E-Mini S&P

It's early Monday morning and the futures have been down the equivalent of 100 Dow points so far.  Fading Sunday night selloffs is usually a winner, but I'd caution against doing so before the September contract has touched the 1559.75 correction target shown. (Note: At that point, the Dow would be off by about 220 points.)   Since that would be the culmination of a bear cycle that has taken a little more than a month to play out, we should expect a significant bounce of perhaps 2-3 days before bears could push this vehicle still lower. However, if the Hidden pivot support survives for just a short while -- say, an hour or two -- we should infer that considerable selling remains to be spent. ________ UPDATE (10:56 a.m. EDT): The futures overshot the crystal-clear target given above, meaning sellers have at least one more wave of punishment to inflict on this vehicle. My current target at 1518.50 is a c-d extension of the larger pattern shown, as follows: A=1649.00  (6/19 at 5:00 a.m. EDT); B=1577.00 (6/20 at 4:15 p.m.)

If you're a night owl looking for easy pickings, the one-minute chart looks guileless at the moment (11:22 p.m.). The staircase of external peaks along the downtrend shown should provide you with a secure foothold, the moreso if you use the green line at 1642.75 (aka 'D') as a place to start looking.  However, any chart above the level of the three-minute will probably yield an appealing-looking short. On balance, because the market seems unable to resist the siren call of Helicopter Ben, the best play from here is probably to fade sellers.  Keep in mind that we are still targeted on a minimum 1659.50 for this minor rally cycle.

There were some nasty cross currents at work on Monday -- tradable, as will nearly always be the case for camouflageurs, but not easily so. The pattern shown could prove useful to night owls, or perhaps to day traders if it has not panned out by the opening bell on Tuesday.  The 1659.50 target is validated by price action Monday morning very near, if not precisely at, the p midpoint. Notice that there were two distinctive peaks created during the first half of the session.  They lie, respectively, at 1641.00 and 150 minutes later, at  1639.50.  Any b-c pullback that begins from somewhere in-between would be a bonanza for camouflageurs looking to get long. If it happens almost too quickly to catch that would be a plus, since there would be relatively few competitors aboard.  You should plan accordingly by being on instant-alert.

With no serious sellers to oppose them, DaBoyz are making the usual hay on a Sunday night, effecting a so-far six-point levitation in this vehicle. The bigger picture is bullishly impulsive, based on last Thursday's vicious, all-day-long short-squeeze. However, based on a gut hunch, I'm inclined to short into any strength today.  Night owls may be able to find a way to do so directly on Sunday night if the rally peters out before morning.  However, on the 15-minute chart, and most immediately, the best opportunities may come from the long side.  As you can see (inset), there's a series of external peaks that could provide an easy way to initiate a 'buy'. Ideally, any profits you make trading with the bullish flow could be used to cushion the stop-loss for the first shorting opportunity.  _______ UPDATE (11:41 a.m. EDT): The futures have exploded higher this morning, so I've posted the following in the chat room to stoke the bullish imagination: "The 180-minute chart (see inset) shows three bull patterns driving this hoax right now. In descending order of magnitude, their respective point A lows occurred on 4/18/13, 6/6 and 6/13. The first, and biggest, pattern projects to 1746.75. That is congruent with a DJIA 16800 target that has been well noted. The small, and current, frisson projects to 1660.50, and I'd make that my minimum upside projection for the near term now that the 1639.00 p midpoint has been exceeded by a decisive 2.00 points.  However, the rally will be subject to presumably niggling interference at 1643.25, the D target of the pattern starting with June 6's 1591.00 low."

The futures turned maniacally higher from a bottom fully 10 points above our target, telegraphing the take-no-prisoners short-squeeze that was to follow.  DaScuzzballs were allowing only a shallow pullback Thursday night -- one that was not bearishly impulsive even on the lesser charts -- hinting that they will show no mercy when stocks open Friday morning.  If you're looking for a risk-averse way to board, I'd suggest 'camo' patterns on charts of 5-minute degree or less.  As of around 2:43 a.m. EDT, there was an excellent opportunity thereof for night owls. _______ UPDATE (11:51 a.m. EDT):  How odd.  On the 3-minute chart, the futures completed only one minor abcd rally overnight, and it went nowhere. Even on the  opening, with the obligatory short-squeeze to begin the day, the futures could muster no more than bull-trap spike to 1640.75.  The subsequent downtrend, still in progress, points to 1620.75, subject to the destruction of a midpoint support at 1627.00 that was precisely tested just moments ago.

I flagged a 1587.00 correction target here yesterday, and although it looks like a good bet for bottom-fishing intraday, another Hidden Pivot at 1572.25 posted by 'Sa1' in the chat room looks even more compelling. Look at the accompanying chart and you may find that the eye 'wants' to see a quick resolution of the downtrending abc.  Could the futures drop the requisite 38 points -- the equivalent of about 310 Dow points --  in just a few days?  The prospect hardly seems unlikely, let alone unusual.  Traders should position from the short side, using charts of perhaps 15-minute degree or less to identity opportunities carrying theoretical entry risk of no more than 3-5 ticks per contract.

Yesterday's short-lived show of bravado failed to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, so we should expect the futures to head still lower on Wednesday.  If so, the first place where we might look for bulls to find traction is at the 1617.75 midpoint pivot shown.  If attempting to bottom-fish there, as well you might, I'd suggest looking for your opportunity on charts of 15-minute degree or less.  Please note, however, that an easy breach of this 'hidden' support would be telegraphing more downside over the near term to as low as 1587.00 -- a drop equivalent to about 300 points in the Dow. ______ UPDATE (9:29 a.m. EDT):  With stocks opening momentarily, the futures have in fact shredded their way higher overnight, albeit without having generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. That would occur with an additional push of 3.50 points above the so-far high, 1638.00.  On the 60m chart, camouflageurs should note the location of two external peaks that look well suited to getting long with little risk. They lie, respectively, at 1641.25 (6/11 at 3:00 a.m.) and 1642.25 (6/10 at midnight).

The futures spent the whole day failing to 'actualize' the bullish impulse leg that had occurred on the opening bar.  Even adroitly opportunistic markets like this one need a catalyst to move higher, but yesterday there was no economic news of significance in sight -- only the passage of a $955B farm bill whose details are probably best left unscrutinized. Night owls can nonetheless attempt to leverage the pattern shown to get long, but I'd recommend waiting for a second, gratuitous point 'C'  low to form before you pounce. This being Tuesday, odds will tend to favor higher prices.

When Friday's rally had run its course, the S&Ps had just inches remaining to reach the minimum upside target at 1645.75 shown in the chart. The futures had nonetheless created a promising impulse leg with a 1650.00 target that should come easilyy as the new week begins. Catching a ride will likely be difficult, however, since the only prior peak we've got for purposes of leveraging an entry trigger is the obvious one at 1645.75. Breakout artists will be using it for the same purpose, and so I am not recommending the trade except to camouflageurs and/or night owls who have been around the block.