E-Mini S&P

Friday's sloppy price action left intact a high from the previous day that precisely matched a long-term trendline. Still unachieved is a Hidden Pivot target at 2085.25 that lies a millimeter above the trendline. If the futures should break out to begin the week, the next spot where we might look for tradable resistance is at 2101.75, a Hidden Pivot of greater importance than the one at 2085.25.  Although the nervousness of traders is likely to be at a fever pitch this week, my advice is to use the technical tools at our disposal to visualize price action in its simplest terms -- i.e., as bullish or bearish impulse legs on charts of different time frames. That's what we'll be doing in the chat room, so if you're looking for tradable ideas in real time, and for a way to reduce entry risk to a bare minimum, then by all means join us. _______ UPDATE (9:42 p.m. ET): Cartel talks to suppress oil output have very predictably failed, sending the E-Mini S&Ps 15 points lower on the opening Sunday night.  Let's get one thing out of the way now, so that we don't have to waste time debating whether falling oil output can somehow overtake falling global demand with sufficient momentum to cause oil prices to rise. This idiotic notion is just the pipe dream of all who are praying desperately for a little inflation, presumably because it would help bail out a banking system hopelessly mired in bad energy loans. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, guys, but any rally in crude is just a dead-cat bounce. As for the E-Mini S&Ps, we'll pass up a 'mechanical' buying opportunity down at x=2040.81 (the green line) and simply observe. If the futures sink below C=2026.00 without having achieved

Thursday's rally fell 3.50 points shy of our 2085.25 target, providing reason for caution. In practice, that means continuing to use 2085.25 to manage the risk of any bullish trades while simultaneously monitoring the very lesser charts for bearish impulse legs that could signal the beginning of an important trend change. As I noted here earlier, 2085.25 has the potential to mark an important top. However, there can be no guarantees that it will be reached. There is another potentially important resistance discussed here earlier at 2101.75 that is subject to the same caveat.  Notice as well that the top of Thursday rally coincided precisely with a trendline we've been watching for several weeks. Unquestionably, the futures are at a very crucial level. As always, the best way to glean tradable information from nervous price action will be to view the ups and downs in terms of the impulse legs they generate on the lesser charts. Do this diligently and you will never, ever miss an important turn.

Although stocks looked ponderous on Thursday, the hourly chart for this vehicle remains persuasively bullish. The implied run-up to 2101.75 seems likely to generate a tradable top, possibly an important one. Of more immediate concern is whether the futures will get there at all or simply roll over in bearish fashion from these levels.  Regardless, we'll treat any trading opportunities that arise disinterestedly, implying a possible 'mechanical' buy at p2=2079.38 if the futures exceed that Hidden Pivot decisively and then pull back to it. Please note that the chart shown would become impulsively bearish if the futures should fall to 2068.25 today.

The 2078.00 rally target provided here yesterday came within a single point of nailing the intraday high of a 22-point surge. As implied earlier, the move would need to push decisively past the target, a Hidden Pivot resistance, before we can confidently assume that significantly higher prices impend. More immediately, there is one last hidden resistance, 2085.25, to impede the upward flow. It can be used as a minimum upside objective as well. Night owls looking to get long can do so via a 'mechanical' bid at 2070.44, the secondary pivot, stop 2065.50. If 2085.25 is subsequently achieved, at least 25% of the original position should be held for bigger things.

I haven't given up entirely on the trendline (see inset), but bears ought not count too heavily on it to contain the next rampage. At the very least, it seems likely to be tested, implying there's a 30-point rally in the offing. More immediately, the futures looked bound Tuesday night for 2065.00, or to 2078.00 if any higher. Respectively, they are the secondary Hidden Pivot and the D target of this pattern on the 15-minute chart: A=2019.25 on 3/29; B=2071.50 on 4/4; and C=2026.00. I have not opened a tracking position, at least not yet, but a subscriber reported using the 2052.00 midpoint pivot to get long via 'camouflage'. The next such opportunity could come on a pullback to 2065.00 once it has been decisively exceeded for at least three bars.

