what you're doing. If you don't, you need only ask in the chat room, since this vehicle has been getting plenty of knowledgeable attention lately from Pivoteers who know their stuff and who are only too willing to help.  A caveat to permabears: If too many traders share my wishful opinion that new all-time highs are unlikely, a new all-time high is exactly what Mr Market is about to deliver. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 8:32 a.m.): DaBoyz had to take the futures down to 2126.50 overnight to dry up sellers. The subsequent, obligatory goosing has tripped a theoretical 'buy' signal for the pattern shown, but if you plan to use it I'd suggest a camouflage entry only. Let's see if these slimeballs can punch through the midpoint pivot. 9:36 note:  DaBoyz are taking on

The futures were headed most immediately to the 2107.75 target shown, having failed to muster their customary short-squeeze rally in the final hour of the session. The polymath chimps at the control panels tried their darndest to promote a bounce off Tuesday's low, but this too failed -- badly, since the low they used was a tick beneath the day-earlier low. This would have stopped out many bulls just ahead of the bounce. While that should have lightened the load, giving the reversal more pop, buyers -- even with the help of short-covering bears -- achieved only a meager 7.50 points of upside before succumbing to gravity. This show of weakness is sufficient to suggest that the minor Hidden Pivot support at 2107.75 (see inset) is unlikely to hold , even if if provides a scalp-able bounce. The bigger picture, proffered here for the last few days, still points toward a 2073.50 target. Most immediately, when the 2114.75 midpoint support of this pattern gives way, the futures will be on their way to a minimum 2094.13, the 'secondary' Hidden Pivot support.  Both that number and 2114.75 can be used to set up 'mechanical' shorts, provided you're familiar with the tactic._______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 7:47 a.m. EDT): The 2107.75 Hidden Pivot caught the exact low of a so-far 15-point bounce that could have produced a profit of as much as $760 per contract for anyone who used the target to get long. The rally is bullishly impulsive on the 15-minute chart (although not yet on the hourly; that would require a print at 2130.25), and that's where you should find your trades for the time being if you want to ride this horse without sticking your neck out too far. As implied above, the move is most probably a bull trap.

Today's price action generated a distinctive pattern on the intraday charts with the potential to tell us whether the powerful selling we've see in recent days might be the beginning of a bear market. Notice how this morning's follow-through to Friday's steep plunge stopped almost precisely at the red line around mid-session. The line is a key 'Hidden Pivot' support at 2114.75, and if it were to be breached decisively -- meaning by about six or seven points -- that would strongly imply more downside is coming to at least 2073.50, the 'D' target of the pattern. Alternatively, if the futures were to reverse upward now and surpass even minor peaks created by the downtrend, that would imply bulls are regaining their footing. Ironically, it would be bears goaded into short-covering who would be doing the bulls' heavy lifting. As for their motivation for such urgent buying, it would come from the terrifying sight of a rally shredding even small pockets of supply. We won't presume to know how things will turn out on Tuesday, but in any event, holding above 2114.75 will be critical. Most bearish of all would be a continuation of the downtrend and an easy penetration of the 2073.50 support.