E-Mini S&P

The 1593.75 downside target shown is analogous to the one at 14899 that I've flagged in today's DJIA tout.  It is an obvious place to attempt bottom-fishing or to try shorting if the futures should rally first to the 1619.75 midpoint pivot, which is now resistance. Camouflage is the preferred tactic in either case.  As I've noted in the Dow analysis, an easy breach of the target would imply more weakness to come.

DaBoyz struggled mightily yesterday afternoon to produce a winning close, but as you can see, the damage had already been done via a decisive breach of a midpoint support at 1627.00 (red line).  This augurs more downside to at least 1608.50, the 'D' target of the pattern shown.  Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1623.50 nevertheless, since that Hidden Pivot (A=1645.75 at 11:00 a.m. EDT ) is situated well enough to produce a tradable bounce on the way down. If it is easily brushed aside, however, we could see seller's dominate into week's end.  ______ UPDATE (1:50 p.m. EDT):  After bottoming at 1607.50, the futures are in the throes of a rally that should carry to at least 1618.00.  So far, one trader in the chat room has reported having made hay with the target.

The correction from the all-time high recorded on May 22 looked to have run its course at yesterday's low, 1620.75 (see inset). That's 1.00 point above a clear Hidden Pivot, and the fact that the turn came from just above the target is mildly bullish going forward but would become still moreso if and when the bounce 'goes impulsive'.  That would take an unpaused thrust exceeding a small external peak at 1645.75 recorded Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT.  Camouflageurs should take time to locate this peak on the 15-minute chart, since a 'b-c' pullback from just above it could provide a very low-risk set-up to get aboard. Immediate potential would be to 1648.50 (A=1620.75 at 11:45 a.m. on 6/3), but it could be just  the beginning of a longer ride. _______ UPDATE (11:32 a.m. EDT): Well, well, well. It looks like the algos can tell the difference between a really rally and one with a yellow streak down its back.  Today's was of the latter variety, since it stopped at exactly 1645.75, evidently sensing the same point of resistance that an actual human had identified and deemed significant (see above). The inability of the futures to push above this number should be noted as a sign of latent chicken-heartedness, notwithstanding the fact that my Dow target is still 1550 points above.  This is yet another reason to keep one foot planted on the fire escape as the market attempts to rally into increasingly bad new -- now including yesterday's, that the U.S. manufacturing sector is in its worst slump since The Great Recession allgedly ended.

Bears' best efforts yesterday weren't sufficient to push this vehicle remotely near a 1623.75 downside target I'd proffered. Now let's see if bulls have the gumption to forge higher, first by pushing past the 1660.75 'p' midpoint pivot shown. Long entry has been triggered Thursday night at 1655.75, and so the pattern is fair game for camouflageurs looking for a low-risk buy-in. DaBoyz aren't likely to goose the rally to D=1670.50 overnight, although it looks like a pretty good bet to reach p=1660.75.  Thereafter, traders might have to abide a second (i.e., lower) point 'C' before this hoax can find purchase on the morning's news.

The fact that DaBoyz failed to rally stocks back to unchanged yesterday bears watching, since it's been a while since anything that weird has happened. The Indoos were down 180 points at their nadir, but it should have been a piece of cake to short-squeeze a loss of that size out of memory. Assuming sellers prevail for an unthinkable two days in a row, traders should use the 1623.75 Hidden Pivot shown as a minimum correction target. We looked at this pattern during yesterday's tutorial session and found things to like about it, including a beautifully carved, one-off point 'A'.  Since the target is a comfortable four points above an obvious shelf of structural support created earlier this month, you can bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as 1622.75 -- or via camouflage, which will usually be the preferred way of getting aboard.

Night owls looking for a way to pass the time profitably might try bottom-fishing at the 1648.25 midpoint pivot shown. (Notice that I've used a distinctive one-off A here.) 'Camouflage' will generally be the best way to go, but in this case the patterns looks sufficiently promising to attempt it with a bid at the target and a two-tick stop-loss. Another thing to like about 'p' is that it is not near any prior structural lows that the hoi-polloi would tend to use for similar purposes.

The daily chart is starting to look heavy (see inset), but the selling so far has not come even remotely close to generating a bearish impulse leg.  The hourly chart is another matter, even if the flux of bullish and bearish legs recorded over the last several days looks to be no worse than a skirmish. The  duel would tip in bulls' favor on a rally exceeding Sunday night's so-far high of 1657.75 high by just just 1.50 points.  Night owls looking for an easy way to get long should take note of the 'external' peak at 1659.00 (5/22 at 7 p.m.) for this purpose. _______ UPDATE (11:42 a.m. EDT): The first impulsive push above 1659.00 did in fact generate a very tradable pattern: A=1654.50 (5/27 at 11:00 p.m.); x=1663.00.  Since D=1669.75 has been exceeded by a few points, we should infer that the current pullback will give way to yet another upthrust.

The futures were having trouble getting loft Thursday night, suggesting they might take the path of least resistance to the 1623.75 target shown.  The wide oscillations around the midpoint pivot suggest, however, that it's not likely to be much worse than that, and that bulls in any event are not going to be easily pushed around as the week draws to a close. For 'camo' traders, the micro-peak at 1657.00 that I've highlighted has the potential to be the most opportune spot on the chart for getting long.

Knee-jerk hysteria triggered by Bernanke's empty blather on Capitol Hill created a bull-trap high that exceeded my rally target by 6.50 points. The subsequent massacre has traced out the potential usable ABC correction shown in the chart.  Camouflageurs looking to get short (or long) should note its 1641.25 midpoint support and 1623.75 target.  If you're just spectating, expect a fall to the lower number if the first is breached by more than three ticks. _______ UPDATE (12:35 a.m. EDT):  The overnight low was almost exactly midway between the two targets given above.  The lower of them will remain valid in theory until such time as the point 'C' of the pattern has been exceeded to the upside. However, the market's sharp bounce has made this unlikely.  It is astounding, inscrutable and...ghastly that sellers were able to generate no follow-through whatsoever this morning after last night's avalanche. Hack off this steroid-addled market's arms and legs and it would feel no pain -- would sprint the 440 in record time on the stumps of its bleeding legs.