E-Mini S&P

A chart stretching back to November provides no compelling technical basis for saying anything interesting, let alone bullish or bearish, about what might happen next. It's anyone's guess, although the June contract would have to eat through thick layers of supply to achieve new recovery highs above February's 4244 peak.  Poor earnings would help, since the mere expectation of them is usually enough to get stocks sold out before the news hits. With or without grim tidings to drive the rally, we can be assured that intraday highs and lows will continue to be predictable enough to give us an edge. Friday's peak, for instance, missed a 'D' Hidden Pivot target that was as obvious as the punchline of a mile-long stretch of Burma Shave signs. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 11:12 p.m.): There are some days when we should just avert our eyes and this was one of them.  A sinking VIX belies the nuttiness animating stocks these days. We should start loading up on puts today and Monday, because I strongly doubt that these histrionics are torquing the market for an ebullient move higher. That seems doubly true with The Wall Street Journal's bullish spin on...everything starting to sound increasingly desperate.  DaBoyz are getting ready to pull the plug.

I hate to be the bearer of good news, but the futures were actually a 'mechanical' buy when Friday's death spiral splattered on the green line in the closing minutes of the session. You are forgiven if you had no appetite for the trade, since neither you nor anyone else could have expected the weekend to bring a bullish resolution to Putin's potentially world-ending dilemma. Don't feel bad about missing this opportunity, however; it rates only a '6.8', since the A-B impulse leg was not exactly a killer wave of insatiable buying. The implication is that the futures will rally to p=4296.63 before taking out the pattern's 'C' low at 4138.75.  Bet on it Sunday night if you wish, but I'd prefer to watch before hazarding a guess as to what the rest of the week will bring. Whatever happens, ALL rallies for the foreseeable future should be regarded as juicy short sales.  If you want to see how this can be done without incurring too much risk, stay closely tuned to the chat room. _______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 8:21 a.m.): DaBoyz failed miserably at exhausting sellers over the weekend because none showed up. This means that the obligatory stage-managed, distributive, short-squeeze rally on the opening will be very subdued and brief if it happens at all. For that reason I'll suggest scratching the trade now. Please let me know in the chat room if you took the trade, since it triggered on Friday's closing bar and was showing a paper gain of more than $7,000 on four contracts at 6:00 a.m. this morning. The futures have traded up to within a tick of the green line when this update was posted, and gave since traded as high as 4224.25.  _______UPDATE (Mar 14, 10:06 p.m.): This pattern has worked well

Last week's high fell almost precisely at the 'D' target of a middling rABC pattern, presumably maxing out the upside for the moment, and that is why we can use the bearish pattern shown to get a handle on this vehicle in the week ahead despite its obviousness and plain-vanillaness. Most immediately, that would imply bottom-fishing at p=4227.38 as a tightly stopped scalp-trade, and subsequently shorting at the green line (x), assuming it's hit via the right kind of bounce. For now, use 4227.38 as a minimum downside target for the near term. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 9:49 a.m. EST): It is unusual and mildly disconcerting for a perfectly located, 4227.38 midpoint support to have failed to gift us with a bottom-fishing trade. The futures fell to within an inch of the trigger price, then bounced sharply. The HP Method 'textbook ' provides two possible explanations: 1) the droolers and algos have finally begun to recognize the usefulness of this key HP level; or, 2) buying power is waxing and was too strong to allow a correction to reach p. I lean toward the latter interpretation, but without necessarily having it negate the former. The implication is that this rally will at least exceed C=4418.75. Here's the chart. [Further update, 10:40 a.m.: The bounce reached the green line (x=4323.06), but it did not qualify as a ‘mechanical’ short, since the bounce was coming off a low that had failed to touch p.] ______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 7:40 p.m.): Considering what's going on in the world, sellers looked most unimpressive as they batted down the futures a measly 146 points. When they come to their senses, look for the S&Ps to fall 400-600 points in a day, an event that would be commensurate with the excesses that have preceeded it. In the meantime,