Squirrelly as ever, the futures gave up all of Monday's substantial gains in the final hour. The selloff was stalled at a 2030.25 'secondary pivot' in after-hours trading, but if and when it gives way, the June contract should be presumed headed to 2021.50, a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks. A 'mechanical' short from 2030.25 could also be attempted, provided the set-up meets our criteria for this type of trade. If 2021.50 gives way easily and the selling starts to snowball, however, look for more downside to 2011.00. That target is derived by sliding 'A' up to April 4's 2071.50 peak. _______ UPDATE (April 12, 11:36 a.m. ET): The secondary pivot did NOT give way; instead, it provided support for DaBoyz to pop off a so-far 20-point short squeeze.

Today's weakness strongly suggests the futures will have to move lower before DaBoyz can goose stocks into yet another short-squeeze parabola. My hunch is that the best buying opportunity we'll see will come in the form of a 'counterintuitive' trade. In the accompanying chart, I've sketched two hypothetical examples (ignoring a minor 'Pontiac/Oldsmobile' low that sits between them). If the trade triggers in the final hour, I'd suggest hanging back until a better opportunity comes along next week. A long from the lower 'A' will probably enjoy better odds, since the possibility of its being breached will inspire more fear among traders. _______ UPDATE (April 10, 11:19 p.m. ET): Friday's gratuitous hump left my outlook unchanged.

Yesterday's bullish call went against a two-day tide of selling, allowing quite a few subscribers to get long at or very near the intraday low. Based on chat-room reports, I've established a long tracking position consisting of two contracts with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 2013.00. One should be offered to close at 2079.00, just beneath the secondary pivot of the original pattern, with an o-c-o stop-loss on the entire position (i.e., the two contracts that remain) at 2034.00. If we are successful in closing out the third contract at our price, we'll swing for the fences with the one contract that would remain.  That implies using the 2101.75 target of the chart I'd sketched and disseminated to subscribers Tuesday night. (Note: Rick's Picks does not track P&L, and any trade reported here must be confirmed by at least two subscribers, based on their actual experience. Visit our 24/7 chat room and share trading ideas and real-time results by taking a free trial subscription.) _______ UPDATE (April 7, 2:10 p.m. ET): With stocks getting thrashed today, subscribers were to have exited on a stop at 2013.00. This would have produced a theoretical profit on the position of $2100.

Two days of moderate selling may have inspired hopeful thoughts among bears, but notice in the chart (inset) that the weakness has left intact a bullish ABC pattern projecting 60 points higher. That would be equivalent to about 500 Dow points, presumably enough to bring bears back to reality. Moreover, in theory the pullback to the green line at 2034.63 is a 'mechanical' buy, stop 2012.00, for a ride to as high as 2101.75.  Instead, I'll recommend using the 'camouflage' technique if you should want to attempt bottom-fishing. That would entail initiating a trade via an uptrending abc pattern on the three-minute chart or lower. The goal would be to reduce the $1100 theoretical entry risk of the mechanical trade to more like $60. _______ UPDATE (12:14 p.m. ET):  The mechanical trade would have gotten you aboard with zero pain at the exact intraday low for a ride to as high as 2052.25. If you used 'camouflage,' entry would have been triggered at 2040.00, 10:41 a.m. ET, on the one-minute chart. I'll establish a tracking position if I hear from at least two people in the chat room who took the trade. ________ UPDATE (3:52 p.m.): In the chat room many subscribers reported nailing this trade, so I'll track two contracts with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 2013.00. This assumes two contracts of four initially purchased were exited at 2057.00, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of the pattern I'd drawn. Now, offer a third contract to close at 2079.00, just beneath the secondary pivot. If the order fills, we'll go for broke with our last contract, offering it at the original 2101.75 ' target. The order should be held o-c-o (one-cancels-other) with a stop-loss on two contracts at 2034.00.