E-Mini S&P

With the futures unchanged at the moment, DaBoyz are taking mincing steps early Monday morning, a reliable sign that they're fixing to take stocks higher if there is good news, or at least an absence of very bad news, with which to trigger off a short squeeze. We have some very bullish long-term targets to guide us, but for trading purposes the pattern shown is the one to use. It projects a short-term rally top at 1679.25 that is already an odds-on bet, since the p midpoint Hidden Pivot with which it is associated, 1662.75, has already been exceeded by a decisive 4.00 points.  Since the index is in uncharted territory, camouflage traders looking for a good long-entry signal will likely do best focusing on the 15-minute chart or less.  If you'd rather try shorting 1679.25 (without camouflage), an initial stop-loss of 1.00 point is advised.

The rampage that I'd said could end the week is looking more like a quiet consolidation in the wee hours of Friday morning.  This is understandable, given the dour economic news that has crossed the tape in the last two days.  It's also par for the course that the onslaught of bad news seems incapable of generating any real selling, only a shallow correction.  I doubt that stocks will take off today, but camouflageurs should keep 'turnaround Tuesday' well in mind if the goal ahead of the next surge.

A key target at 1647.50 that had been weeks in coming survived for all of a day, suggesting that buyers have merely been getting warmed up. Now let's see how they do versus a minor target at 1665.00.  As of early Thursday morning, the onslaught had stalled a tick from the 1657.00 midpoint pivot. If they surmount it before morning, the week could end with a short-squeeze rampage.

The 1779.75 rally target mentioned in today's tout is shown in the accompanying chart. It is somewhat unconventional because of the elongated and well corrected impulse leg, but it can be justified nonetheless because after getting second wind, the rally exceeded a fresh 'external' peak at 1227.00 recorded in August 2008. There is also discernible hesitation at the p midpoint.  Despite these bullish factors, the futures remain a speculative short from these levels provided the trade is initiated via camouflage.  I'd suggest monitoring the 15-minute chart to qualify opportunities.

If the futures are in fact in a topping process near our longstanding target at 1624, it has become painfully tedious to monitor.  To get short via camouflage, traders should nonetheless continue to look for bearish impulse legs on charts of 15-minute degree or less.  As always, the goal would be to come away from even bad trades with a small profit or a scratch. A decisive move higher could be expected to generate another shorting opportunity near the 1646.75 target shown (see inset), but my gut feeling as that there has been too much consolidation already to propel the rally a mere 23 points higher.  An alternative interpretation is that the 1629.75 target associated with A2 could still contain the move.

We pored over the lesser charts in the chat room yesterday morning looking for low-risk opportunities to get short. Alas, a minor rally with a 1622.00 target fell a tick shy, denying us the easy opportunity we'd sought. This may have been for the better, however, since a far more important rally target sits just above it. (The topmost green line provides the exact number, although, for reasons given here earlier, I'd prefer not to mention it explicitly in this tout.)  Camouflageurs, including night owls, should look for shorting opportunities now, but if the futures blow past the target on the opening bell, 1640.50 (A=1476.25) would be the next opportunity. Traders should exercise a bullish bias at any point in-between.

You should check the archive for the location of some key rally targets not far above, as well as for tactics we intend to use to leverage them. Since higher prices are implied in any case, traders in search of buying opportunities on the way up might want to check out the one-minute chart (see inset), since it is a cornucopia of 'external" peaks suitable for camo-ready predators.

Once again, I am refraining from posting a key rally target that we plan to short in hopes that this will help reduce front-running.  To calculate the target yourself, use these coordinates from the 240-minute chart: A=1375.75 (12/28/12); and B= 1523.75.  Camouflage is advised if and when the opportunity arises, but if you take a lazy man's approach, I'd suggest using a single contract with a 1.00-point initial stop-loss. Keep in mind that any movement above Friday's high in the cash index would imply that your trading bias in this vehicle should be bullish until the target is reached.  Please note as well that a 1648 target in the former has an analog in this vehicle at 1647.50 (also very short-able: A=1476.25 on 2/25).  Check my Sunday post (16:26) for a further note.

Surprise, surprise. A single day of  moderate selling in the face of dismal economic news seems to have rejuvenated OPM-crazed buyers for yet another run-up to new record highs. Keep firmly in mind the rally target that I have refrained from publishing outside of the chat room. This tactic won't necessary prevent our getting front-run when we attempt to get short up there, but it might help thin out the crowd a little. As before, we will continue to guard against getting suckered if DaBoyz should spring a bull trap just above the 1594 Hidden Pivot threshold we've been focused on for many weeks and weeks.