Friday's unrelenting short-squeeze appeared headed to the 4421.50 target of the reverse pattern shown (inset). The run-up from Thursday's low has yielded no interesting buying opportunities, since the pullbacks have been too shallow to bring the futures within the range of a 'mechanical' bid at either p or x. Impulse legs on the hourly chart have not been stellar, however, implying the rally is probably not destined for greatness. Regardless, if the move pops through 'D' with sufficient force, that would increase the likelihood that new record highs are coming. Bears had been slogging painfully lower for nearly three weeks, gaining by inches, but on Friday they were no match for short-covering that seemed hell-bent on stealing it all back in mere days. ______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 11:50 p.m.): It's not exactly a sign of good health that the March futures have struggled for three days to achieve an easy rally target. Even so, we won't count out the chimps charged with keeping this hoax alive and with making life as difficult as possible for those who would seek to profit  from a suspected bear market. Let's move to the sidelines for now.

Hidden Pivot voodoo nailed El Diablo's most diabolical swings last week almost to-the-tick, allowing subscribers who were tuned to this vehicle to crush it on trades from either side of the market. The week ended with a key support at p=4324.25 holding precisely, so any predictions about what, exactly, will come next would be premature. As always, a decisive breach of p would portend more downside to the 'D' target -- in this case 4062.50, the number we've been using to avoid getting suckered by bear rallies.  Meanwhile, we should not fear the inevitable short squeeze unless it pushes this hoax above the 4512.75 'external' peak recorded on February 12. ______ UPDATE (Feb 23, 6:06 p.m.): Even the village idiot could see that all rallies are short sales these days and that they are occurring mostly in the dead of night. This is when the Master of the Universe (a.k.a., DaBoyz) are most easily able to manipulate stocks higher for distribution on extremely thin, short-squeezed volume. Bears should be careful as the selloff approaches the 4190 'secondary' pivot of the large, bearish pattern that projects to 4062.50. Here's another view: the presumably fragile neckline of a big head-and-shoulders formation. _______ UPDATE (Feb 24, 11:17 p.m. ):  A dead-cat trampoline bounce rocketed off a low 40 points from D=4062.50. The low occurred about midway between p2 and D, a 'discomfort zone' that is too unreliable to leverage. A run-up to the green line would trigger a 'mechanical' short, but only a one-level ride should be attempted; any more would be greedy. Here's the chart.

Because the steep selloff that ended the week was driven by news from Kiev, we should view it as corrective. I've implied as much in the current Morning Line commentary, which notes that no one ever went broke buying stocks as they plummeted on some distressing headline. Friday's dive terminated precisely at the 'D' target of the small pattern shown in the chart, but still lower prices seem likely before the 'rumor' of a Ukraine invasion is actualized by Russian tanks and troops. We should therefore focus on p=4323.25 of the larger, bearish pattern, since that is where the futures are most likely to head on Monday.  Bottom-fish there in the usual ways, but let's remain open-minded to the possibility the midpoint support will give way. Depending on how badly, this could portend a test of January 24's bombed-out low at 4212.75. _______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 5:15): Candy-ass bears evidently were so unnerved today by rumors that Putin might be willing to negotiate that they failed to follow through on Friday's promising selloff. Add in the divergent, 'green' finish of AAPL and Bertie (bitcoin), and it is hard to imagine stocks going anywhere but sideways-to-higher this week. _______ UPDATE (Feb 15, 10:47 p.m.):  DaSleazeballs are still in charge, and they mean to take this hoax higher whether there are buyers or not. All of yesterday's gains occurred on zero volume around 4:00 a.m.  What more do you need to know? _______ UPDATE (Feb 17, 10:35 a.m.): See my recent Trading Room posts for an actionable idea that I aired yesterday and slightly revised a moment ago. _______ UPDATE (Feb 17, 5:55 p.m.): Barring a bounce from p2=4359.63, the futures appear headed down to the 4318.00 target of this pattern. Any profits booked on the way down should be applied to bottom-fishing there

