E-Mini S&P

Yesterday's whack-o price action was marginally tradable, although not via a plan one could have formulated the night before. Check the chat room discussion around 11:56 and you'll see how we did it, leveraging the 1877.75 target of a minor correction. This wasn't exactly a buy-and-hold opportunity, just an attempt to horn in on gratuitous price action driven mainly by not-so-bright machines. I have nothing more to say about the futures at the moment, other than there are higher targets outstanding. Stay close to the chat room, though, if you're interested in more-timely advice. As long as this gas-bag as moving, we may as well try to exploit it. _______ UPDATE (9:23 a.m. EDT): Onward and upward. This morning's pre-opening bubble-up points to a minor but nonetheless tradable top 1895.50, subject to a midpoint impediment at 1892.00.

The futures continued to take mincing, marginally tradable steps from one rally target to the next, most recently exceeding by a single point an 1885.25 Hidden Pivot I'd disseminated in the chat room Wednesday morning. This occurred in the final minutes of the session -- too late to offer a comfortable shorting opportunity. The next rally target lies at 1889.75 (see inset), and although we've grown accustomed to seeing these numbers work fairly precisely, I'd be the first to concede that it is not always easy to catch a ride to them. This opportunity will probably appeal best to night owls, but if you plan to use 'camouflage' to get aboard, I'd suggest doing your hunting on the 1-minute chart rather than the 15-minute displayed.  The bigger-picture target, to remind you, is 1933.25, implying that your trading bias should be bullish for now, even if you're inclined to attempt scalping from the short side at minor rally targets.

Traders looking for actionable advice in real time might want to consider following me on Twitter by clicking here. Anyone dialed in yesterday would have received the following tweet at 1:16 p.m. EDT:  'E-Mini S&P: So-far high somewhat shy of still-good 1881.25 target. Pullback to Hidden Pivot 'sibling' at 1870.25 is spec buy w/ tight stop.'  As you can see in the accompanying chart, the futures pulled back to exactly 1870.00 before embarking on a 9.50-point rally that could have been worth as much as $950 to anyone long just two contracts. Ordinarily I would now suggest reversing long positions and going short at the 1181.25 target, which was missed by 2.50 points. However, although the target itself remains viable, any hysterics overnight or at the opening bell could make it tricky to squeeze off the short with the very tight stop-loss that I usually advise. Looking ahead, a decisive move today past the target would portend still more strength.  If it comes, we've got a 1933.25 rally target to inform our trading decisions.  As I noted here earlier, I am very wary of the possibility that a run-up to this Hidden Pivot, representing a new all-time high, would be a bull trap. We'll want to try shorting there regardless, so stay tuned if you're interested.

Coin-toss odds will obtain once again as the stock markets enter a presumptive seventh straight week of sideways tedium. My gut feeling is that even if this is a consolidation rather than a distribution, the rally that's coming will go only as high as needed to trap bulls badly. That could require little more than a 30-40 point move above the old record highs -- about as much as DaBoyz may be able to squeeze from shorts, given the unlikelihood of genuinely positive economic news. The chart (see inset) shows a 1933.50 target that we have considered before as a possible last gasp for the five-year-old bull market. The target looks just as compelling on the intraday charts -- in this case, a 240-minute -- as on the daily where we last considered it. Get free instant access to Rick’s Picks – no credit card necessary – by clicking here.

The futures bottomed yesterday less than a point from an 1833.25 target given here a day earlier. This permitted the timely covering of shorts initiated from near 1850, or possibly from around 1845 if entered just before Thursday's opening.  Subscribers who were in the chat room ahead of the opening bell could have hitched a ride -- worth as much as $550 per contract over the 15-minute life of the trade -- since I posted explicit, step-by-step details in real time, from entry to exit.  The  bounce from the low carried 14 points, and although the relapse that followed wiped out all but a single point of that gain, the futures ended the day on a slightly bullish note.  True, the larger trend is bearish and projects to 1819.75, the minor uptrend shown could still reach 1851.00 if buyers can break free of the 1844.00 midpoint pivot that stymied them yesterday. Either of these Hidden Pivots is shortable, but I'd suggest using the 'camouflage' technique, since the 1851.00 target that is going out with tonight's newsletter could draw some front-runners.  Want to check out the details of yesterday's trade, as given in the chat room?  Get free instant access to Rick's Picks -- no credit card necessary -- by clicking here.

Traders tuned to the chat room yesterday afternoon could have caught a brief rally on the way down, but this vehicle became a short to the 1833.25 target shown when the 1850.25 midpoint from which it had initially bounced gave way toward the end of the session. The intraday low at 1841.50 left the E-Mini a tradable distance from the target, and the opportunity to profit from a follow-through to the downside could expand if DaBoyz run this vehicle higher during the night session as we might expect.

When the dust settled yesterday, the futures had chopped their way to the exact middle of the gratuitous range they've carved out over the last month or so.  Traders looking to chase boredom should consider flipping a coin to determine which side of the bet to take next.  However, if someone were to put a gun to my head and ask me to predict where the next significant move will go, I'd say to the 1830.25 target shown. The futures would first have to take out the 1847.25 midpoint pivot (the red line) without having first exceeded 'C' to the upside.  Were that to occur, you could bottom-fish at 1830.25 with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks. Alternatively, an upthrust exceeding the 1866.00 would put bulls back in charge, at least for a while and even though they might not get very far.

DaBoyz rallied the futures in the second half of yesterday's session, but I don't expect it to go much further. The downdraft overshot a 'D' target for one; and for two, it generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart (see inset). The most logical place for a head-fake to fail Tuesday morning would be at the 1855.75 midpoint pivot of the downtrending pattern. Accordingly, I'll recommend shorting near there via camouflage if an enticing opportunity unfolds. This implies the appearance of a bearish abc pattern on a chart of perhaps 3-minute degree or less. _______ UPDATE (10:27 a.m. EDT): The rally has shot past midpoint resistance but so far failed to surpass any external peaks on the hourly chart. That would take a  print at 1866.25, but we'll wait until it happens before we infer strength.  As has become all too typical for this vehicle, there have been virtually no 'camouflage' handholds for getting long OR short, only gratuitous spasms in both directions since the opening bell.

The futures couldn't hold onto the fleeting, short-squeeze gain they achieved on Friday's opening bar, but the intraday high still managed to surpass an 'external' peak on the hourly chart (see inset), refreshing this vehicle's bullish energy. Bulls and bears were in 'dueling' mode by day's end, however, and a clearer reckoning of sellers' strength must therefore await a second leg down. I've sketched this hypothetically (see inset) for your further guidance, but either p or D can be bottom-fished with a tight stop-loss if the pattern that evolves is similar to the one shown.  _______ UPDATE (9:29 a.m. EDT): The futures refused to dip to p overnight. However, I would be wary of a possible bull-trap opening, since DaScumballs haven't been able to gain much altitude overnight. Shorts seem unconcerned -- perhaps for good reason, given the parlous state of the real world, economically and geopolitically, these days. Delusion of the Week is a statistic suggesting that consumer confidence in Europe is on an upswing.