Short-covering extended the stock market's bounce for a second week, but without generating any impulse legs on the daily chart. On balance, bears still appear to hold the edge, mainly because of the steep pitch and power of January's sell-off.  We should give bulls wide berth nonetheless, since the week ended with an earnings blowout at Amazon and a 20-1 stock split for Google shares that will enable the riff-raff to own the stock just like the big boys. Let's greet the new week from the sidelines, until we get a clear sign of where things are headed. _______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 8:24 p.m. EST): Signs this week have been clearly bullish, which suggests that the bear rally, if that's all it is, is doing its job effectively.  If the move achieves new record highs, which looks like no worse than an even bet at the moment, we may be pondering the same question even then: is it for real, or not? Instead of worrying about it or trying to guess how and where a top might occur, we should simply trade with the trend. Nudge me in the chat room if you want further guidance during regular hours.

Last week's elongated bars imply bulls and bears were more or less evenly divided as they fought for their respective lives near the bottom of January's plunge.  You can use the 4500.75 'D' target of the reverse pattern shown as an upside target as the week begins, but I am not recommending shorting there unless with 'camouflage' cover limiting your risk to no more than relative pocket change.  The pattern worked well for 'mechanical' bids at the green line, but using it again will likely be pushing your luck. ______ UPDATE (Jan 31, 7:43 p.m.): ES poked its snout above the 4500 target for a few minutes, then pulled back to cruising altitude so that DaBoyz can await further instruction. It will come via the desertion of sellers, short-covering bears uncomfortable with the recalcitrance of the pullback or, most likely, a combination of both.  ______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 5:40 p.m.): The way bears have obligingly placed their testicles in Mr. Market's vise could make one wonder how on earth the bull market will ever end. DaBoyz twiddled their thumbs for most of the session, effortlessly holding stocks aloft until shorts capitulated in the final hour. The latter now look like dead ducks -- worse than dead ducks, actually, since they are probably hoping tomorrow will somehow be different. _______ UPDATE (Feb 2, 8:56 p.m.): Use this sumptuously gnarly pattern for all purposes -- and yes, it does imply a 'mechanical' bid at x=4503.25 is warranted if you know how to 'camo' your way aboard for no more than $800 of theoretical entry risk (on four contracts). ______ UPDATE (Feb 3, 9:35 p.m.): The futures are in a steep short-squeeze following after-hours news that business is just hunky-dory at Amazon. Wall Street is crazy for companies that show sufficient pricing power to sodomize their

Bears were probably more frightened than bulls when Monday's carnage ended. The final half-hour of the session featured an 80-point rally so steep that it would have left shorts too dazed to stand their ground. However, the bigger picture suggests cyclical forces may finally be on their side. It features an 11% drop in the S&Ps over the last eight days that exceeded no fewer than five prior lows. This is a quite powerful impulse leg, and it is how we might expect a bear market to begin.  For now, though, it seems highly unlikely to be quickly undone by short covering, let alone by bulls eager to buy the dip. This time, many of them will doubtless be praying for an opportunity to exit at at least somewhat higher prices rather than salivating over the prospect of going all-in on further weakness. This doesn't mean things will get any easier for bears, who may be sensing a chance, finally, to make some real money. Regardless, whatever opportunities arise will be reducible to the common denominator of the Hidden Pivot Method: impulse legs. Stay tuned if you want to see how we make sense of them and trade them, no matter how nutty stocks get. _______ UPDATE (Jan 25, 10:23 p.m.): 'Mechanical' trades work best in violent markets, especially when the entry looks scary. Check out this evening's chat room gambit involving a bet against a nasty after-hours sell-off. It produced a quick winner worth at least $1,700 per contract. _______ UPDATE (Jan 26, 9:10 p.m.): The night shift dirtballs can't always steal with impunity. Tonight, for instance, although they have pulled their bids in order to see where sellers exhaust themselves, they must still be on their guard for an onslaught of market orders at the opening. Use p2=4240.50 in